The end of history

Rodgers

Following YOUR child home
Joined
Feb 25, 2002
Messages
2,214
Location
Still in the top 200!!
I have heard of a theory developed by someone whose name escapes me (a historian/sociologist or something) that with the end of the cold war we are moving towards a situation where all the countries of the world will become liberal democracies and war will come to be a thing of the past.

Once this stage has been reached we will see the "end of history" with only election results and trade negotiations being worth recording. Sounds like nonsense when you consider 9/11 and the middle east but there you go. Anyone else heard of this? Is it entirely wrong?
 
'Tis the theory advanced by Francis Fukuyama in The End of History and the Last Man, a book (he wrote an article on it first, IIRC).

He has measured his approach somewhat over time; and there is the clash of theories between his and Paul Kennedy's.
 
Yes, we did it at uni, along with Huntingdon's 'Clash of Civilisations'.

FF had some sensible things to so, and is certainly a respected academic, but I don't think his original theory was spot on.

Bear in mind that he changed it between the first and second editions. IIRC, he didn't consider the impact of scientific advances or something or other in the first edition - something for which he was mightily criticised.

This is depressing. It was only a couple of years ago I did it, and I've already forgotten most of what he had to say. :blush:

Huntingdon's 'Clash of Civs.' seems more apt at the moment. I think that his scenario is more likely in the long-run.
 
"Huntingdon's 'Clash of Civs.' seems more apt at the moment. I think that his scenario is more likely in the long-run."

Care to enlighten me here? As you can see I'm not entirely clued up on this stuff
 
In answer to the question, of course it's all rubbish.
Raise your hands, anyone who thinks the major fundamentalist states will become liberal democracies in this century.
We are definitely not nearing such a time.
 
Both Fukayama and Huntington (in the works we're discussing) are products of the reaction to the end of the Cold War. Both wrote the works in question in the late 1980s or early 90s.

Francis Fukayama basically says that the collapse of socialism as prescribed by the Soviet Union took away the last viable alternative to Western-style democracy, in effect ending humanity's 10,000-year search for the ideal political/social system. For Fukayama, in real practical terms democracy is as good as it gets. Yes, people will incrementally be able to make adjustments to democracy here and there and it will always be ripe for reforms but the essential elements of democracy are so applicable and practical for organizing a society that they cannot be improved upon. This is, as one might imagine, a very optimistic viewpoint indeed and it has a Panglossian flavor to it but his arguments about the practical advantages of democracy over all the 19th and 20th century ideologies that claimed they would supercede it are worth reading.

Samuel P. Huntington was specifically reacting to Fukayama when he wrote The Clash of Civilizations. I have been reading Huntington for a long time and think his 1969 work On Changing Societies and his more recent The Third Wave (in which he is much more optimistic than in Clash) were brilliant, but he has a very statist point of view that limits his theories somewhat. Huntington basically says in Clash, "Wait a minute, hold it, hold the celebrations about the end of the Cold War because the collapse of the Soviet-American bipolar world order has unleashed new social and cultural forces that are gonna rock the boat, big-time." Huntington says that a newly-freed world, instead of reaching for ways to strengthen The Global Village through political, social and economic contacts has reverted to its pre-Cold War tribalistic divisiveness, and with a vengeance. The world (according to Huntington) will split into its various ethnic/cultural/religious/regional civilizational components, no one will find anything in common with anyone from another civilization anymore, and the future will be all posturing and warfare.

I disagree with Huntington despite the recent events with 11. September because while in some ways civilizational rifts have indeed flaired, in others they've shrank. While governments have been very slow to react to/with globalism, private citizens and corporations have not and information is flying in all directions across all political boundaries in ways no one could have imagined ten years ago. In his book The Third Wave he talks about how democracy seems to be irresistably spreading around the world; the first wave in the late 18th and 19th century in the English-speaking world and France, in 1918-1945 superficially to other parts of Europe, and the Third in 1989-91 to Eastern Europe, South Korea and parts of Africa. He predicted a Fourth Wave that would engulf the Third World dictatorial holdouts, but in Clash he seems to have decided we're all gonna die anyway.
 
All these theories (and goodness knows how many of them there are) all share two features.

They all have a varying amount of truth, but are not at all entirely correct. I can see what Fukuyama's saying, and he has a point in some circumstances, but it's obviously wrong.
I have a little more time with Huntington's theory, but life is never as simple or straightforward as the theorists would like.

Whatever area of political science, philosophy, social theory, etc, one looks at, the theorists all have a point, but none is entirely correct.
 
One does concur with Huntington that the post Cold War security environment is one characterized by more 'little' threats, rather than the Soviet monolith of old. But that is to do with what is writing in a lengthy thesis on the security policy of the Clinton Administration, so I don't want to talk about it in "my time off". :)
 
I am reminded of respected physicists of the late 1800's saying similar things about physics, ie nothing left to learn. What had happenedis that one path of research had closed off nad the bulk of the work was complete IN THAT PATH. At the same time Einstein was doing his Nobel prize work in light and the groundwork for what became Quantum Mechanichs a generation later and the Bomb the generation after that.

To my mind the obvious simplification is that economics run everything. There is a long line of historians that do variations on the theme of "follow the money." One can go a long ways on that path, but not to the gate. For example, the Gulf War of 1989-90 was a simple minded case of armed robbery on a vast scale. But what of the current shadow conflict? What of Isreal? The war against Isreal has never had monetary footings. This is bad blood in the family. The terrorism conflict has them only at the edges, in the sense that Western Decadence as symbolized in its banks, is the target. There is no aquisative aspect. There are deeper more subtle urges which need scratching.

J

PS Simon, you used "security and "Clinton" in the same sentence. For shame. Indeed "Clinton Administration" is oxymoronic. William Jefferson Clinton is proof that Power is sometimes the target and money only the means. Hillary, well...

PPS What do you think of the premise that Clinton will replace the post Civil War presidents as the most corrupt, selfserving and ultimately worst President in US history?
 
1.) As I said, me no want to talk about my day job on the weekend. Save my poor aching head. :)

2.) Answer: Yes.
 
Originally posted by Rodgers
I have heard of a theory developed by someone whose name escapes me (a historian/sociologist or something) that with the end of the cold war we are moving towards a situation where all the countries of the world will become liberal democracies and war will come to be a thing of the past.

Not very likely. Liberal democracies are well known for starting zillions of wars. :scan:
 
Raise your hands, anyone who thinks the major fundamentalist states will become liberal democracies in this century.

-raises hand-

The indication right now are that the next generation in most Muslem countries are quite westernized. In a recent British survey of those ages 15-25 in nine Muslem countries, responets votes the Us their favorite country.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/805028.asp?0cb=-818104785
Most Muslems have historically be moderates but in the last few decades, governments have used anti-western centiment to vent protest away from themselves. If Pakistan's leader (forgot the name) has his way then in ten years Pakistan will be well on its way to beeing a liberal democracy. I'm not syaing that is is going to be easy or that the current governments are just going to let it happen but it does seem to be coming. I think that when the new generation has replaced enough of the old farts then we will start to see a change towards liberal democracy in the Middle East.
:goodjob:
 
I have to agree - look at Iran, population is made up of mostly young people who want to move towards more liberal (but still Islamic) society. The reform movement is being blocked by the older conservative estasblishment who wish to preserve the revolution's spirit. I expect trouble will start there in the not too distant future unless reforms are introduced.
 
history is not over. There could well be another dark age for all we know. There is not gonna be world peace for a long long time yet. There will definitely be another world war, and i would be very surprised if it doesn't come about relatively soon. Soon enough, another Napolean will come along and plunge the world into disarray.
 
Back
Top Bottom