[BTS] Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Playoff Game 2 Thread

[lymond]

Playoffs continue Friday, July 7th on Twitch at noon EDT, 5PM BST!

A not-so-friendly crew we have this time with nary a peacenik to be found on this map.

Watch the preview here, Read up on the game here, and make your predictions right here. All are welcome to discuss the game in this thread and follow along for what will hopefully continue to be a dynamic and entertaining season!

Stayed tuned for our resident warrior queen My's special Vegas contest where you can wager your fake life earnings to win lots fake money!

 

[urbestfriend]

Hannibal once again getting screwed by his start. His capital isn't too bad (good for his starting techs and financial elephants aren't too bad early) but his surrounding land is riverless desert garbage and his neighbors are awful. Mehmed is also cursed to a seafood start without fishing, boxed in by jungle to all sides.

A lot of people are backing DeGaulle because his land seems good, but I don't think the AI is going to throw down the bajillion cottages a player would, and I think his obnoxious AI personality combined with his low production is going to result in him being little more than a speedbump for however many other leaders go after him.

Honestly think Kublai and Louis are in the best spots from the outset. Good land, some weak neighbors, and creative is good for early land claims and pushing conflicts when everyone will likely be pleased with each other early due to shared peaceweights.

 

[lymond]

Although no psychos here, no one on this map has a peaceweight greater than 2, with DeG at 0. Mehmed is one of the top four leaders in the game at .4 unit prob, though he doesn't plot at pleased. Speaking of which this map is evenly divided in that regard.

Like last game, I don't see any outright dominant leader, so a fairly wide-open game at face value IMO. I think all leaders have potential here for victory, starts notwithstanding. I like Hanny's start but I'm worried most about his box-in potential - otherwise, the map seems to have a lot of space.

No bad starts here but neither do I see any particular super starts and no early commerce boosts to be had by anyone. Mehmed's start though looks a bit rough but he does appear to have a good deal of room for expansion.

No plot-> Hanny, Mehmed and Degaulle
Plot -> Toku, Louis, Kublai
(Also, I believe Louis is one of the biggest backstabbers)

No leader here starts with Myst, so relis appear they will be very random and hard to predict. Toku has been known to go religion despite being indiferent to it.

Every leader but Hanny has TW as a starting tech. Mehmed and KK will likely have metals online early.

 

[Keler]

I think Kublai Khan is the only leader that never ever goes for religion and gets away with not teching mysticism for too long thanks to creative trait
And chances for Toku to find is slightly lower than others.

I don't know what are the factors and just random for AIs to tech mysticism first but for instance Louis with aggricult/wheel wouldn't really go for religion techs if his start would have animal resources and no farm/workable resources. But he most usually goes for mysticism early on. If not, Louis might end up getting monotheism creating a third party here.

I can see Hannibal finding one religion too just like in opennig round, planting second city directly west near wineyard and becomes holy city. Between him and Kubilay there seems like a natural desert border. Overall Hannibal needs colossus great light house, left alone startegy to tech enough well and benefit a 2v1 oppurtunity later otherwise I can barely see him as potental runer up only if diplo things go well between him and Kubilay.

Of all people, I think Tokugawa is most boxed in, if not a dumb luck second place then nothing else.

Mehmed has slow start with not much chance for winning too. Obnixous calender amazon surrounding combined with coast. This should be hated, but since there is no workable resources and player turn order 5, his chances of deciding to tech msty should be lower in this case. Otherwise he loves polytheism. He usually goes for religion but not here I guess?

De Gaulle is quite lucky with isolated start, but if he find a religion that could turn out bad for him if religion diplomacy will matter at all in this game. Will it? Or border tension? De Gaulle has good chance for top 2 finish. But I wouldn't want that to happen. If he solo kills Mehmed alone and making ottomans ftd then what would stop him to win. And if not Mehmed then who is first to die here. Anyone except him?

I think French leaders and Kubilay has better chance to win. Since it is so hard to guess religion spawns and if that or border tension matter more for early wars,I can't just blind pick KK and Louis as first,second simply because they might have conflict later.

Though call but again everybody's favorite leader Swimming Pool might get his second win in a row afterall.

 

[lymond]

Mehmed and KK have a good chance of starting very early wars. The question is whether that will hurt or benefit them.

 

[Fippy]

First thought is Kublai..lots of space combined with creative and wheel to connect his stuff.
I think he will be our contest fanboy this time.

 

[Kaitzilla]

The final 3 games of the year.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I saw a few Cultural Victories in my tests for the first game of the season, but even now I'm not so sure what conditions favor the robustness of these glass cannons. In Game Eight and the first playoff, Louis and Ramesses were favored with fast Cultural wins. Off the top of my head, based on their earlier performances, I suspect Louis and De Gaulle will compete in that domain. I don't care for Louis' starting position as much as in the opening round, but plotting at Pleased will help create opportunities. We have seen him chase religions and wonders like they're going out of style, so he is an obvious candidate. De Gaulle surprised me in Game Three by founding religions, building wonders, and generally acting as the tech leader. I don't really see him pursuing Cultural, but competition over religions and wonders could delay the end game in favor of the other victories.

The French culture polemics could very well favor Kublai Khan, pushing him to focus on research and/or conquest. I have more confidence in Hannibal from the opening round, in the sense that he should be able to keep up tech even if boxed in. The problem then is navigating diplomacy and translating survival into first or second place. I have not found Mehmed remotely remarkable this season, so hopefully the tests will reveal quirks in his programming.

The villainously low peace weights give the game the appearance of a fairly traditional championship. Early adoption of religions could yield global unity by way of religious conflict, while late adoption could sow discord that unleashes the AI.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Also, what is going on with resource distro on this map?! I can identify six Copper, of which Hannibal and Mehmed have one apiece, and Kublai Khan appears to start with...four! Am I missing any? Perhaps in future seasons we can explore early metal swaps.

 

[dankok]

Despite the bad land I'm going with Hannibal to win this. Kublai is a perennial second place finisher. None of these AI's strike me as explosive.

 

[urbestfriend]

Alright dropping in Kublai 1st, Louis 2nd, Mehmed FtD.

Hannibal probably survives to the end of the game but doesn't go on, Toku isn't FtD only because he turtles and ends up getting dogpiled later on by civs 2 gens in tech ahead of him. Degaulle takes an early lead but a DoW from Mehmed slows him down and Kublai takes a lot of the contested area between them. Mehmed dies to a Degaulle/Louis dogpile, Degaulle dies to Kublai. Kublai wins by space.

inb4 my predictions are right but kublai turns the slider on and loses the culture race to Louis

 

[need my speed]

DeGaulle sucks as a personality. Mehmed has a terrible start. Hannibal also has a below-average start.
Louis will face barbarian pressure from the northern tundra, from the wide-open lands to his south, south-west, and south-east, and from a potentially aggressive Tokugawa (well, the Japanese are not barbarians, I suppose). If he can mitigate that with his Creative and Industrious traits, and not get stuck building wonders, he may do very well. Otherwise, he may do very poorly - kind of black-white here.
Kublai is consistently good, and although he also faces barbarian pressure (this time from the southern tundra), his Creative trait and his more militaristic nature will serve him well. Plus his land seems to be a bit better than Louis's.
So Kublai wins.

Second... Could be almost anyone really. Even Hannibal (boxed in but carefully navigating religion/diplomacy, teching himself to a peaceful second place) or Tokugawa (powerful military to break open Louis). Or Mehmed.

But first to die could also be Mehmed. Or Hannibal (versus Kublai). Or Tokugawa (war against Louis goes bad and/or Hannibal joins in, or vice versa). Or Louis (if Tokugawa wins) or DeGaulle (if Mehmed somehow breaks out of his jungle and/or Kublai is looking for an adventure).

So I really don't know.

First to die, Mehmed (Kublai expands, gains tensions with Mehmed, bye Mehmed). Second... Hmpf, even Tokugawa's and Louis's starting positions are very much comparable. Fine, second Louis, because he starts with Agriculture and can thus immediately make use of the Wheat. I don't really believe Louis will come second, but he could very well come first, so hey.

Win by Domination at turn, I never know, 315. Nine wars, why not. These are always very random and uninspired questions.

 

[Kaitzilla]

All 6 AI are bad guys, but 3 of them won't plot at Pleased. (Mehmed, De Gaulle, and Hannibal)

Louis should feel better about anyone who adopts his favorite civic, the popular Hereditary Rule.
All the peace weights are pretty close at 0, 1, and 2.

5 of the AI will have +2 warmonger respect diplo with each other.
Only Mehmed will get and give +1 warmonger respect.

Game Mechanics - Beyond The Sword 3.19

War Success Mechanic - Getting the AI to talk and capitulate during war Fully 1/3rd of getting an AI to capitulate involves "war success". A few people have tried to explain it before. EmperorFool mentioned it Kossin mentioned it Tachywaxon (Manco Capac) mentioned it Tachy's explanation seems...

forums.civfanatics.com

Louis is a border tension nut.
Tokugawa, Hannibal, and Kublai also get decent -diplo points over border tension.

Civ Illustrated #1 (Know Your Enemy)

Very, very good!

forums.civfanatics.com

Spoiler :

DeGaulle and Louis will give -1 to anyone 4 or 5 places ahead of them on the scoreboard.

DeGaulle will give +1 to anyone who is 4 or 5 places behind him on the scoreboard.
Mehmed and Kublai will give +1 to anyone who is 3 or 4 or 5 places behind them on the scoreboard.


Kublai does not have horses for Keshiks?

I really like the look of Kublai and De Gaulle's land.
The both have good expansion potential too.
I wonder who gets the 3 gold about halfway between them?

Also, who is likely to get the 1st plains cow?
I think I see 2 on the map west of Kublai.

 

[Plains-Cow]

Do it again, Mr. Mongolia!

 

[Gumbolt]

So much land to grab and Mongolia and French are creative too. Wonder who Toku will attack first? He should get iron. Same for Mongols with early copper but will he just keep expanding instead? Shame no horse.

What worries me is who will go for the religion trap here as no one has myst. This could kill a few ai start.

Degaulle is tucked away but not great leader. Hannibal could get blocked in. Toku will kill his economy or start silly wars.

Maybe betting on 2nd is way here. In theory creative should have the land grab here.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

Not had so much time to think about it this week so here is something a little more off the wall.

1st - Hannibal
2nd - Tokugawa
FTD - Kublai Kahn
Turn 329
Spaceship
10 Wars

 

[lymond]

1st - Mehmed
2nd - Toku
FTD - Hannibal (ha ...and I won with him earlier)

Turn 313

Culture

12 Wars

 

[Kaitzilla]

Time for picks!

Spoiler Playoff Game 2 Picks :

1st - Kublai Khan
2nd - De Gaulle
1st to die - Hannibal
Turn 325
Spaceship
10 Wars

Everyone seems to have a nearby war partner.
Religion will really shake up the bag of cats this game.

Mehmed has a lot of jungle, but might not war with DeGaulle with a good peace weight roll.
Tokugawa is boxed in, but has a lot of production!

I feel like Hannibal is boxed in with the most chances to get teamed up upon by 2 AI.
All 3 of his neighbors plot at Pleased, and Hannibal does not.
Can his starting workboat and Financial teching speed turn things in his favor?

I've sucked the last 2 games.
Need to turn things around.

 

[Keler]

Game 5 again
Kublai is the new Kublai
Hannibal is the new Cyrus
Mehmed is the new Churchill
De Gaulle is the new Boudica
Louis is the new Asoka
Tokugawa is the new Roosevelt

and I imagine their performances somewhat identical here

 

[Plains-Cow]

Anyone else hype today?