Aggressive isn't bad, but it just doesn't come anywhere close to what some others can do for you. I love being able to give my axemen cover right out the gate with a barracks, but I don't see it as quite mid-tier.
Protective with double production speed of jails and security bureaus would at least not make it so horrible. Or even something like opponents espionage missions are 25%/50% more expensive would also help balance it out.
Why not? Every unit that survives battle is a unit you don't have to produce and another unit your enemy has to replace. And when those specialty promotions confer a +25% combat bonus, which translates into a +30% chance of victory, that's nothing to sneeze at.
yes the power of the aggressive trait is all in the early game. By the mid-late game a civ running theo and vassalage can have units that are almost identical to an AGR civ's units, but the early game is another matter. In that war of chariots/axes/swords the AGR trait gives you an incredible advantage, it allows you to create shock, cover, medic, or combat 2 units. And think about it, which war is the most important war? Your first one.
On this point of Aggressive having all its power in the early game, I firmly disagree. An Aggressive civ running Theocracy and Vassalage can dominate the mid-game, and that is the ultimate expression of utilizing your bonus to the max. Think about it this way: the "cost" to get a promotion is the number of experience points you need before you are able to select the promotion. For March (one of my favorites), you need Combats I-III and then you can select it, so its cost is 17 XP, 13 if Charismatic. For an Aggressive leader, the cost is 10 XP, 8 if Boudica. Therefore, an Aggressive leader will always have his mainline units able to access stronger abilities out the gate than a non-Aggressive leader, right up until the end of the game.
I would argue the ability loses its power when aircraft enter the arena as well as tanks--in this case, Charismatic takes over as the dominate warmonger trait because Aggressive doesn't grant bonuses to these units. Even in the Middle Ages, though, Aggressive + Barracks + Theocracy or Vassalage enables you to get Combat II/Formation pikemen out the gate from any city, which is great against the cavalry-loving AI.
Maybe I'm just bitter about losing several pikemen vs. knight battles when I was favored at 60% or higher. But I would argue that Aggressive retains its punch well into the age of gunpowder units.
However, I do agree the first wars are the most important.
Spiritual is given my honorable mention for not being in the top tier, and is the prime example of a trait being only as strong as how you use it. UWHabs and Alrin Kharr have it right.
I've been experimenting with Creative, giving it a +3 culture per turn instead of a +2, and then removing a double production building. I think it is just way too strong that way and am planning to switch it back.