trade routes

[jdratlif]

What are the (dis)advantages of trading with the AI rather than internally among your own civ?

I only really care about the trade bonus, not the initial bonus. The AIs never seem to do very well on building big cities. They seem to get to the point of needing aqueducts and giving up. On rare occasion I see them build sewer systems (well, I saw a size 13 AI city), even when playing against "perfectionists".

 

[Magic_gorter]

In the early game you get much higher bonus for trading with the AI. The best bonus you get for a delivery to a city on an other island and far away from the city where the caravan or freight was build. When the game continues your cities will become bigger and with city improvements like superhighway, marketplace, banking etc. you can better trading with your own cities. However you still need to deliver it to a far away city for a better bonus.

Trading with the AI gives you twice as much bonus then trading with your own city.

The city size will be bigger when playing higher levels. We are playing a Deity+4 succession game (4 levels higher then deity) and the AI have cities above 30..

Hope I answered your question....

 

[jdratlif]

Okay, so in the early game when your cities are small anyways, trade with the AI is preferable. Later on, your own civ (or whoever has the largest cities) is the best.

Thanks.

I don't know what Deity + 4 means. I'm playing on King level right now. Maybe they'll do better towards the end-game. I quit my last game and started this one a few days ago, so I'll see what happens.

 

[mpescatori]

I also do not know how to achieve "Deity+4".

I play CIV2 (sometimes MGE) and the max I get is "Deity" - which is, incidentallym the most fun to play.

 

[Prof. Garfield]

Deity plus levels are available only to classic civ2 players, and involve editing the game menus in order to be accessed. The instructions can be found in other threads (try the strategy and tips forum).

Regarding the advisability of trading with yourself or the AI, it depends on the base trade production of the cities in question.

The trade bonus formula is:

TR = (T1 + T2 + 4)/8 if the trade is with a foreign city, or
TR = k(T1 + T2 + 4)/16 if the trade is between 2 of your own cities, where:

TR is the value of the trade route bonus
T1 is the base trade of city 1,
T2 is the base trade of city 2, and
k is the transportation modifier.

I only added k to domestic trade (although it is also available for foreign trade) because it is something that can be improved for domestic cities much easier than for foreign trade (and if the foreigners have it, you probably want to trade with them).
k=1 if there is no bonus
k=1.5 if there is a "critical path" road connection between cities on the same continent, or if two cities on different continents both have airports
k=2 if there is a "critical path" railroad connection between cities on the same continent

Note that for the ongoing bonus, superhighways only matter in the source city (except for the base-trade bonus), so there is no difference between a domestic and foreign city in this case.

To find the point where foreign and domestic trade are equivalent (aproximately; civ 2 uses integer math for this, and I solved with straight algebra), solve this equation:

(S + F + 4)/8 = k(S + D + 4)/16,

Which works out to

F = (k/2)D + ((k - 2)/2)S + 2(k - 2)

where

S is the source city base trade
F is the prospective foreign city base trade
D is the prospective domestic city base trade

Note that (k - 2) will always be negative or 0.

If k = 1 (where there is no transportation bonus for the domestic delivery), the solved formula is:

F = D/2 - S/2 - 2

For the mathematically challenged, here is the meaning of these equations:

The greater the base trade in the prospective domestic destination, the better it is to deliver to that city; the greater the trade of the source city, the better it is to deliver to a foreign city. Moreover, for k = 1, if the domestic destination has less than 4 more trade than the source, trading with a foreign city will always be better, even if that foreign city has 0 trade!

If k = 2, compare the trade of the two possible destinations directly.

 

[Peaster]

I agree with MG and PG. If you want some simple basic principles, try these:

* The one-time bonus usually matters more than the ongoings. If it is approx 130 gold or more, you have made a profit, because it costs approx 130g [= value of 50 shields] to make a van. Assuming the beaker bonus matters to you [it may not matter much in a conquest game], then
even a 65 gold bonus is OK.

* Start trading ASAP to build a strong economy ASAP. That means getting Monarchy, Trade and MapMaking ASAP. Build triremes, vans and Marco ASAP [and the Lighthouse if necessary]. You'll probably need at least 8 to 10 cities, including a few ports, for this. More is better.

* In the early game, you can usually get 130g or more by delivering overseas to an AI city that demands your goods. I'm assuming your city makes at least 8 to 10 arrows [for example, a size 4 city celebrating under Monarchy should do]. You might omit one criterion [overseas, AI, demanding, big city] if the city are bigger or the distance is large. But it is usually better to plan a few large bonuses, than to send out a zillion vans at random. I much prefer to have ALL the critieria in place.

* Try to trade mostly in Hides, because Hides supply and demand don't get blocked. If one of your cities makes Hides [and there is some overseas AI demand for it], you can make that city your highest priority. Rush-buy zillions of Hides there, and promote that city [Colossus, marketplace, growth, roads or ship-chains to it] to maximize bonuses. You can make huge profits from such a city [called a Super Trade City or STC], though Hides supply may dry up late in the game, forcing a change of strategy.

* It doesn't matter much if you are at war with the AI. You can deliver anyway, though it is safer if the AI city is on the coast, or on a longish road.

* Delay Navigation and Invention [because of penalties to bonuses]. After that, you'll need much bigger cities [from Pyramids and/or Republic growth] and distances [RRs and more/better ships] to get decent bonuses. I don't play the Modern Age much, and won't advise you on Modern trade tricks [but consider airports, superhighways, etc].

I hope this helps.

 

[Prof. Garfield]

* The one-time bonus usually matters more than the ongoings. If it is approx 130 gold or more, you have made a profit, because it costs approx 130g [= value of 50 shields] to make a van. Assuming the beaker bonus matters to you [it may not matter much in a conquest game], then
even a 65 gold bonus is OK.

While I agree that the initial bonus is usually most important (an exception is if you are looking to get extra trade in a city to help it celebrate), I have to take a bit of issue with your "minimum return" numbers.

The main issue is that gold and science are not interchangeable, at least not in arbitrary quantities. While one trade can produce 1 gold or 1 science, you can't trade produced gold for an equal amount of science, or vice versa. The most you can do is cut taxes or science in order to increase the other (provided you have enough "wiggle room" in that direction with your maximum rate). Unless you are really trying to increase your science and have a large surplus of gold, rushing 65 gold caravans is going to cause you problems, regardless of how much you value science.

On the other hand, a 65 gold delivery is acceptable if you built the caravan with city production (provided there was nothing else to build). Shield production can always be traded for aproximately 1 shield to 1 gold by building and selling improvements (but consider the premium for the time delay and wasted shields), so getting more than 50g out of a caravan is usually a good deal (but you have to figgure in the effort of getting the caravan to a destination), especially if you have use for the science.

A final thing to think about is that, except for hides, there is a limit to the number of caravans a city can produce before running out of commodities. Rushing 130g caravans for ~120 gold is a bad idea if you run out of commodities, unless you are particularly concerned about the science or the ongoing route.

 

[Peaster]

@ProfG: Some players just want to know the game mechanics, no matter how complicated, and maybe they can take it from there. But others, especially newbies, might prefer basic guidelines - which advanced players seem so reluctant to share! I hope everyone understands that there may be exceptions, and that choices may depend on the situation or the player's style.

If you can suggest a better basic guideline than 130/65, I'd be interested. Otherwise, I'll stand by it. There are players, even advanced ones, who routinely get bonuses under 40g. They'd almost surely improve their overall results by using the 130/65 guideline, even if used rather blindly.

I tend to use "130" in my conquest games [or a bit higher, because of "interest", but I'd rather not go into that here]. Landing players seem not to agree very much, but some have suggested to me a cutoff of about 50, which I think is too low. As you say, my 65 may still be too low, especially in a civ with limited cash flow. But players who do not maximize taxes, eg who do not need gold more than beakers, probably shouldn't sneer at a 65g bonus.

Your point about a 130g van blocking supply makes sense, one reason I suggested planning around Hides. Second, my civs continually grow, so if one city gets blocked, there are always more cities rising up to make more vans, if needed. Last, I suppose everyone sees that getting 130g for a van is not so good as getting 500g. They should not always take their first 130g opportunity ["it is usually better to plan a few large bonuses, than to send out a zillion vans at random"].

I am not 100% sure what you mean about the value of beakers, gold and shields. I understand that they are not interchangeable and that not all players agree on their relative values. However, I've discussed this with advanced players at Apolyton [DaveV, La Fayette, SlowThinker, Grigor ...] and there seems to be a consensus that one can imagine

1 shield = 2 gold [some say 2.5 gold] and 1 gold = 1 beaker

Again, these are just guidelines for normal play and for thinking and discussing. Not perfect, like mathematical theorems !

 

[jdratlif]

I haven't read (just skimmed) all the newer replies yet, but it looks very interesting.

Yes, I am one of those players who want to know the mechanics, no matter how complicated. Thanks for that. I will definitely look into that very soon.

Also, yes, I was talking about ignoring the initial gold bonus. I am trying to keep my cities celebrating in my republic/democracy. I am playing on a giant mega-continent which all the remaining AI players share with me.

I'm not sure I quite understand the "value" of shields you were discussing, but maybe it will make more sense when I've read it more fully.

Thanks to all.

 

[jdratlif]

Okay, this is interesting, but brings up more questions.

First, @Prof Garfield, is your formula solely for calculating the initial gold bonus? I'm getting confused by terminology. Ttrade bonus, initial bonus, etc. I would call the money you get on delivery the gold bonus (or maybe the delivery bonus), and the trade generated thereafter the trade bonus. If you could clarify the terminology, I would very much appreciate it.

Second, I guess I'm confused about trade routes. You're saying supplies vanish, and with them the associated trade routes? I think I've seen this, but I thought I was confused and forgot to send a freight from the city.

But Hides supplies are endless? If you have them they go on forever? No supply or demand ever runs out?

Thanks.

 

[Peaster]

Also, yes, I was talking about ignoring the initial gold bonus. I am trying to keep my cities celebrating in my republic/democracy. I am playing on a giant mega-continent which all the remaining AI players share with me.

OK; I can see how the ongoings could be important to you in that case. Normally, I'd probably just raise my luxury rate and depend mainly on bonuses for gold and science, but maybe that doesn't work so well in your game.

I'm not sure I quite understand the "value" of shields you were discussing, but maybe it will make more sense when I've read it more fully.

I admit it is a fuzzy concept, but having a value system helps with many decisions. For example, I usually won't rush-buy units if I have to pay for two rows at once [that's 60 gold for 20 shields]. I am usually unwilling to build and sell barracks [40 shields for 40 gold]. Assuming these habits are correct, the value of a typical shield is greater than 1 gold, but less than 3 gold. I doubt there is a universal "right answer" that applies to every situation, but 1 shield = 2 gold seems to be a good approximation.

Most players don't think this way, but some very strong ones do. I use these values OFTEN in my games. Should I produce a settler or a caravan ? How much is a van worth ? How much is a new city worth ? A road ? With a value system, these are fairly routine calculations.

 

[Prof. Garfield]

Peaster,

What I meant to say was that the 130 gold threshold was rather low if you were rush buying the caravans, which is how I understood your comment about 130g being the aproximate value of 50 shields. 130g is decent if you are sending out a caravan that was not rush built, particularly if it is a non-demand caravan, but rush-buying caravans using only a 130g threshold as a return can deplete your commodity stockpile rather quickly once you hit mid game (in one of the few GOTMs I played, I was using a 130g threshold and frantically sending (junk commodity) caravans to a foreign city with colossus in order to achieve 1 tech per turn, and I eventually had trouble finding cities to rush build caravans in) and it might be wise to invest in growing your cities a little before sending the caravans out for so little gold return.

It really depends on why you are sending the caravan. If you want a little extra trade in a city (to help it celebrate) the bonus is not (particularly) important, and you can send a junk commodity (salt, beads, etc.) to the best foreign city for that purpose. 130 gold bonuses, however, are not a good sign if you have been sending demanded commodities over to a prospective trading partner. It may be worth dumping a boat load of caravans for that kind of return (rather than delaying payment and using boat time to send them to another location), but you should look at other options before sending more in that direction.

I really don't have a better guideline to suggest than yours, however. I usually decide what is reasonable based on the individual circumstances of the game. If, for some reason, 130 gold was the best I could do, I might send a few ships out from time to time, but I wouldn't bother establishing a shipchain, because the returns wouldn't justify the expense.

What I was trying to get across regarding the gold, science, and shields is that an "exchange rate" between different products might change as you try to "exchange" them to a greater extent. If you only have 1 or 2 65g caravans, a 1 to 1 gold-to-science rate might be accurate. If, however, you plan to rush 20 of them, you better have 1300 gold sitting around that you want converted to science in order for the exchange rate to hold. If you only have, say, 400 gold now (or comming in in the near future), you will find that a 1 to 1 exchange rate will break down.

With gold and shields, on the other hand, there are exchange rates fixed by the game. You can always sell improvement for 1 gold for a shield, so if you start to value shields at less than 1 gold, you can build and sell improvements to effectively trade those shields for gold. On the other hand, if you start to value shields at more than 2.5 gold, you can buy units with your gold. This means that your gold-to-shields exchange rate will always be between 2.5 to 1 and 1 to 1. If you are rushbuying a lot, your shields will be worth 2.5 gold. On the otherhand, if you have a backwater city where you don't have any great desire to build anything, shields produced in that city will be worth much less, because you were not planning to rush buy anything there anyway.

 

[Prof. Garfield]

First, @Prof Garfield, is your formula solely for calculating the initial gold bonus? I'm getting confused by terminology. Ttrade bonus, initial bonus, etc. I would call the money you get on delivery the gold bonus (or maybe the delivery bonus), and the trade generated thereafter the trade bonus. If you could clarify the terminology, I would very much appreciate it.

The formula I gave is the ongoing bonus formula (the extra arrows that a city produces for having a trade route).

Unfortunately, the term "trade" can mean a few things in civilization, the arrows that a city produces, and the process of using caravans (except for wonderbuilding). Both of these are very important, and the context will have to be used to determine the exact meaning. In this discussion, if gold is mentioned, it will almost certainly be refering to the delivery bonus.

Second, I guess I'm confused about trade routes. You're saying supplies vanish, and with them the associated trade routes? I think I've seen this, but I thought I was confused and forgot to send a freight from the city.

But Hides supplies are endless? If you have them they go on forever? No supply or demand ever runs out?

Once you build a caravan, the commodity is "blocked" and you can't build another caravan carrying that commodity (unless you use it for wonder building). This means that a city can only produce 3 caravans (other than food caravans). Eventually, the game re-calculates the commodities a city supplies and demands, and you may get new commodities to load your caravans with. This means that you are limited in the number of deliveries you can make (whether you actually hit this limit is another story). Hides, however, do not get blocked when they are built, so you can build as many as you like as long as the city supplies it. Moreover, demand for hides does not get blocked if you deliver it, unlike other commodities.

 

[RickRickRICK]

Trading with the AI gives you twice as much bonus then trading with your own city.

And what about with other humans, in a multiplayer game? Does this apply?

 

[Prof. Garfield]

And what about with other humans, in a multiplayer game? Does this apply?

Technically, it is trading with "foreign civilizations" that doubles the bonus. Since most of the discussion on these boards is about single player, the term "AI" is often used synonymously with "foreign civilizations." I don't play multiplayer, but I am very confident that you would get a double payment. Getting your caravans there safely might be a problem, however.

 

[Ace]

Technically, it is trading with "foreign civilizations" that doubles the bonus. Since most of the discussion on these boards is about single player, the term "AI" is often used synonymously with "foreign civilizations." I don't play multiplayer, but I am very confident that you would get a double payment. Getting your caravans there safely might be a problem, however.

Your correct. Since Classic didn't have a Multiplayer function, the term AI was all that was needed. And when MGE came out, they didn't change the terminology. You still only have two choices, trade with your own cities or trade with another civ. It doesn't matter if its AI or human controlled, (except that a human player will probably slaughter your vans...).

 

[Peaster]

Peaster,

What I meant to say was that the 130 gold threshold was rather low if you were rush buying the caravans, which is how I understood your comment about 130g being the aproximate value of 50 shields. 130g is decent if you are sending out a caravan that was not rush built ... and I eventually had trouble finding cities to rush build caravans in...

No ... The history of the van [rush built or not] doesn't matter! This is clearer if you play using a value system. In your extreme case, where each van is RB'd and only gets a 130g average return, the van system is barely sustainable. So, aim for an average return of at least 200g, so that you are making a clear profit, and trade is helping you achieve your other goals in the game. If a few vans only return 130g, I wouldn't consider them to be mistakes, but they aren't really helping with the sustainabliity issue. I'd consider a 40g van to be a pretty clear mistake [some players seem to be happy with them, but haven't explained clearly].

I understood your comment about getting blocked. To summarize my response; 1) Try to deal mainly in Hides, especially in the first half, so that blockage is a non-issue. 2) Keep making more cities, so that if some cities get blocked, you have others. 3) The alternative to making a 130g van and getting blocked is - wait and get blocked later. This may be OK if you are in the middle of a republic-growth phase [so your expections for bonuses are growing very fast] but interest theory suggests it is normally better to get the bonus ASAP and re-invest it. Also, acccording to solo's work, the sooner you get blocked, the sooner you get unblocked [on average].

It really depends on why you are sending the caravan.

I partially agree, in the sense that there are exceptions to every rule [except maybe in mathematics]. I think my guidelines apply in most situations, but I have made some assumptions, which are based on lots of games and discussion. Maybe these assumptions are debatable:

1) The initial bonus, especially the gold part, matters more than the ongoings. The only exception I can imagine would be for celebrating. But [at least in my games] celebration usually isn't that hard to achieve, by building WoWs and/or moving up the luxury bar for a short time. In a fairly large civ, the costs involved are negligible.

2) You have decided that your map can support heavy trade, and you have invested wisely in that strategy [for example, if playing on a small map, with one continent, I probably wouldn't bother to trade at all]. So, you are getting frequent bonuses, averaging over 200g, and trade is helping you achieve your other goals [growth, conquest, science, whatever].

3) You have some rational trade and/or growth strategy in place. I am thinking of the Hides strategy I mentioned already, or something like ICS growth. I suppose there are many others. You are playing for conquest or landing, without excessive delays. I am not sure if my rules apply to games for High Score [but as far as I know, those games do not require any particular trade strategy] or to OCC, multi-player, etc.

I really don't have a better guideline to suggest than yours, however. I usually decide what is reasonable based on the individual circumstances of the game. If, for some reason, 130 gold was the best I could do, I might send a few ships out from time to time, but I wouldn't bother establishing a shipchain, because the returns wouldn't justify the expense.

OK. It is wise to adjust to specific situations. On the other hand, Civ2 is fairly complex, and we can think more deeply about it with a foundation of general principles, or even a value system, rather than starting from scratch each time. I think this is proven in comparison games and pbems. [also, about the shipchains, see assumption 2 above].

What I was trying to get across regarding the gold, science, and shields is that an "exchange rate" between different products might change as you try to "exchange" them to a greater extent....

Yes, the fair exchange rate is somewhat variable, but it is not arbitrary, and not useless. The rates I posted are fairly accurate for a "generic" Civ2 situation. Along with some basic math, they are very useful for "generic" decision-making. For example, making improvements in order to sell them for gold is usually a very bad idea. Granted, there may be some rare exceptions to that, but this is usually a no-brainer. Other decisions are more complex - Shall I place my workers on fish or forest ? Should I rush buy a settler, or a van, or neither ? What is a fair price for that AI city which I want to bribe ? Should my settler stop to build a road ?

If you don't like making decsions randomly, and I don't, you can evaluate all these with math + a value system [+ a little healthy skepticism]. As I said, it doesn't work perfectly, but it seems to work better than the alternatives.

About Human Opponents: I cannot speak much about online multi-player games, since I've only played a couple. But I have played in several PBEMS. In those, it was quite rare for a human player to destroy another player's vans. In many cases, the humans formed alliances, actively welcomed foreign vans, helped with transportation issues, etc. In other cases, the humans were at war, but enemy vans still sneaked into coastal cities from boats. Maybe others have different experiences ?

 

[timtofly]

In most of my games I never did any early trade routes do to the fact the AI always destroyed my camels. I usely did trade routes after vans with the help of better road structure and railroads.

 

[Magic_gorter]

As soon as I have Marco Polo I start to trade with the AI. Even knowing I might not getting huge profit (those vans are not RB). Getting every city one or more trade routes is in my opinion important for fast research in the early game. With MPE it's easy to keep the AI friendly and they won't attack my camels.

 

[Peaster]

Even knowing I might not getting huge profit (those vans are not RB). Getting every city one or more trade routes is in my opinion important for fast research in the early game.

Can you explain your thinking in more detail ? I'm guessing that you are getting approx 1-2 extra beakers per city per turn from these routes, and that "not getting huge profit" means your initial bonuses are negligible [averaging 40g or less ?]. Your cost is 50 shields per city. This sounds like a bad deal for you! For example, you could use those shields to make settlers and new cities instead, with a better boost to your beaker production [not to mention shields, etc]. But maybe I am missing something ?

BTW - It sounds like I am somewhere between you and Prof Garfield on this... he thinks my 130/65 figures are [often] too low, and you think they are too high [or simply not useful] ?

I never did any early trade routes do to the fact the AI always destroyed my camels.

Odd. Early trade routes are quite valuable in most games, so maybe you should try again. Unless you are at war with the AI, your vans should be fairly safe. Also, it is faster and safer to trade with coastal cities ... ideally, the camel never has to touch dry land.

@ProfG: After re-reading this thread, I think there may have been a little confusion. I have been focusing on the decision to build a van with a predicted bonus of at least 130g [I'd probably do it]. Maybe you have been focusing on the turn the van arrives at the first AI city ? I'd only accept 130g then if I was pretty sure I couldn't get more elsewhere, and fairly soon. To me, that is a completely separate decision from the first one [to build it].