There we go again... A what-if
- Thread starter dutchfire
- Start date
Spain doesn't necessarily allow all that great of a route for an army to march into France. We could have invaded the south of France directly via Marseille, but that wasn't considered as good of an option at the time. Though I don't recall ever hearing the reasoning behind that. The Germans weren't able to garrison the whole of France, and fight the Russians at the same time. What the Allies really needed was the Netherlands. The Atlantic coast of France lacks major deep water harbors.
Bugfatty300
Buddha Squirrel
Though Fascist Spain didn't allow the axis to use its territory to invade Gibraltar.
Louis XXIV
Le Roi Soleil
I suppose it's possible Hitler could have seen Spain as a threat to his flank - particularly if it were heavily Communist. That being said, it probably would have been difficult to fight in the Pyrenees, which would have discouraged all sides to get involved. I don't think Spain itself was in much of a position to do anything.
A non-negligible part of the Spanish Civil War consists of Republicans fighting each other, so really it depends on how the Republicans win the war and who ended up in power. A Stalinist Spanish People's Republic I'd imagine would almost have certainly joined the Soviet Union in any war against the Axis, regardless of its actual warmaking capabilities. Hitler would invade, or at least try to, and what I think would be a very bloody guerrila war would be fought in northern Spain and the Pyrenees.
The question of an Western Allied landing is an interesting one. It would be up to Stalin, and how desparate he is. If the Spanish leadership is particularly ambitious and/or has not been thoroughly purged by the NKVD, they might even have the bright idea of inviting Allied troops into Spain to help free themselves from Soviet control post-war. Not sure how effective militarily an Allied intervention in Spain would be though. The Pyrenees is a pretty effective natural barrier and Allied armies would have a heck of a time trying to push the Wehrmacht back into France.
The question of an Western Allied landing is an interesting one. It would be up to Stalin, and how desparate he is. If the Spanish leadership is particularly ambitious and/or has not been thoroughly purged by the NKVD, they might even have the bright idea of inviting Allied troops into Spain to help free themselves from Soviet control post-war. Not sure how effective militarily an Allied intervention in Spain would be though. The Pyrenees is a pretty effective natural barrier and Allied armies would have a heck of a time trying to push the Wehrmacht back into France.
Didn't the communists gain influence (in part) because the Republic could not acquire significant aid from France, Britain, and the US? If so, then are we assuming the Republic survives the war because of greater aid from the Soviets or Western Allies, and would that assumption necessarily imply something about the Republican government's inclinations?
I think a Republican Spanish government would want to remain neutral if given the option. It would be inheriting the same strategic position Franco had with even less motivation to get involved--there are some records indicating Franco wanted to get involved in WW2 in exchange for French territory in North Africa, Gibraltar, and other minor possessions, but ultimately the talks failed.
I think a Republican Spanish government would want to remain neutral if given the option. It would be inheriting the same strategic position Franco had with even less motivation to get involved--there are some records indicating Franco wanted to get involved in WW2 in exchange for French territory in North Africa, Gibraltar, and other minor possessions, but ultimately the talks failed.
Louis XXIV
Le Roi Soleil
Well, Hitler wanted livingspace. His goals concerned Slavs far more than Communists. If the Soviet Union abandoned Communism, it probably wouldn't have changed Hitler's plans.
This also works the other way around: France, Britain, and the US were reluctant to support the Republicans in the first place because of the leftist leaning of the Popular Front.
A purge of the rebellious army officers and the gold shipments to Russia would have resulted in a weak, largely bankrupt government attempting desperate neutrality.
As several have already pointed out, the Iberian peninsula lacks riches, and Hitler's lebensraum was in the East, so a Nazi invasion seems unlikely. Yet a prostrate Spain might have been an attractive victim for Mussolini. The Fascist leaders were not reasonable men and logic does not apply.
Speaking of unreasonable, there's little doubt Churchill could have avoided scheming about the Spanish underbelly of Europe, just as with Greece and Italy - but hopefully overruled.
Imho, the only major factor might have been if German military power had been defeated or embarrassed on the peninsula, the early stages of WW II might have been very different.
As several have already pointed out, the Iberian peninsula lacks riches, and Hitler's lebensraum was in the East, so a Nazi invasion seems unlikely. Yet a prostrate Spain might have been an attractive victim for Mussolini. The Fascist leaders were not reasonable men and logic does not apply.
Speaking of unreasonable, there's little doubt Churchill could have avoided scheming about the Spanish underbelly of Europe, just as with Greece and Italy - but hopefully overruled.
Imho, the only major factor might have been if German military power had been defeated or embarrassed on the peninsula, the early stages of WW II might have been very different.
JohannaK
Heroically Clueless
Actually, France was ruled by a Popular Front too, and they were deterred from involvement by the Brits, who threatened withdrawing support in the event of a new war with Germany.
Yay Non-Intervention Committee.
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