Statistics: Cumulative number of registrations over time

[CanuckSoldier]

Yes we at Civ3players have preped for a C3C member surge for a month now, we just added a 5th Admin and did a cleaning of our forums. Should be the largest surge of brand new Civ players since Civ3 first came out. A good time in the life of the Civ community for sure


CS

 

[Chieftess]

Ok, the chart's in progress. I'm using Quattro Pro 8, so the dates are a little tricky. (I have to insert the dates when the target post count was reached, then manually enter the actual values on the x/y axis.

 

[MarineCorps]

Some people have way too much time on your hands.

 

[Archer 007]

I think that can be said of all us poster

 

[TrailblazingScot]

Hmm.

I decided to do a little research


I joined on Jan 6th, 2001 as member ID 357.

Of those 356 posters that joined before me only the following 7 posters have outposted me.


Dell19 (member ID 161)
Joined December 15th, 2000
7648 posts.

Cornmaster (member ID 71)
Joined November 19th, 2000
3905 posts.

Munzy (member ID 37)
Joined October 29th, 2000
4847 posts.

Matrix (member ID 36)
Joined October 28th, 2000
3554 posts.

Thunderfall (member ID 1)
Joined October 26th, 2000
5927 posts.

Lefty Scaevola (member ID 10)
Joined October 24th, 2000
5414 posts.

SunTzu (member ID 12)
Joined October 24, 2000
4751 posts.

Indeed it is interesting to see how few of the old-timers (well those prior to my joining) ARE still posting, it looked to be around 20 to take a high figure.

 

[anarchywrksbest]

Do not mock Chieftess, for she is a God throughout the internet world. . .

 

[Chieftess]

Ok, here's the raw data:

25-Oct-2000 1 Civ2 General Discussion
6-Nov-2001 1000000 Civ3 General Discussion
25-Feb-2002 2000000 Civ3 General Discussion
27-May-2002 3000000 Off Topic
30-Jul-2002 4000000 Archives: Civ3 DG1
23-Sep-2002 5000000 Off Topic
17-Nov-2002 6000000 Archives: Civ3 DG2 RPG
9-Jan-2003 7000000 Civ3 PBEM Thread
24-Feb-2003 8000000 Off Topic
7-Apr-2003 9000000 Civ3 General Discussion
23-May-2003 10000000 Off Topic
12-Jul-2003 11000000 Off Topic
28-Aug-2003 12000000 Civ3 General Discussion

In the right column, I put the forum that the marked post was made in. I'm also going to post a chart, however, Corel Quattro Pro converted the dates into numeric values, so I don't know how to revert it back, except for doing it manually. It'll be up in a few minutes.

 

[GenMarshall]

I joined in during the slow down of the Civ3 Boom (June of 2002) But Ill be around for the C3C Boom.

 

[Strider]

Originally posted by Chieftess
Ok, here's the raw data:

25-Oct-2000 1 Civ2 General Discussion
6-Nov-2001 1000000 Civ3 General Discussion
25-Feb-2002 2000000 Civ3 General Discussion
27-May-2002 3000000 Off Topic
30-Jul-2002 4000000 Archives: Civ3 DG1
23-Sep-2002 5000000 Off Topic
17-Nov-2002 6000000 Archives: Civ3 DG2 RPG
9-Jan-2003 7000000 Civ3 PBEM Thread
24-Feb-2003 8000000 Off Topic
7-Apr-2003 9000000 Civ3 General Discussion
23-May-2003 10000000 Off Topic
12-Jul-2003 11000000 Off Topic
28-Aug-2003 12000000 Civ3 General Discussion

In the right column, I put the forum that the marked post was made in. I'm also going to post a chart, however, Corel Quattro Pro converted the dates into numeric values, so I don't know how to revert it back, except for doing it manually. It'll be up in a few minutes.

Yeah.. it's kinda hard to read right now.

 

[Chieftess]

You can read it now Strider.

BTW, there's a 1,300,000th post, but I can't view that. It's probably the GOTM staff forum, or another hidden forum... Looking at the posts made around it, it was on October, 16th, 2003.

Anyway, you can still see the surge in posts after Civ3 came out, and the post count has been on a steady rise since then, dispite the fluctuations in Matrix's graph. (That graph starts to go into a general 3rd power curve, then went up a bit in July and December of 2002).


I also spent some time looking for the first 'spike' in the graph. During January 2001, there were 1,000 posts. There were about 1,000 posts per month until April/May. In May 2001, there were 10,000 posts. So, there was a definate spike that spring, going from 1,000 posts per month, to a few thousand. Now, I'm not going to plot every 1,000 posts, since that's just going to take too long. I might do 1,000 posts up until maybe 50,000 posts, but that'll be later.

For those that care, here's how long it took CFC to get each 100,000th post:

Posts		Months
1000000		13
2000000		3 Nov. 2001 - Feb. 2002: Civ3 released and patched
3000000		3
4000000		2 Jul. 2002: PTW goes into beta testing
5000000		2
6000000		2
7000000		2
8000000		1 1/2 Feb. 2003: Rumors of a 2nd expansion started
9000000		1 1/2
10000000	1 1/2
11000000	1 1/2
12000000	1 1/2
13000000	1 1/2

 

[Matrix]

Chieftess, what are you doing? This was my assignment! I'll do some more extensive research this evening. (Perhaps sooner.)

Originally posted by kittenOFchaos
Indeed it is interesting to see how few of the old-timers (well those prior to my joining) ARE still posting, it looked to be around 20 to take a high figure.

Actually, when you take a look at the earliest posters (member list, sorted by date joined) you can see that relatively a lot of "old-timers" have made a decent amount of posts. Apparently being here since the beginning creates an close attachment to this forum, I think. Well, it does for me at least.

 

[Chieftess]

Ok Matrix, I'll let you hurt yourself.

 

[Matrix]

Every post before post #70830 is not in place. That means I weren't able put posts before 09-20-2001 in the chart. Very unfortunate.

But for the rest, here's the chart:

Here's the chart the other way around, which clearly shows that the posts before #70830 are not in the right place.

 

[Matrix]

Yes, I agree, not much can be said from this graph. We were getting more posts each day, but since the beginning of this year it's getting stable.

 

[Stapel]

Originally posted by kittenOFchaos
Thunderfall (member ID 1)
Joined October 26th, 2000
5927 posts.

Lefty Scaevola (member ID 10)
Joined October 24th, 2000
5414 posts.

SunTzu (member ID 12)
Joined October 24, 2000
4751 posts.

Ok, TF has ID 1. That makes sense, doesn't it?

But SunTzu and Lefty joined two days earlier. The have IDs 10 & 12.

Could somebody reveil this mistery?

 

[Chieftess]

There were several test accounts.

 

[Matrix]

That's not an explanation. But I don't have one either.

I have, however, continued with my research. Here's the number of registrations, the number of posts and the average number of posts per registration in one chart. (Did a little cut & paste in Paint Shop Pro...)

And here's the number of posts per day and the number of new registrations per day. Both are an average of 15 days, because I don't have data for every day of course.

 

[Matrix]

I should add that I might had to plot the number of registrations and the number of posts per day in one chart, instead of what you see now, because this implies that only new posters post at this forum. On the other hand, not all posters post here anymore. Most come and go. So the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Perhaps I should change my title to "CFC Statistician".

 

[anarres]

These last 2 graphs are pretty cool.

I am a little suprised at the number of new registrations very day! I wonder how high the Conquests peak will be...

 

[Chieftess]

I think the C3C surge is just beginning. There were over 260 users online this MORNING alone! I've never seen it that high in the morning. In fact, I've only seen it that high at Apolyton. I also noticed quite a few people in the C3C room this morning.