I picked Ottomans b/c it's the only Civ listed that I've played on a water map so far (Large, Archipelago, Emperor) and it went very well. Currently I'm playing as Maya on a water map (it's a Large random map type so not exactly sure which) and I was doing so-so until I got battleships and decimated Persia's navy which was at one point 8% ahead of me in Lit and a 3-1 advantage in military size (as seen on the Demographics screen).
I feel that the AI is just awful at naval warfare, much worse than it is at land combat imo, so water maps seem easier to me.