Twenty Forty-Five: Pre-thread- 'The Years Between'

[Immaculate]

Twenty Forty-Five: The Years Between

Dual Forums

I am also running this thread on another forum.

Introduction

Welcome to the pre-thread for Twenty Forty-Five. Here we’ll collaborate to write the ‘history’ of the world for the years between 2015 and 2045.

Our job, when writing the history of 2015-2045, is to create a world that is realistic, consistent, and interesting.

History-building will be broken into three 10 year ‘turns’ and at the end of the third decade/turn, I’ll initiate the game thread, assign nations (in conjunction with player requests), and provide stats, and we’ll begin a more traditional style of play.

Players

I hope to get at least 10 dedicated players to participate in the pre-thread world building. If there is not enough interest, I probably just won’t run this game.

Nation Claims

There are no nation claims during the pre-thread world-building. I encourage multiple players to work together to develop histories that span the entirety of the globe.

Those players who wrote consistent, realistic, and believable histories for the ‘years between’ or who otherwise contributed to world-building to a greater extent will have first choice of nations when the game starts.

The Turns

At the beginning of ‘the turn’, I, as moderator will provide some basic outline of events that will occur in that decade. You as players will provide additional events and develop the ‘whys’ and ‘hows’ of the history to make it believable and consistent. During the course of the world-building, I will try to provide direction and guidance with a particular focus on realism.

Each player is free to develop whatever events they like for the decade currently under development (again, with a focus on realism and believability). Each event should get its own post. So if you want to introduce three events, then please use 3 posts.

The events you write about can focus on a nation or a region, or cast a wider net and include actors from across entire globe. They can be fairly minor (like a foreign policy stance) or more wide-ranging. They can include events derived from human decision or natural disasters or whatever you would like.

Each event should include,
1. dates
2. a one sentence summary (so I can put it in a timeline)
3. a more detailed description of the event
4. the ‘why’ of the event. As much as possible include references to either current events or the events described by other players (or yourself in other posts). Please focus on realism and don't be upset if other players tell you its not nearly as realistic as you think it is.
5. the effects of the event on people, cultures, history, whatever.

As much as possible, events written by one player should reflect or incorporate the events written by another player.

Criticisms

Players should do their best to intelligently and politely critique the events of other players (and the mod) with the intention of improving them (typically by making them more realistic).

Moderation

Once we feel we have sufficient ‘history’ written for the decade, I will moderate the decade, writing a brief history of the events in that decade and how they interrelate. In the event of two players writing events that don’t ‘mesh’ I’ll write some version of either of the events that is either more plausible, or more interesting.

I’ll then outline some of the major events of the next decade and we’ll repeat the process.

 

[Immaculate]

2015-2025

Outline of the next decade:

• Energy prices continue to see a slow steady increase but we do not face any ‘energy crisis’. Continued exploration and rising prices means that new sources are found and developed. Green energy continues to expand but in the face of continuing oil and fossil fuel discoveries never becomes dominant. Nuclear fusion is not a thing.
• Droughts and issues relating to fresh water shortages continue with significant economic impacts. There is no ‘magic bullet’ to deal with the issue; instead conservation and resource management become more and more important.
• Climate change continues at its current pace with increased incidences of extreme weather.
• Humanity continues to roughly follow it current growth rates (unless you write events to the contrary for a particular region or nation).
• A major agricultural disease strikes the world in the early 2020s creating food scarcities. I was imagining some sort of wheat blight like we currently face periodically but on a larger scale.
• New forms of computing are developed (perhaps optical computing?) but not widely adopted commercially. Perhaps some governments or corporations adopt it for their intranet?
• Augmented reality is increasingly common. Google glasses (or some version thereof) is very common by the end of 2025 and most people experience reality and the internet simultaneously and continuously. Connectivity of individuals and organizations expands exponentially.
• Mind-machine interface devices are increasingly complex but there is no such thing as ‘artificial neuronal interface’ like for the matrix or anything like that (yet).
• Cyber-espionage, primarily economic/industrial continues.
• In terms of military development, weaponized lasers are increasingly realistic and incorporated in larger platforms. Other than that, you are welcome to explore new military technologies (exo-armor? drones?)
• Gene engineering is increasingly complex. Biotech and pharma continue to develop at breakneck speeds. A particular breakthrough is in the delivery of foreign genes for medical purposes. People begin using genetic engineering to treat congenital genetic diseases and there may be early trials into its application for things like vision correction. What social consequences does this have?
• Right now there is a general move towards corporate conglomeration. Big companies tend to acquire when they have capital and increasingly, real economic power lies in fewer and fewer hands. Does this trend continue?
• What about religion? Does Islam continue to be the west’s boogie-man?
• What about space?
• What about materials technology?
• What about new cultural identities?
• Social media?
• What about new social development? Music? Art? Literature?

So what ideas do you have?

 

[CivOasis]

Expressing interest (primarily in world-building phase), depending upon level and nature of commitment.

I must admit I'm a bit confused at the current moment - are you looking for us to claim specific countries, or can we spitball as we please? How in-depth does each piece need to be? How intense is the level of detail and frequency involvement you're looking for?

 

[Nuka-sama]

I'd actually be particularly interested in a nuclear war between Iran and Saudi Arabia as a possibility

 

[Warriorx1]

IT sounds like someone is rebuilding an Escape velocity type world..... I'm interested

 

[Ailedhoo]

This sound intriguing. Consider my interests registered.

 

[Civ'ed]

Oooh, colour me actively intrigued.

Perhaps more Dutch land reclamation wouldn't be a bad thing

 

[Masada]

For population just use the UN's Long-Term World Population Projections which give you national level population projections for 2040. For GDP I'd use the OECDs long term economic forecasts. Sure it only captures members of the OECD but I don't see people playing the minnows anyway? You can then make manual adjustments to suit. It's far simpler than any other approach, like making them up yourself, and at least in the case of the UN pop projections is very likely to be vastly more accurate than anything you could come up with. I'm agnostic on the economic modelling given that there's a lot more factors to take into account.

 

[CivOasis]

For population just use the UN's Long-Term World Population Projections which give you national level population projections for 2040. For GDP I'd use the OECDs long term economic forecasts. Sure it only captures members of the OECD but I don't see people playing the minnows anyway? You can then make manual adjustments to suit. It's far simpler than any other approach, like making them up yourself, and at least in the case of the UN pop projections is very likely to be vastly more accurate than anything you could come up with. I'm agnostic on the economic modelling given that there's a lot more factors to take into account.

If it's *only* the OECD, you're going to find more than a few players trying to play other countries if they have the choice.

 

[JohannaK]

Very interested. Will contribute.

 

[Masada]

Sure there's some stuff that's not covered, but it's easier to at least use that as a base and then hunt for projections that cover missing stuff. Example: PWC does a report to 2050 which looks at the 30 something largest economies, including India and China. Between the two? You have most stuff covered. Mixing the two is a little problematic but significantly less problematic than the exercise of judgement or simple trend analysis.

 

[erez87]

Looks like a load of fun!

"realism and believability"

That is very open for interpretation.

I see you said no fusion power, what about outer space solar power (the idea to send solar panels into outer space and then send the power back in with lasers or something)? Improved rocket fuels, or some sort of improved form of movement out of the earth? What about the EM-drive (the so called "impossible engine")? Space exploration is a very big unknown.

What about quick changes in politics? As the older generations die (in the US for example) the right wing is going to suffer greatly as the younger generations are more liberal by far in most of the world.

Massive disease outbreak that devastates human population?

So how free should players feel?

 

[Ailedhoo]

I would suggest the possible mining of the Moon; consider a Moon rush by corporate bodies to acquire the potential metals which may or may not result in national tensions.

Any Moon settlement would have to involve the usage of lunar water.

Armstrong as a possible name for a US lunar colony, Gagaringrad for Russia, Changjia, Yangjia or Maojia for the PRC, Sharmasahara for India etch.

Edit: wait... I think I miss the decade.... Moon mining could be a policy in a few decades though now might be... management will need to be addressed.

 

[Immaculate]

Expressing interest (primarily in world-building phase), depending upon level and nature of commitment.

I must admit I'm a bit confused at the current moment - are you looking for us to claim specific countries, or can we spitball as we please? How in-depth does each piece need to be? How intense is the level of detail and frequency involvement you're looking for?

Spitball as you please.

As in-depth as you feel you are willing to contribute. If you are not having fun then don’t do it but if you enjoy the experience, please go for it.

I'd actually be particularly interested in a nuclear war between Iran and Saudi Arabia as a possibility

maybe outline how they got nukes as events first?

IT sounds like someone is rebuilding an Escape velocity type world..... I'm interested

Good. Please write events!

This sound intriguing. Consider my interests registered.

Good. Please write events!

Oooh, colour me actively intrigued.

Perhaps more Dutch land reclamation wouldn't be a bad thing

Good. Please write events!

For population just use the UN's Long-Term World Population Projections which give you national level population projections for 2040. For GDP I'd use the OECDs long term economic forecasts. Sure it only captures members of the OECD but I don't see people playing the minnows anyway? You can then make manual adjustments to suit. It's far simpler than any other approach, like making them up yourself, and at least in the case of the UN pop projections is very likely to be vastly more accurate than anything you could come up with. I'm agnostic on the economic modelling given that there's a lot more factors to take into account.

If it's *only* the OECD, you're going to find more than a few players trying to play other countries if they have the choice.

Sure there's some stuff that's not covered, but it's easier to at least use that as a base and then hunt for projections that cover missing stuff. Example: PWC does a report to 2050 which looks at the 30 something largest economies, including India and China. Between the two? You have most stuff covered. Mixing the two is a little problematic but significantly less problematic than the exercise of judgement or simple trend analysis.

Thanks. I’ll explore those.

Very interested. Will contribute.

Good. Please write events!

Looks like a load of fun!

"realism and believability"

That is very open for interpretation.

I see you said no fusion power, what about outer space solar power (the idea to send solar panels into outer space and then send the power back in with lasers or something)? Improved rocket fuels, or some sort of improved form of movement out of the earth? What about the EM-drive (the so called "impossible engine")? Space exploration is a very big unknown.

What about quick changes in politics? As the older generations die (in the US for example) the right wing is going to suffer greatly as the younger generations are more liberal by far in most of the world.

Massive disease outbreak that devastates human population?

Maybe write the events that lead to an economic incentive for space solar power or whatever first before you get to the actual implementation. Space solar power out of nowhere makes no sense. In a proper context, it may make sense (probably not by 2025 though).

Yes to better fuels if you write it properly.

No EM drive by 2025.

Absolutely, enthusiastically yes to changes in politics if it is well argued.

Massive disease outbreak- no. Though I do need people to include the effects of the agricultural disease I outlined in post 2.

So how free should players feel?

Hard question to answer... maybe outline things in broad strokes first then get feedback from other players and the mod before committing tons of energy and time to things you feel are 'out there'. If its realistic and follows naturally from current events (ie Hillary wins the US elections), then its probably okay to simply write it up.

I would suggest the possible mining of the Moon; consider a Moon rush by corporate bodies to acquire the potential metals which may or may not result in national tensions.

Any Moon settlement would have to involve the usage of lunar water.

Armstrong as a possible name for a US lunar colony, Gagaringrad for Russia, Changjia, Yangjia or Maojia for the PRC, Sharmasahara for India etch.

Edit: wait... I think I miss the decade.... Moon mining could be a policy in a few decades though now might be... management will need to be addressed.

Yeah, for now lets focus on the events that even provide a budget for space exploration. Right now its not a priority really for any nation- at least not on the scale necessary to get a lunar colony by 2045.

 

[Immaculate]

Okay, I’ll go first…

China Accelerates Investment in African Agriculture

Years

Ongoing

Brief

Chinese agribusiness expand aggressively into Africa in the wake of diminishing returns and hard biophysical limits in China itself. Private military contractors with purportedly local employers, but actually paid indirectly by Chinese agribusiness, are increasingly common in Africa.

Details

Despite the completion of the massive South-North Water Diversion Project mega-project, biophysical limits to agricultural land use, soil enrichment, and water availability continue to limit Chinese agricultural productivity (1, 2). This is compounded by Chinese investment in shoal energy, which diverts both land and water from agriculture to energy production in the already very dry northern region.

The response has been to accelerate an already ongoing trend, the direct investment of Chinese money, resources, and technical know-how in the agricultural productivity of Africa (3). China has been and continues to encourage public-private partnerships and provides incentives for Chinese agribusiness corporations to invest in African agriculture. By the year 2021, as biophysical limits in China itself solidify productivity and impose diminishing annual returns, and food prices continue to rise throughout the world, these investment begin taking on a form that is dominated by direct control through land purchase or long-term lease agreements, and less as bilateral aid agreements.

And where big Chinese agribusiness goes, so too does the Chinese private military contracts (4). Increasingly sophisticated and well organized, the relationship between these mercenary forces and those who pay them in often of labyrinthine complexity but often ultimately related back to Chinese agribusiness.

(Potential) Consequences

China avoids some of the economic damages of water and agriculture limits it would otherwise suffer. Chinese influence in Africa accelerates. The ‘string of pearls’ naval bases operated by China amongst its local partners in the Indian Ocean region are reinforced (perhaps further disrupting Chinese-Indian relations)

References

1: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2013/131217/ncomms3918/full/ncomms3918.html
2: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587789-desperate-measures
3: http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges-africa/news/china’s-role-in-african-agriculture
4: http://thediplomat.com/2012/02/enter-chinas-security-firms/1/

 

[Tyo]

expressing interest

 

[Immaculate]

expressing interest

Looking forward to your events!

 

[Sonereal]

Here is an extremely rough draft of what I've been working on this morning. It isn't finished, and I realize that a lot more will need to go into it before I can readily call it finish.

 

[Immaculate]

I really like it Sone.

 

[Decamper]

Ideas I have bouncing around but need to actually do some proper research on later:

1. Softish collapse of North Korea: A relatively non-violent coup results in deescalation between the DPRK and ROK. While full reunification is not yet realised (by 2025) due to the amount of effort the ROK would need to exert to develop the north properly, the DPRK is much more integrated into the regional economy, and has much stronger ties with the PRC, ROK and Russia. With the DPRK no longer a threat, the US loses influence in the region as the ROK does not renew its alliance with the US, instead forming closer ties with China and Russia, and keen to become its own independent power in the region. With US support, Japan fully re-militarizes, further antagonizing Korea and China.

Possible effects by 2025: Open DPRK rapidly developing with aid from China, Russia and ROK. ROK no longer under US sphere of influence. Japanese military formally reinstated. US possibly taking efforts to strengthen ties with SEA states/India to 'contain' China?

2. Tied to Sone's bit: With Syrian, Yemeni, Palestinian and Iraqi infrastructure still ravaged from conflict, and millions of refugees in none-to-pleasant conditions in neighbouring states, the agricultural disaster of the 2020's hits the region hard, reigniting many waning conflicts. Refugee populations, already grating under conditions that grew increasingly oppressive throughout the 2010's, become more and more unstable as food rations slow. Competition among regional powers (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran) and global powers (US, Russia) further fan the flames.

Possible effects by 2025: Instability, or outright conflict growing in mid-east states (Lebanon, Jordan, maybe Turkey?), reigniting or intensifying of conflicts already present in the 2010's (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Palestine (Kurdistan?)). Regional powers growing increasingly antagonistic to one another, as well as reliant on global powers (Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran forming closer ties with US or Russia - maybe Israel and Saudi Arabia becoming ever closer thanks to the US as their mutual ally, and Iran as mutual antagonist).

Other possible ideas are 1) a proper Mexican civil war. 2) collapse or contraction of the EU. 3) strengthening of AU as African economies grow, and domestic conflicts continue to grow to regional conflicts (influence of China?).

I'll make proper events once I do a bit more reading and other people weigh in.