Was it ever possible for the Axis Powers to win?

I dont see they need to invade all of india, just start fighting their way through Pakistan. With India all but unsupplied and fighting a war on two fronts even someone as dogmatic as Churchill would have asked for terms rather than loose the jewel i the crown - not to mention Oz who without the States would have been even more shaky.

Once thier strategic resorces and communications are secure thier real objective of the european and pacific regions of Russia would have been achievable.
 
Norseman2: I agree with you that going after the radar towers would have been a smarter strategy by the Luftwaffe, but I doubt it would have made any decisive difference. Britain is, after all, highly populated, so it's not as though no one would notice a large sortie of German planes overhead without radar.

Where I really disagree with you is on the capability of the Luftwaffe to bomb Britain.
Norseman2 said:
If the radar got destroyed, then the RAF would need to move forward, not backward. Anything else would let the Germans firebomb everything from Plymouth to Norwhich, and destroy all the coastal defenses in advance, not to mention all the ports, giving the German navy a decisive advantage, key to enabling Operation Sealion. Pulling the RAF back and saving it for an invasion is just crazy. If the Luftwaffe is winning, you can't invade. It's that simple. The Luftwaffe could bomb all the landing craft at port, before the fleet could even be launched, and then go on to firebomb all the coastal cities, incinerate miles of farms and forests, blow up bridges across Great Britain, and otherwise destroy the British economy, making it impossible to ever build up an invasion force, or revive the RAF. If the Luftwaffe had won, the Germans would have won.
You have to remember how limited the range of the German fighters is though. When they tried to bomb London, the fighters could only fight there for about 10 minutes before they had to turn back. Anything further than that (say, the Midlands, where all the British factories were, or Scapa Flow, where the Royal Navy was), the bombers would have had to have flown to completely unescorted. As it was, the only targets they could really bomb were fairly unimportant to the British war effort. In short, the only way the Luftwaffe could have really made a difference is if they COMPLETELY destroyed the RAF, which was impossible.


Norseman2 said:
Ah, now here's the problem. They set an invasion date, even though the Germans could have bombed Britain indefinitely, if the Luftwaffe had won. A slightly modified Ju-88, possibly using drop tanks, could have hit any target in the British isles. This means that yes, a very little improved Luftwaffe could have destroyed the RAF. Once the RAF is gone, the Luftwaffe would have free reign to destroy Royal Navy ships in port, as well as at sea. It could firebomb cities, and burn farms and forests across the British isles. When the majority of the economic damage is done, and food supply has become a problem, the Luftwaffe could turn to the stationary British defenses. Without food, no one will be able to rebuild them. That would make an invasion by 1942-1943 very easy.
The reason they set an invasion date was because it was their best chance to invade. Britain was simply outproducing Germany, so the longer Germany delayed, the more air power Britain had.


Norseman2 said:
Where does it say the author has spent his life studying warfare or put any significant amount of thought into Operation Sealion?
I was referring to the people at Sandhurst, not the author of that essay.
 
BH Liddell Hart says of the German pause before Dunkirk:

“If he (Hitler) had prevented the British forces escaping through this one remaining bolt-hole, Britain herself would have been so defenseless that he might have conquered her even by hastily improvised invasion.”

So it seams that Hitler could have won if you assume he was willing to stop at something short of world conquest and ask for some sort of negotiated peace.
 
1889 said:
BH Liddell Hart says of the German pause before Dunkirk:

“If he (Hitler) had prevented the British forces escaping through this one remaining bolt-hole, Britain herself would have been so defenseless that he might have conquered her even by hastily improvised invasion.”

So it seams that Hitler could have won if you assume he was willing to stop at something short of world conquest and ask for some sort of negotiated peace.

I can't agree. The main thing which stoped the Germans from invading England is not the soldiers, saved at Dunkirk.
 
Norseman2 said:
On the other hand, if you split that up into two airfields, you can arrive in 10 minutes either way, but you only arrive with half of your aircraft.

The British did have a lot of aircraft. The RAF was almost as large as the Luftwaffe in 1940 and had the major advantages of fighting over it's home territory and drawing on internal lines of communication and a very robust aircraft industry.

Note that the allied invasion targeted beaches. There is no reason the Germans couldn't have done likewise.

Er, yes there is - it took the Allies years of preparations until they had the specialised shipping and doctrine needed to sustain a major offensive across open beaches. As late as the 1942 landings in North Africa they were reliant on the early capture of ports to supply the ground troops (hence the decision to send destroyers loaded with troops straight into heavily defended north African ports in an attempt to sieze them). This reliance only ended when the massive US shipyards delivered LSTs in huge numbers from 1943 onwards, and even then it wasn't until mid-1944 that enough of these ships were available and they had to be supplemented with the construction of sophisticated artifical harbours which took months to prepare. As the Germans didn't have LSTs, the capacity to build LSTs, the facilities to support LSTs or the doctrine to effectively employ these ships even if they did have them they had no chance of mounting an invasion without quickly capturing a major port.

Amphibious warfare is incredibly difficult and the Germans didn't understand just how hard invading Britain would be. Before WW2 the US Marines and British military were the leaders in developing amphibious doctrine and the equipment needed to mount amphibious operations. Despite this, the British totally messed up their first amphibious operations of the war (eg, Norway and Dieppe) and the USMC came close to disaster during the Makin Island raid and the first stages of the invasion of Guadacanal. As the German military had no amphibious warfare doctrine worth mentioning (they thought that crossing the Channel would be a large-scale river crosssing!) they simply didn't have a chance of sucessfully invading Britain. There's a lot more to amphibious warfare than loading troops into river barges and pointing them towards the British coast. The first wave might have gotten there, but they would have probably staved to death.

There are two quick solutions here. The first is modified fighters as well.

Seeing as Germany never developed high performance fighter aircraft with sufficent range to do this (though some of the later models of the FW-190 would have come close), I don't see how this is possible. German aircraft development was such a mess that they had no hope of building an aircraft as capable as, say, the P-51D Mustang, which is what they would have needed.

Personally, I think that's a wasteful solution. Much more elegant and inexpensive would be to have submarines, or submarine deployed commandoes, set bonfires near the ports.

The British would have had great fun slaughtering those submarines as they hung around in coastal waters and rounding up the commandos as they came ashore. Anyway, as the Germans didn't have many submarines or commandos in 1940 and had no experiance at all in the very complex task of mounting commando operations from naval vessels this simply isn't possible. Seeing as the German sabatours landed in the US didn't achieve anything, I don't see how sabatours landing in a better prepared country could have stood a chance.

I don't think it would be much of a technological challenge to make a floating torpedo that spills oil when it reaches land, and then sets off an incendiary. Nor do I think it would be much of a military challenge to get a submarine in position to do that.

True. And all you need to do to counter such ineffective weapons is to build breakwaters that restrict access to ports and then rig nets across the harbour entrances. The British did this and the only time the Germans used torpedos to attack shore targets was during a one submarine raid on ships tied up in a relatively minor Canadian port (the Royal Oak was also sunk by a German submarine which penetrated the RN's defences at Scarpa Flow in 1939 but these were rapidly upgraded). As torpedos aren't capable of rising from the sea they can't damage surface targets other than piers (eg, by destroying the peir's supports). As a result even if they can be delivered into coastal harbours they're useless in the land bombardment role.

Ah, it's quite easy. Instead of targeting cities specifically, they could spread out. Have each bomber go to a different location, either an open field, city, or forest during the dry months, and drop an incendiary bomb.

What dry months? Are you talking about Britain here? ;) I really don't see how scattering incendiaries across Britain's soggy fields and forests is a war-winning idea! Anyway, I'm sure that the RAF would appreciate the opportunity to pick off German aircraft flying by themselves. The same bomb tonnages would achieve a lot more if they were dropped on, say, the main dockyards and weapons factories. As the Germans couldn't reliably deliver bombs to these targets it's a bit of a pointless topic to speculate on.

GinandTonic said:
Hitler didnt need to invade britan, only to force the commonwealth to the table.

India was the key to forcing the commonwealth to the table.

Suez was the key to India.

Malta was the key to Suez.

None of the stratagies to taking britan is worth the effort. Their only benefit is closing the western front - but by closing that front via threatening india has the benefits of mideast oil (for all that it was underdeveloped) and african rubber. With those two resorces available it would not have been necessary to involve russia or the usa.

The Suez Canal was for all intents and purposes closed to Britain from the moment Italy entered the war in June 1940 until the conquest of Scily in mid-1943. As the presence of powerful Axis forces in the Med closed the sea to British civilian shipping the Canal could not be used to ship anything to India during this period. Despite this the British sucessfully sustained their Armies in Egypt and India by sending shipping there via the Cape of Good Hope and drawing on supplies produced in India, East Asia and Australasia. The Commonwealth Army in Egypt seems to have been better supplied than the Axis armies which enjoyed much shorter lines of communication back to Italy.
 
If Japan had found some way of getting oil and had not attacked America, I'd say they would have won. Of course, also it was stupid to attack Russia.
 
I think Germany could have won but not Nazi Germany. They were welcomed as liberators initially in the Ukraine but managed to turn the civilian population against them.
 
Norseman2 said:
Note that the allied invasion targeted beaches. There is no reason the Germans couldn't have done likewise.

No reason? :eek:

At Normandy, Allies had 5000 ships and complete mastery of the sea, air superiority, two years to prepare, and the good luck of a slow Nazi response early in the invasion on top of all that. The Nazis in the Battle of Britain didn't have air superiority, the navy, or the time to prepare that the British had.

Remember that the Allied breakout didn't happen until they secured a port, either. If they couldn't secure the port, they would have been in bad shape, strategically. A beach invasion can be countered if you can hold them near the beach and deny them access to a nearby port for resupply.

Attacking across the channel when the other side basically controls the sea and is still actively contesting the airspace over the likely invasion site is a bad move. The situations were not even remotely similar.

The Germans, if they failed to take a port early in an amphibious landing, would have had no way to pull off a reverse Dunkirk. The invasion force would have been lost.
 
Zardnaar said:
I think Germany could have won but not Nazi Germany. They were welcomed as liberators initially in the Ukraine but managed to turn the civilian population against them.

You mean the 350,000 auxiliary army the OKH wanted to be drawn from local populations in which Hitler stopped due to racial grounds.
 
I don't know about Germany, but Japan screwed themselves not by attacking America, but by getting themselves involved in China.
 
Eh japan was screwed all along. They had a decent navy, but their army was completely worthless.
 
FriendlyFire said:
You mean the 350,000 auxiliary army the OKH wanted to be drawn from local populations in which Hitler stopped due to racial grounds.

Something like that. Also the amount of men diverted from the front to garrison areas that if left more or less to themselves. The occupied soviets states and even Russia could (well it did) have provided alot of manpower for the German war machine. A more humane German army could have utilised the resources of occupied U.S.S.R alot more effectivly or even turned the citizens against their own government. N.K.V.D wasn't overly popular for some reason. Soviet defeat= Germans winning WW2
 
pi-r8 said:
Eh japan was screwed all along. They had a decent navy, but their army was completely worthless.

Lol. The army wasn't at all worthless. It's just that failure for Japan was, again, a result of inferior economics, resources, industrial production and population. As with Nazi Germany, success had to be achieved quickly and ruthlessly while the enemies were weak and divided. Had Japan been able to capitalise on Pearl Harbor with an invasion of the West Coast, backed up with enough reserves of resources and military equipment, then it might have stood at least half a chance. By being incapable of pressing their advantage, they simply allowed time for the full resources of the USA and British Empire to be thrown against them.
 
Dawgphood001 said:
I don't know about Germany, but Japan screwed themselves not by attacking America, but by getting themselves involved in China.

So they would basically have done nothing? That's like saying Germany was screwed for attacking Poland. Yeah, if the war never began, they never would have lost.

Japan desperately needed resources while being able to consolidate their gains and avoid war with the United States. That was nearly impossible, to be honest. If they had not attempted any further gains on mainland China while focusing on the Dutch East Indies and French Indochina, they might have had enough raw material to hold onto what they had. They would have faced a trade embargo from the US, so they have to be able to use what they conquer and be ready to give up fighting at any moment and consolidate what they have. Its a very fine line and, as they went on, they would run lower and lower on the essentials to winning a war (oil, steel, etc). If the US ever did choose to fight them, they would be in a worse position than they were on December 7, 1941.
 
Stolen Rutters said:
the good luck of a slow Nazi response early in the invasion on top of all that.
A lot of it wasn't luck at all.
It was the French Resistance, putting in an effort valued by Eisenhower to the equivalent of 15 divisions worth of blowing things up, and he wasn't exactly given to exaggerations.:goodjob:
 
pi-r8 said:
They had a decent navy, but their army was completely worthless.

That's a bit of an overstatement, but is basically correct. While the Japanese Army performed very well against the 3rd rate Colonial armies it encountered during the conquest of South East Asia in 1941 and early 1942, it was slaughtered from mid 1942 to the end of the war. Average quality Allied units routinely achieved 10:1 casualty ratios against Japanese troops fighting from pre-prepared defensive positions.
 
Case said:
That's a bit of an overstatement, but is basically correct. While the Japanese Army performed very well against the 3rd rate Colonial armies it encountered during the conquest of South East Asia in 1941 and early 1942, it was slaughtered from mid 1942 to the end of the war. Average quality Allied units routinely achieved 10:1 casualty ratios against Japanese troops fighting from pre-prepared defensive positions.
That would seem to be an effect of Japan being relatively speaking poor, in relation to the weight-class it was trying to punch in. (A bit like Italy.)

IIRC Japanese troops were quite often not given more than ONE shooting exercise per YEAR, and only six live rounds, all to economise on the cost of ammunition. Which predictably led bloody awful shooting among the Japanse infantry.

Otoh they could be given heavy daily doses of very cheap HTH fighting training, becoming very good at that instead.

IIRC there was a standing US order in the Pacific theatre not to engage in HTH with Japanse units unless it was entirely unavoidable. The US army held all the advantages in a fire fight, not least fire supriority. Getting into a scrap with the Japanses nit just nullified these advantages, but was also very, very dangerous as it was a kind of fighting the Japanese were good at, better than the Americans.
 
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