Term 3 CoAF - Operational Planning for the Dutch War

[zyxy]

How should the dutch war be continued?
I don't have much time now, so here are some loose thoughts. Please discuss!


Objectives taken: Rotterdam (-> Chaos), Haarlem (-> Skye) , Utrecht, Holwerd, Groningen (-> Sebadoh), the Hague (-> the Black Hole), Maastricht (-> Regentham).
Main objectives remaining: Arnhem, Amsterdam.
Secondary objectives remaining: Breda, Eindhoven. Perhaps also Middelburg? (There's iron there).
(please correct me if I am wrong -- I don't recall what the objectives were exactly).

Utrecht, Skye, Holwerd have huge flip risks, each needs between 20 and 80 units to be safe from flipping -- obviously impossible. How do we deal with this? Starve? Raze? In any case I would prefer to move troops out of these cities. Amsterdam and Arnhem will pose similar problems.

We have 24 swords (7 elite, 13 vet, 4 reg), 2 horse (vet), 13 spears (all vet?), 4 warriors (all reg?), 2 catapults. Probably enough to take remaining objectives. Quite a lot of our forces seem to be stationed in our unthreatened core region. The others are spread out and quite a few need healing. There are no threats to be seen (only a 2hp dutch sword, and he'll fall easy enough). Btw, we have way too many units for a switch to republic (we would be paying 70 gpt unit support).

Rough plan:

• Main attack is Arnhem -> Amsterdam -> Eindhoven -> Breda. Reasoning: this is roughly an East-West move that takes care of the biggest targets first. Remaining forces will end near Indian capital, reasonably timed for the end of our peace deal with India. Possibly a smaller attack on Middelburg.
• After healing, (some) elite and vet swords should move to vicinity of Utrecht, and from there to the hill near Arnhem -- perhaps with some horse and catapult support. Most of these guys are in the area (near Skye, Chaos, Utrecht, Holwerd) and can probably be on the Arnhem hill in 5-8 turns. Will need about 5 swords for Arnhem I think (assuming three defenders, that seems to be the maximum sofar). We'll need perhaps double that number for Amsterdam. Reinforcements could possibly move north from Skye.
• Horses and regular swords (perhaps a few vet/elite) should defend the area around Skye and Chaos, and (less important) the area near Holwerd. The first group could possibly move on Breda after Amsterdam falls, the second group to Middelburg.

What should we do with the spears? I usually don't have them, so I don't really know
I guess they could defend our attack stacks, and/or pillage around Amsterdam (to try to get its pop down, though that will take a while), and/or help defend near Skye, Chaos, Holwerd.

The regular warriors are fairly useless, not worth the upgrade, and can do MP duty.

Comments?

 

[mad-bax]

All I would say is that you should take a few turns to get the stacks in place and to heal before trying to take on the size 10 cities. I would add a few vet spears to the attack so that they defend first rather than the attack troops. Now the Dutch have no iron they will be pumping an archer every turn from the size ten cities.

 

[Furiey]

Don't starve or raze the cities - pop-rush as soon as they stop resisting. This will drop the population quickly reducing the flip risk and put the city well on the way to building some culture.

 

[MOTH]

Use the spears as garrisons to get cities to stop resisting. Its no great loss if they are lost in a flip.

 

[Provolution]

Move up the elites to the front and get som Great Leaders out of them. Add in Regulars to fill in the gaps to get Veteran experience. Keep Veterans in reserve.

 

[greekguy]

capture Breda, Amesterdam, Arnhem, and Eindhoven. Also pop rush big dutch cities for some culture(we already agreed on killing Dutch before).

 

[Bertie]

Zyxy, your general plan is pretty good. Our current policy towards the Dutch is to capture all of their cities except Delft and/or Leiden (we don’t want to destroy them because we need to gain techs in peace). We definitely want Middleburg; although if we can get it in a peace deal, that’s OK (as long as we get the Republic and hopefully Monotheism or, if they research it, Feudalism). Thus the battle plan of taking first Arnhem, then Amsterdam, Eindhoven, and Breda works well.

After our peace with India expires (another 15 turns) we’ll finish them off, so it’s good you’re also thinking about that. I’ll be polling whether we want to eliminate India or leave them with one city.

I’d get our troops out of our core cities unless we need them for MP purposes (some of the spears and regular warriors can be used for that). There is a Persian galley hovering around Spichester so we’ll want to keep that in mind. I agree that since we have so many spears and a horde of swords that we should include some spears in the unit stacks for added protection. Moth’s suggestion to use some spears as unit garrison is good; I’d also use some of the regular warriors as flip fodder.

 

[Furiey]

As I was doing an overall map again, here's an extract of the reamining Dutch lands:

 

[mad-bax]

I think Arnhem and Amsterdam should be razed. They will be a pain to starve down, plus we will get 3 or 4 free workers each so building settlers to replace them could be construed as cheaper in some respects.

 

[Kentharu]

keep Arnhem and raise the other one since both have a 9 pop

 

[Chieftess]

I'd say we also add Middleburg to the list, as it'll most likely become one of the capitals. I don't want a capital TOO close to our lands...

 

[zyxy]

Lots of great ideas!

I like the idea to use spears and regulars for quelling resistance. Adding spears to attack stacks sounds good. Spreading our elites around to fish for leaders by easy kills is also nice. The Persian galley is a nasty problem, good that you mention it Bertie: if it contains 2 immortals then we have to shadow it with 3-4 vet swords/horses. Spears will be quite useless there.

Does the following plan (some details need to be worked out) have your support?

• we don't seem to need MP's so these units can be used elsewhere.
• warriors and spears should quel resistance in Holwerd, Sebadoh and Utrecht. They should move out of these cities as soon as resistance stops. I would love to authorize whipping, but I can't....
• because of the fliprisk we'll move our battle units (vet swords/horses and better) out of conquered cities, in particular Utrecht, Skye, Holwerd.
• We'll keep a stack of 6 swords and some spears near Utrecht-Holwerd to reconquer if neccessary, and to deal with any Dutch units coming back from China. Could use the support of 1-2 horses once we have them. This stack can also attack Middelburg if neccessary.
• A stack of 4 swords (probably 2 reg, 2 vet) should shadow the Persian galley. Horse support would be nice, could add a few spears if needed.
• after healing a stack of at least 6 swords + 2 spears + preferably some horse will attack Arnhem from the hill to its SE, to be joined later by more units (in total some 10 swords + 2 spears) to attack Amsterdam. Alternatively we could have the whole force attack Arnhem, then heal, then attack Amsterdam -- that is safer but takes longer. Amsterdam should of course be attacked from the correct riverside, most likely from NE. Remaining units will take out Breda and Eindhoven.
• The Utrecht-Holwerd and Arnhem stacks will be composed enterily of elites and vets, with elites spread about evenly. Elites should preferably be used to finish off easy targets to fish for leaders (but we have so many elites that this may not be possible).
• Total forces needed: 6 swords for Arnhem, 6-7 more for Amsterdam (assuming 2-3 losses), 6 swords for Utrecht-Holwerd, 4 swords for Persian galley = 23 swords -- hey that fits more or less
• Result: objectives Dutch war reached; our swords near East and West Indian Territories.
• execution time: around 10 turns to reach Amsterdam (2-3 turns initial healing, about 4 turns to take Arnhem, 2-3 turns healing, 2 turns to take Amsterdam). If we have enough units to split the stack after Amsterdam, then Eindhoven and Breda will both fall about 6-7 turns later (2-3 turns healing, 3-4 to move and attack).
• main problem: flip risk.

As Bertie said, our current objectives are to capture Amsterdam and Arnhem, not raze. Perhaps we should reconsider that, but it's not in my area (hint hint). If this were my own game I would also abandon Utrecht. It is very likely to flip, we cannot afford to loose it, and if that happens it is fairly costly to recapture it (it's on a hill).

 

[Bertie]

• As Bertie said, our current objectives are to capture Amsterdam and Arnhem, not raze. Perhaps we should reconsider that, but it's not in my area (hint hint). If this were my own game I would also abandon Utrecht. It is very likely to flip, we cannot afford to loose it, and if that happens it is fairly costly to recapture it (it's on a hill).

• 
  
  Well, narrowly speaking before we have the opportunity to choose between razing a city or keeping it we have to capture it; but your point is well taken. Our objective is to take the real estate. I'd rather keep the cities, but there are some excellent reasons to raze them and given the circumstances we probably should.
  
  I don't know who has the authority to instruct that we raze cities during a time of war (I'm not sure the Constitution addresses this) but IMO the most logical person to make the decision should be the Military Commander. There can be some military reasons to raze a city rather than taking it - so it doesn't flip and you have to take it again, for instance - so this seems to me largely a military matter. However, in case this happens to fall under my mandate, in my turnchat instructions I'll specifically note that under our current circumstances I consider the decision whether to take or raze cities to be a tactical decision and thus up to the discretion of the MC.
  
  The revised battle plan looks quite good. I think we're going to end up having to capture Middelburg, so I'd assume this part of your plan will be necessary.

 

[zyxy]

Bertie, thank you for delegating this And glad you like the plan, there will be an excessively detailed update later

Of course the citizens should have the last say, and I'll wait a bit for more discussion and then open a poll. Btw, there are of course some nonmilitary implications (like: we need to build new settlers and fill this land, and: we may get a rep hit), so I think this probably is in your department.

I think both cities should be razed. Not only do they pose a flip risk, but they may also cause a flip cascade, i.e., one city that flips exerts cultural pressure on neighboring cities, who will then flip, etc... Under present circumstances we'll have enough trouble to keep Utrecht, Skye and Holwerd from flipping back.
Moreover, we'll get upkeep-free workers, probably of more value than the two cities.

 

[GenMarshall]

If we do raize the two cities, we should be able to create settlers and discuss where to put them.

 

[zyxy]

Of course the citizens should have the last say, and I'll wait a bit for more discussion and then open a poll.

Poll is here.

Draft TC instructions are in the CoAF thread.

 

[Ranger99]

i'm not really into razing cities, if this were the real world and the AI had some inteligence, I MIGHT raze it to show a point, but for this i'd rather keep it, but im kinda new and i dont know how long we've been at war with the Dutch, I like to have what a 'Lightning War' I use the 3:1 ratio, my troops are always positioned accoridingly with my objectives and if an attack fails oh well, MOST objectives are usually taken and i get tech out of the peace deal, 10 turns later I hit again, until that particular civ is DESTROYED, im not into world peace, my rep take HUGE hits, BUT it works. Soo for this i say KEEP the city, it can serve you later, settler-whip it until you have what you want.

What is our culture compered to the Dutch??

If we have a bigger culture we dont have to worry that much, CF's are kinda rare.

I DO like the idea of garrisoning the cities with regs though it is some nice thinking.

 

[zyxy]

Ranger99: You mean 3 attackers to 1 defender? I think we don't have that kind of force available, it's more like 2:1 or perhaps only 3:2 now. If we had a vastly superior force, capable of the lightning war you describe, then keeping cities would be a more viable option, I agree.
I would prefer not to break deals and keep our credit rating spotless as long as possible.

Our culture is pathetic to anyone else's as we have almost none. CF's can also be caused by a majority foreign (=dutch) citizens. If you check Mapstat, you'll see rather high flip risks (Utrecht and Skye at least 5% per turn, for example).

 

[Ranger99]

ahhh, okay i was not sure of our current culture. sorry. is there any place to look at ALL of our overall stats??

as i noticed that we are in Depositism we have a hard time supporting large armies, oh well, i think we will switch soon anyway...

when i said i use the 3:1 ratio, yea i mean in ANY attack i make i use that ratio for every defender there are 3 attackers. I guess we are not far enough to use it yet though.

You're right 5% is quite bigger then usual oh well, when are we going to get more culture??

with the way our forces are positioned i guess razing them would solve more problems, my first analysis was slightly twisted i guess, but next war, (maybe India??) I might suggest using 3:1 for their two cities in our rear. we CANNOT fail to take them. (of course if you have a cavalry, (the gun kind, but i doubt it we will be that far by then) against a spear, use the 2:1 its cheaper, tech makes up for it