Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Game 7 Thread

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Sullla's AI Survivor Season 8 continues Friday, July 26th on Sullla's Twitch Channel at noon EDT.

AI Survivor presents another game open to interpretation. Although we have two former champions here, the only leader to earn a substantial fantasy bid was Suryavarman, indicating one favorite and some ambiguity as to second and first-to-die. While Suryavarman, Mehmed, and Montezuma are all low peace weight leaders, the latter two start next to each other, an arrangement that has not worked out terribly well this season. Charlemagne and Isabella are both neutral peace weight but along with Montezuma all three start with Mysticism, so there is high potential for religious discord. While Elizabeth is the lone high peace weight leader and has high potential to found religions herself, she is also somewhat isolated in her corner and the only Financial leader. If she wins, we will have an All-England Playoff Game Three! Kjotleik has the big bid on Suryavarman, and Henrik a small bid on Mehmed.

Watch the preview here, read up on the game here, and join in the fun by making your predictions here. (You can check out the current picks here). And a hearty welcome to all to discuss the game in this thread and follow along for what will hopefully continue to be a dynamic and entertaining season!

And if one contest just isn't enough, check out the friendly casino thread presented by @Fippy (AKA My)!

 

[urbestfriend]

Surprised at how much early hype Sury is seeing, I don't think the AI can use his omega food cap well and we've seen the AI struggle with the low hammer high unhealthiness flood plain valley starts. And if he sends his starting settler anywhere northward he could very easily get boxed in. I don't really like BK either, his capitol is nice with good commerce potential but there is no food anywhere, I don't know where he puts future cities and of course, there is Monty to his south. Isabella suffers from a similar fate, good cap and then terrible surrounding land.

I would say I really like Mehmed. His start matches his techs, lots of room for expansion, and he trains enough units to weather the Monty storm. Except....


This is basically the only source of copper Mehmed can hope to get. And it likely comes down to if he chooses to send his first settler there, and beats Monty there. If not, his only iron source is that Tundra source that requires a garbage city or a lot of border pops. I don't like his chances of survival if Monty grabs that copper. He does start closer to the likely settling spot thankfully.

Finally, there's Lizzie. Ok tbh. I don't see how Lizzie isn't absolutely running away with this map lol sorry this has all just been wasting time to say this is Elizabeth's game to lose. Her cap isn't amazing and doesn't fit her starting techs (although she can mine a bunch of uncovered hill tiles) but she has Mehmed to shield her from Monty and will be way to busy with that guy to early dec her, and in the meantime she has the whole empty western part of the map to settle while Charlie and Isabella waste time with missionaries and Oracles and stuff like that. She's going to go full Victoria from today's game and settle so much land before anyone sneezes at her.
Look I'll diagram it out all scientific:

Red fights each other. Blue fights each other. Elizabeth gets all of da pink. Science.

Elizabeth first, Sury 2nd, Monty FtD. Turn 290 Space 13 wars

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Seeding Watch:

Suryavarman II is currently the overall 9th seed with a total of 32 points. He was drawn into this game as a Pool One leader before Gilgamesh moved in front of him earlier in the season. At the top of Pool Two, his seeded position is secure for this season, and he also has excellent prospects of moving up if he can deliver this game. With Stalin's recent goose egg, a two-kill performance or second place finish would be enough to put Sury back in Pool One and finally drop Stalin to Pool Two. A one-kill second or win would put him back over Gilgamesh in the seventh seed. A win puts him above Julius Caesar in the sixth seed, with a kill puts him above Kublai Khan in the fifth seed, and with two kills puts him above Pacal in the fourth seed. I'm pulling for Sury to reclaim his spot here, as I think his consistent success deserves the Pool One distinction.

Charlemagne is currently the overall twelfth seed with 26 points. With four other Pool Two leaders below him, he's not in immediate danger of losing his seeded status, although it could happen. Like any Pool Two leader, he has good prospects for moving up as well: a second with at least one kill would leapfrog him to seed 10 above Darius and Gandhi, while a win with at least one kill (and a goose egg for Sury) would launch him up to the top of Pool Two. It would take an impressive and unlikely three-kill win to put him in Pool One above Stalin, but it could happen.

Mehmed II is currently an unseeded leader, but is close: 22 points compared to 24 points at the bottom of Pool Two. That means that he becomes a Pool Two leader with just two kills or another second! The chance for the last ex-champion to become seeded! This would put Hannibal back among the ranks of the unseeded. With a second and at least one kill, Mehmed would leapfrog up to position 13 overall. A win would make him the 12th seed, with one kill the 11th seed, and with two kills the 10th seed. Lots of potential for the sultan!

Liz, Izzy, and Monty all have low enough scores that there is no prospect of them cracking the seeds in this game.

---

The biggest question mark for this game is the central jungle area. That's a no-man's land with no obvious leader who will claim it, but could prove quite valuable in contending for the win! (Or a poison pill war-bait location, either one.) That's something that I doubt will be consistent from play to play and it will be interesting to see how it affects the game. I like!

The second biggest question mark is the religions. Izzy, Monty, and Burger King all emphasize religion heavily (and the other three care a decent amount about it I believe) and start with Mysticism. Who actually founds the first faiths and where they spread ought to be very important this time, another variable I can't predict ahead of time.

Suryavarman is the early favorite and this makes a lot of sense. His starting area is pretty lovely and he has good backlines, plus two neighbors who could potentially be good conquest fuel. I think this map finally favors the low PWs and Sury's in good position to capitalize. That said, this is a fairly production-poor start, so if he gets stuck in a war that he's not ready for then it could be disastrous. I think his fate will be closely tied to how religion and diplomacy shakes out on this map. High ceiling, but a flameout wouldn't be a shock either.

Charlemagne has nice land around him (those triple gems!), but I don't think his overall situation is very good. His land will need time and care to develop, and he's unlikely to get that time. All three low PWs have good positions to take a shot at him, and out-of-the-way Liz is the only higher peaceweight distraction. I imagine he'll be attacked early and often and most likely dogpiled at some point; another poor draw for Burger King, then. His seeded status may also work against him here; I doubt having the inside track on founding an initial religion is going to be a good thing.

I like Mehmed's position a lot! Double corn + Agriculture start should get him off and running quickly, and I'm not so worried as urbestfriend about his metal situation. He's very well situated geopolitically as well. Monty is the biggest potential problem, but as long as he's kept under control then his proximity should be an asset (future easy conquest). Liz is next door and could easily be a soft private conquest. He's in good position to dogpile Burger King as well. I think Mehmed has fantastic prospects here and relatively low danger (now watch Liz and Monty dogpile him out) at the start of the game.

Elizabeth has her own private corner, which is kind of what she needs to do well! IF she can become friends with Mehmed and get him up to Pleased, then her odds of winning the game are very high. However, that's a big IF, since Mehmed is both aggressive and significantly off in peaceweight. If Mehmed attacks her then her chances of winning plummet. Given Liz's track record across AI Survivor, I don't have much faith that things will go her way this time. She definitely has potential, though!

I'm not very excited about Isabella's start; in particular the surrounding land seems quite low in food. If she leverages religion well then she could have a chance to make something of this game (especially if she gets good spoils from an early dogpile of Sury). However, I think it's more likely that she's one of the game's more inconsequential leaders.

Finally, Montezuma has fairly nice surrounding land and good diplo from his position. However, this is Monty. I'm sure he'll find a way to screw it up somehow.

I'll wait a few days before deciding on my prediction. It's especially weighty since my predictions this season are consistently wrong, so whom should I curse this time? Leaning a Mehmed/Sury ticket but we'll see.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Monty has competition this year.

Can he be as bonkers as Stalin?
Did Sullla accidentally click random personalities?

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Attaching "scientific" diagrams to the first post of this thread definitively rejects the random outcomes of the season: this game can and will be read

To urbestfriend's greater and lesser points: It also occurred to me that Elizabeth only needs two regional conflicts (as illustrated) to develop in peace. That said, she seems to have a significant degree of intolerance for the low peace weight leaders, and I think it is reasonably likely she declares on Mehmed. The corn-cow plains hill in between them could be a hard boundary before catapults, at least if they settle it... To the north, it is a bit of a ticking clock as to when Elizabeth and Isabella will meet in the middle, as they are almost certain to follow different religions.

Mehmed's lack of metal security is a good point. Optimistically, he has many food resources in his start and two potential collaborators to trade with for copper. Unfortunately, this season it seems almost a given that Montezuma will attack him first 50% of the time. A pre-metals attack from Montezuma with Suryavarman on one copper and Istanbul on flatland does not look good. An advantage for Mehmed would be growing cities and probably a lot of archers.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

To the north, it is a bit of a ticking clock as to when Elizabeth and Isabella will meet in the middle, as they are almost certain to follow different religions.

What makes you think this? Is Liz really that likely to found and adopt her own religion with Izzy and Monty and Burger King all running around?

 

[danjuno]

Sury: Free space. Seriously, that start is some serious hax!
Liz: Opposite corner from Sury, Mehmed will be a meat-shield from everybody's favorite maniac.
Monty: Will do Monty things and be FTD.
Burger King: Also has a god-tier start, but I picked Sury already, and I don't see them being friends long term. Plus more likely to get pulled into religious wars.
Mehmed: Likely attacked by Monty. Probably can delay him long enough for Monty to implode, but that just leaves the others with more time to grab land. Middle starts are just nasty in general.
Izzy: Exists.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

What makes you think this? Is Liz really that likely to found and adopt her own religion with Izzy and Monty and Burger King all running around?

Financial, Gold/Culture flavor, nearby gold/silver, coast--these are the makings of a mid-game score leader even if Elizabeth only founds four or five cities. The absence of copper in the southwest could make it quieter than the rest of the crescent. And while three of the leaders have Religious flavor, only Charlemagne stands out to me as likely to have an accelerated economy into the mid-game, with Suryavarman more of a long-term contender for later religions. It seems plausible she will survive into the mid-game and be a contender for one or more religions perhaps even as early as Monotheism.

When running tests for her opening round last season, I noticed that Elizabeth and Hatshepsut tended to found multiple religions and adopt one of their own rather than form a religious bloc.

 

[Plains-Cow]

I'm really liking that Khmer plains-cow start...but Mehmed also has a plains-cow start, making him Wowmed.

 

[Fippy]

I struggle to find arguments against Sury winning this.
Maybe if Charlie plays well early and techs ahead with gems.
Lizzy has very little hope in this field imo.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I struggle to find arguments against Sury winning this.

He gets knocked down in an early war due to his high-food, high-commerce, but low-production start?

His poor economic skills come into play and he's out-teched by somebody (probably Liz)?

Mehmed snowballs harder than him?

 

[lymond]

Game 7 announcement is up on the main page. Thanks to Eaux for his Game 6 write-up.

I agree that Sury looks strong here. I shy away from favorites but it is hard not to pick him here. And well, I've done poorly with underdogs this season. Lizzy is going to get pummeled by everyone here - I mean everyone. Her saving grace may be to share relis with Mehmed to get him to Please, as he does not plot. However, Mehmed has the highest unit prob in the game with Shaka, Rags, and Nappy. Lizzy is unlikely to get the first two relis with Izzy and Monty (and maybe Chuck) in the game, but she will found a religion at some point.

Monty should def go after Chuck early, and wreck either's game, but given what Stalin did last game and Monty's capriciousness - who knows? Border tensions will likely be strong with Mehmed despite Mehmed likely adopting Monty's religion.

I see Chuck also getting annihilated rather early by Monty and Sury. He should be a good candidate for FTD despite being IMO a good leader for AI.

 

[lymond]

He gets knocked down in an early war due to his high-food, high-commerce, but low-production start?

I think Sury's production is underrated here. The plains cow helps a lot and he will have some great cities next door if he doesn't settle like an idiot. His start is glorious for a human with all that food sharing, specially with that CRE trait. 4 new superb cities in his radius with food and production.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

for a human

Those are dangerous words when talking about this competition...

 

[danjuno]

A.I. Survivor: Where the points are made up, and Philosophical doesn't matter!

 

[Fippy]

The plains cow helps a lot

In more than one magical way..

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I struggle to find arguments against Sury winning this.

First, I share Eauxps' concerns: He could be an early dogpile target, and in general I am wary of Suryavarman's ability to scale. Last season was an exaggerated example of the sheer weight of unit production and the horrors of nuclear war.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, I am not convinced any of the leaders in this game are "good" AI As I see it, the only positive indication for the whole group derives from Suryavarman's position in the Power Rankings. Charlemagne and Montezuma are among the worst-performing leaders according to the Alternate Histories. Thrasybulos's AI Rumble agrees on Montezuma and includes Elizabeth and Isabella.

These are different indicators, and I could be missing something, but the takeaway for me is most likely these leaders range from terrible (Montezuma) to slightly above average (with Charlemagne standing out as perhaps the most overrated). I am inclined to view this as more of an open game in terms of the leaders.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Picks are in. I ultimately did decide to go with the Mehmed/Sury ticket. The logic is that Mehmed (aka Goodmed after this game) gets a strong start with double corn, then profits off of both a dogpile of Burger King and a more private conquest of Monty (the FTD). He then rolls over England and as much of Spain as is necessary to hit Domination. (The secondary logic is that I'm trying to jinx Mehmed because I'd rather see Liz or Sury win.)

Meanwhile, random.org picked Monty to win a Diplo victory this game. I'd love to see this be correct just for the sheer hilarity of it

 

[Thrasybulos]

My read on this game... is that it's unreadable !
The only prediction I'm fairly confident about is that when the map is replayed 20 times, every leader will score at least a win, even Monty.

There's no strong leader on this map, there's no starting position which seems overwhelmingly good.
This one seems completely random :

• Religions can go anywere, really
• With no backlines but a lot of "shared" room, getting boxed-in on 4-5 cities or expanding to 10 cities will vary from game to game
• There's dogpiles opportunities everywhere, and those will also vary from game to game

Elisabeth could be late to IW and get eliminated early by Mehmed who snowballs from there.
Or Mehmed could miss his Copper spot, attack later, in time to be backstabbed my Monty and then piled on by Isabella, and he would be facing an early exit.
Monty will certainly attack Charly (or the other way round), and Holy Rome looking a goner when Sury joins in... only for Monty to sign peace and Isabella to attack Sury.
Etc. Etc.

 

[Keler]

My before anyone says anything prediction was Suryavarman/Mehmed/Charlemagne and I will keep it that way. No matter how haunted Henrik fantasy team is. If the game indeed turns out to be a Sury-Mehmed game, I am afraid if a late game showdown happens where it puts Mehmed’s score behind an existing creep (probably Montezuma).

I also run some autoplays but with lazy settings. Lazy settings involve Apostolic palace and removes all starting techs from barbarians. No archery turn 1 barbarians that is…

Also 4 leaders nerfed initially, Mansa,Hammurabi,Asoka,Gandhi

And well, the current situation is

19.Suryavarman-149 pts
22.Mehmed-142 pts
28.Elizabeth-120 pts
39.Charlemagne-90 pts
40.Isabella-89 pts
51.Montezuma-43 pts

more to show about this later.
Now that I am done talking about better AI, as for the current map I have not much to say but I feel like Mehmed will settle to north east leaving copper for seond ring. Charlemagne might be settling for north or south horse. I usually don't understand much about settlers. And most barb cities probably appear between Spain and England. If Monty volunteers to attack Charlemagne, Mehmed can settle decently I believe and focus on Elizabeth to win the game himself.