Some micro for the first few turns. Somebody needs to check my working though as I am prone to error with these things. The format should be self explanatory, I give key turns, the total amount of stuff produced after those turns, and then the amount produced per turn until the next key turn. I don't count the 9 commerce you get for free from the palace and starting tile. In all of these options, the first warrior comes very late. Someone might like to analyse the costs of building a warrior earlier. It will affect different options by different amounts.
A: Worker -> Workboat
1: Worker, work whatever
. 0
. +5 hammers
4: Work silk
. 15 hammers
. +5 hammers +1 commerce
13: Worker finished, switch to workboat, work the phf
. 60 hammers 9 commerce
. +5 hammers
17: Gold improved, switch to gold
. 80 hammers 9 commerce
. +5 hammers +8 commerce
19: Workboat complete. Switch to whatever
. 90 hammers, 25 commerce
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
20: -
5 food, 92 hammers, 28 commerce
At this point it's clearly inferior to workboat->worker. For 2 extra worker turns that we don't have a particular use for, we lose 15 food, 9 hammers and 11 commerce. We don't have enough food to work the second gold anyway, and if we chop half a forest with those 2 worker turns we're still clearly behind.
B: Workboat -> Worker
1: Workboat, work phf
. 0
. +5 hammers
7: Switch to worker, work fish
. 30 hammers
. +7 hammers, +3 commerce
16: Worker complete, switch to warrior
. 93 hammers, 27 commerce
. +5 food, +2 hammers +3 commerce
20: Grow to 2, gold finished, work gold and fish
. 20 food, 101 hammers, 39 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +11 commerce
21: Warrior built. Revolt to slavery (note: actually better to do this after second workboat)
. 23 food, 106 hammers, 50 commerce
. +0
22: Switch to workboat
. 23 food, 106 hammers, 50 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +11 commerce
27: -
. 38 food, 131 hammers, 105 commerce
C: Workboat -> Wrow -> Worker
1: Workboat, work phf
. 0
. +5 hammers
7: Switch to warrior, work fish
. 30 hammers
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
11: Grow to 2. Switch to worker. Work fish and silk.
. 20 food, 38 hammers, 12 commerce
. +8 hammers, +4 commerce
19: Worker finished. Switch back to warrior, working fish and pfh
. 20 food, 102 hammers, 44 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +3 commerce
20: Warrior built. Revolt to slavery
. 23 food, 107 hammers, 47 commerce
. +0
21: Build workboat
. 23 food, 107 hammers, 47 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +3 commerce
23: Gold improved, work fish and gold
. 29 food, 117 hammers, 53 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +11 commerce
27: Workboat built
. 41 food, 137 hammers, 97 commerce
D: Workboat -> Grow -> Whip Worker
NOTE: This assumes bronze working available at turn 15 from a total of 159 beakers. This is almost certainly not possible. Note also that if it was possible, then option E could be improved by revolting while the second workboat travels to the fish.
1: Workboat, work phf
. 0
. +5 hammers
7: Switch to warrior, work fish
. 30 hammers
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
11: Grow to 2. Switch to worker
. 20 food, 38 hammers, 12 commerce
. +8 hammers, +3 commerce
15: Revolt to slavery
. 20 food, 70 hammers, 24 commerce
. +0
16: Whip worker
. 0 food, 100 hammers, 24 commerce
. +5 hammers, +3 commerce
17: Worker built, switch to warrior, still working fish
. 105 hammers, 27 commerce
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
18: Warrior finished, switch to workboat
. 5 food, 107 hammers, 30 commerce
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
21: Grow to size 2. Gold improved. Work fish and gold
. 20 food, 113 hammers, 39 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +11 commerce
26: Workboat finished, switch to warrior
. 29 food, 138 hammers, 94 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +11 commerce
27: -
. 32 food, 143 hammers, 103 commerce
E: Workboat -> Workboat -> Whip Worker
1: Workboat, work phf
. 0
. +5 hammers
7: Second workboat, work fish
. 30 hammers
. +5 food, +2 hammers, +3 commerce
11: Grow to size 2, work pfh
. 20 food, 38 hammers, 12 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +3 commerce
16: Workboat complete. Switch to warrior
. 35 food, 63 hammers, 27 commerce
. +3 food, +5 hammers, +3 commerce
17: Fish improved, work both fish
. 38 food, 68 hammers, 30 commerce
. +8 food, +2 hammers, +4 commerce
18: Grow to size 3, switch to worker
. 46 food, 70 hammers, 34 commerce
. +11 hammers, +4 commerce
21: Revolt to slavery
. 46 food, 103 hammers, 50 commerce
. +0
22: Whip worker
. 22 food, 133 hammers, 50 commerce
. +10 hammers, +4 commerce
23: Worker built, switch to warrior
. 22 food, 143 hammers, 54 commerce
. +8 food, +2 hammers, +4 commerce
24: Warrior built. Another warrior
. 30 food, 145 hammers, 58 commerce
. +8 food, +2 hammers, +4 commerce
26: Grow to size 3, work silk
. 46 food, 147 hammers, 66 commerce
. +8 food, +3 hammers, +5 commerce
27: Gold improved, second warrior finished
. 54 food, 150 hammers, 71 commerce
Summary after 27 turns:
A is strictly worse than B
B 38 food, 131 hammers, 105 commerce, first warrior turn 21
C 41 food, 137 hammers, 97 commerce, first warrior turn 20
D is unfortunately probably impossible
E 54 food, 150 hammers, 71 commerce, first warrior turn 24
It looks like a trade off between food/hammers and commerce. I'd be inclined towards the food/hammers of E. The only trouble with E is the first warrior is very late, and building one any time earlier holds the worker and therefore the gold commerce up by probably another 3 turns.