What are the key factors behind the rise and fall of civilizations?

The Western Roman Empire's tax base fell because of civil war and a few generations of constant conflict between Romans. It didn't fall because rich people refused to pay their taxes.
Except that the wealthy Senatorial class was exempt from taxation so it fell to the middle class and the poor to pay it.
Exempted senatorial class from taxation. The descendants of anyone who had served in the Roman Senate (a body that was restricted to the noble and wealthy) continued to hold hereditary senatorial status. Immune from taxation and many other expenses, the senatorial class held vast estates and were the richest class in Roman society. This meant that the full weight of the property tax fell on the small farmers and middle-class businessmen and artisans. The farmers who could not pay their taxes could be enslaved (along with their wives and children) and so gave their lands and their persons to local members of the senatorial class. In this way, they avoided taxes but lost their freedom, becoming tenant-farmers (coloni)
http://www.vlib.us/medieval/lectures/late_roman_empire.html

Slavery was all but gone in the late Empire.

It was a period of transition from Ancient Slavery to Medieval Serfdom. I'm not sure the people working the plantations notice much of a difference though.

Peace was signed in 384, it lasted until 421; it was renewed again in 422 and lasted until 441; where it was on again renewed in 442 and lasted through to 502. That covers the relevant period. So, no. The Sassanid's had nothing to do with the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

The threat was still there so some troops had to be assign to defend the eastern front.

That was after the events I described and it arose as a direct result of a Civil War in the East. Put simply, Alaric had ensconced himself in the Balkans under the tutelage of the Eastern regent Eutropius, who got himself killed. Left without a friend at court and about to lose his position - he was the magister militum of Illyricum, a senior Roman officer - he decided to try his luck in the West. The first attempt failed, Stilicho dealt it to him. The second attempts success was the result of Constantine III's usurpation and the death of Stilicho. Also, Stilicho was fighting the East during all this, that might help to explain why Alaric was an Eastern appointed magister militum of a Western province.

So it backs up what I said earlier. Alaric took advantage of the weak state of Rome's defenses because of the civil war.

After the events and a direct result of the denudation of the Gallic frontier of troops to fight the Civil Wars in the 370s and 380s. The Vandals walked in to Gaul, swept aside the weak Roman forces in Hispania, cannibalised for Civil Wars (!) and crossed into the diocese of Africa almost unopposed. Kind of sucks but that's what happens when the frontiers are left untended for two decades (388 - 408).

So the western fronts were in a weak defensive state because of the civil war too.

There's nothing unusual about that.

Which proves the point about not being able to keep good leaders around long enough to fight off all the threats from the invaders.
 
I don´t see how this model would explain the wax and wane of the Mongols, though. (It would be interesting if this model could be applied to China, which has an actual repeating cycle of rise and decline.)

Technically, the Mongol civilization never collapsed. It's still around today, just much smaller in size. But the most expedient way to explain this is that the Mongols expanded until they reached a point where the increasing gains of conquest gave diminishing returns due to the vast size required to maintain it. Other civilizations counter such diminishing returns by centralizing their power, and the wiser ones try to solve the inherent inefficiencies. China seems to be the later. The Mongols appear to have done the opposite of centralizing by dividing the empire up into mini-empires, such as the Ilkhanate, the Chagatai Khanate, etc. The Chinese dynasties kept having new problems as they resurged, but each new dynasty seemed to solve a problem that the old hadn't.


Except that the wealthy Senatorial class was exempt from taxation so it fell to the middle class and the poor to pay it.

True, and one of the things I found shocking when I read about it. Until the later empire, Senators were exempt from all taxes except inheritance tax. The "job" of the provinces was to provide Roman citizens with opulent wealth and a fabulous lifestyle, with the bulk going to the Senatorial order and the scraps left for the middle and lower classes.
 
That shouldn´t be shocking though: most pre-modern societies´ tax base was agrarian, i.e. the farmers paid the bulk of taxes. (The idea of a more progressive tax system is really modern - and even today the wealthiest people look for ways of evading perceived massive taxes.)

As for Mongols vs China: both civilizations never disappeared, but the Mongols only rose and fell once.
 
Murky said:
Except that the wealthy Senatorial class was exempt from taxation so it fell to the middle class and the poor to pay it.

The old Senatorial class didn't survive into the Late Empire. What survived was a rank, Senator, that was bestowed for services rendered. It was a mark of social distinction like a medal and no longer the mark of a different class. We know because people like Sidonius Apollinaris tells us this; he despite being a big Gallic landowner was made a Senator only in 469.

Murky said:
It was a period of transition from Ancient Slavery to Medieval Serfdom. I'm not sure the people working the plantations notice much of a difference though.

Right, that's a glib assertion to make. You better provide some evidence for these slave revolts, then I guess.

Murky said:
The threat was still there so some troops had to be assign to defend the eastern front.

How is that relevant to the state of the West? Consider that the West was at war with the East when Alaric was running around.

Murky said:
So it backs up what I said earlier. Alaric took advantage of the weak state of Rome's defenses because of the civil war.

You threw out half a dozen factors in a list. Just one has been shown to be relevant. That's not a good hit rate. And it's outright insulting to claim a victory here when you challenged my original assertion:

Me said:
Nah, the barbarians were a symptom of fratricidal civil war, the ultimate cause of the collapse of the Western Empire, and not the cause.

Murky said:
So the western fronts were in a weak defensive state because of the civil war too.

Three which had nothing to do with barbarians, disease, famine, greed, external pressure or the lack of good leadership.

Murky said:
Which proves the point about not being able to keep good leaders around long enough to fight off all the threats from the invaders.

We might as well blame disease for that.
 
Book "On the plurality of civilizations" by Koneczny (in English):

http://sci.pam.szczecin.pl/~fasting/files/download/Koneczny/strona.htm

Wiki article about the author:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feliks_Koneczny
So... unmaterialistic... :twitch:

It was a period of transition from Ancient Slavery to Medieval Serfdom. I'm not sure the people working the plantations notice much of a difference though.
I don't think that you can really draw a straight line between "ancient slavery" and "medieval serfdom" like that. Serfdom was a legal form, not a social form, which is to say, it was a particular set of legal fetters placed upon peasant populations, it did not define the social character of the peasants themselves. (Some peasant populations were never enserfed, such as those of Norway.) So what you're looking for is the development of the peasantry, rather than the development of serfdom (which is not to say that the two can be historically separated, but that one is more fundamental than the other), and there are very few contemporary historians who would accept that the peasants represented any sort of collective successor to the slaves.
 
That shouldn´t be shocking though: most pre-modern societies´ tax base was agrarian, i.e. the farmers paid the bulk of taxes. (The idea of a more progressive tax system is really modern - and even today the wealthiest people look for ways of evading perceived massive taxes.)

That was the Senators' source of income as well. They owned vast plantations.

If you traveled the empire during its later days, you would've been struck by the desolation of so much arable land. Many farmers had become so burdened by taxes that they simply abandoned them.
 
Christ, you people are a bunch of faff asses. I leave for a month and a half and this forum goes to hell. ;)

...well, except Masada, I guess.
That was the Senators' source of income as well. They owned vast plantations.

If you traveled the empire during its later days, you would've been struck by the desolation of so much arable land. Many farmers had become so burdened by taxes that they simply abandoned them.
The hell are you talking about? The agri deserti?

The agri deserti wasn't arable land that used to be worked, but no longer was; it was just land that wasn't being worked. Inference that agricultural production was dropping is baseless, especially given the lack of a comparison of the territories that were agri deserti with previously-worked land.
 
The agri deserti wasn't arable land that used to be worked, but no longer was; it was just land that wasn't being worked. Inference that agricultural production was dropping is baseless, especially given the lack of a comparison of the territories that were agri deserti with previously-worked land.

Indeed. Also, although disease was endemic to the pre-modern world at large, famine was rare in the Roman world, and there are insufficient data to support that economic decline had anything to do with the fall of the West.

As far as the claim that inter-empire civil war (if that´s meant with fratricidal civil war, a term I´ve not before encountered with recourse to the Roman empire), was the cause of its fall, that remains highly dubious; as mentioned civil war (even on a grand scale) was nothing new. What was new however, was the appearance of larger conglomerates of German tribes at its borders. The 4th century sees a whole range of new peoples´ names appearing, a good deal of which had been before referred to as mere tribes. So while the East had been presented with one new superpower (the adjustment to which placed a huge strain on the imperial structure), all along the Rhine-Danube front, numerous larger local powers emerged, whose military were all a par with the Romans. The most well-known example of what might happen next is ofcourse Attila´s Hun-confederacy (for the most part made up of Germanic ´peoples´ - which is clear from the fact alone that after Attila´s demise, it wasn´t the Huns that were causing further trouble, but these no longer subjugated Germanic ´peoples´), which had no trouble besieging walled Roman cities. So what happened in fact was that Rome´s age-old divide-and-rule principle no longer worked on a large part of its borders. Again, the resulting invasions were nothing new, but they now were no longer being countered; instead whole tribes were allowed within the Roman empire, without them being incorporated, as had been the custom before. Instead of being incorporated within the military, they were now allowed to occupy their own land within the empire and under their own leaders. They no longer effectively became romanized then, and after a while, as it turned out, they were in fact germanicizing the areas they occupied - to a degree, that is, as these ´peoples´ were never that numerous as to reverse what the Romans had done for centuries. But they did cut in on the Roman taxbase, as huge tracts of, indeed, arable land, no longer payed its surplus to the imperial treasury. So, in a way, the Romans were paying for their own demise. Now it might be argued that all of these ´peoples movements´ were simply too much for the Roman military, and there one might have a point; it was simply a novel situation. Before Roman superior tactics and patron-client relations defined (and secured) its borders, but these ´new´ barbarians used Roman tactics (and, to a large extent, weapons). It might be said that Roman acculturation - which always exceeded beyond its de facto borders - now turned on itself. Had these primarily German tribes before only had leaders in times of war, there now seemed to have developed a permanent warrior class, whose leaders no longer fought primarily against fellow Germanic tribes, but instead posed a real danger to the integrity of Rome´s frontiers. And the Western empire failed to produce the same reply as the East had been able to in response to the Sassanids - who, by the way, always remained a threat, right until the Arab explosion on the scene. (Intervention in the West, for instance, was only possible when at peace with Persia.)

As to ´fratricidal civil war´ leading to these events, I don´t see any proof for this, nor has it been effectively presented. Yes, the East intervened in the West, but this was a matter of dynastic policy usually, and yes, there was intrigue in Rome, in Constantinople, and in the military, but this also might be termed as endemic to the Roman polity since the early days of the res publica.
 
Hell with it. I don't have the energy to construct a coherent argument to refute a semicoherent argument at this time of the morning with this much alcohol in me.
(collection of half-truths, Accepted Wisdom, and outright falsehoods)
Yeesh.

The notion that the western empire faced a serious, crippling military threat from outside its territory really ought to die. The WRE's army won almost every single recorded field engagement it fought against external enemies per Elton (1998), a proportion that increases if groups like Alareiks' "Goths" are included as "Romans" (which they were).

Even the most migrationist, barbarian-invasion-pushing historian would agree that the WRE underwent a series of very serious systemic civil wars between Gallic and imperial interests from the 380s to about 420. I mean, this is basically indisputable. There's some difference on what the cause was (some prefer to locate it at Gratianus' movement of the capital back to Italy, the explanation I prefer), but no differentiation on what actually happened. Peter Heather will say that the WRE was embroiled in an unusually bad series of civil wars that pretty much shafted the army just in time for lolbarbs. Guy Halsall will say that the WRE was embroiled in an unusually bad series of civil wars that pretty much shafted the army just in time for local interests to begin providing for their own security needs independent of central control. Neither of them would disagree on the extent of the civil conflict or its importance in setting the stage for what happened next; both of them would agree that external forces played some role in the subsequent events. Heather gives them agency and primacy in the follow-on events; Halsall gives them agency but a massively reduced role, and argues that most of the forces that Heather classes as 'external' are in fact 'internal'.

I mean, the central events to a migrationist, the crossing of the Rhine in 405/6, depended almost entirely and directly on Roman internecine conflict. Sources like Olympiodoros explicitly note that there were basically no imperial forces around to stop them because they were all either in the army of the usurper Constantinus "III" (representing Gallic interests) or in the imperial army, much of which had been moved to the south to fight the ERE over Illyricum and Greece and much of the rest of which was, surprise surprise, fighting Constantinus "III". The Asdings, Silings, Alans, and Suebi crossed the river basically unmolested save for, apparently, Frankish resistance on the eastern side. And Constantinus, who controlled most of Gaul at that point, more or less ignored the invaders and continued to focus on fighting the imperial government around Arelatum. Even during the imperial counteroffensive under Constantius III in the 410s, Constantinus was the primary target; the imperials only rounded on the invaders after he and his successors were dead.

That's probably the biggest of the holes in your post (which would've invited a comparison to Swiss cheese if only it had something between the holes to make up the cheese part), and I'm too drunk, lazy, and tired to not let Masada get the rest.
 
I will throw in my two cents that from what I've seen and heard from following these threads, that there's no more evidence of a crippling military threat in Germany then there was in Britain.
While I'm making the comparison because it's the only one I've got, but I don't think it's an entirely useless one.
In the case of Britain we see a culture that has made no significant relevant political, technological or military improvements in the century prior to invasion. Like most of Rome, we see a series of civil wars, followed by a collapse of Imperial support. So at the very least, we know it didn't take anything more then Civil War and distracted troops for small, disorganized, ill equipped military forces to run roughshod over Imperial Territory. We've got enough Oghams all over the place to demonstrate this.
In the absence of any real evidence of the development of new power structures east of the Danube where previously there had been just "tribes" I see no reason that we shouldn't just assume no such transformation did occur.
 
The sole piece of hard evidence for the supposed transformation of the frontier polities - well, polity is too strong a word, but 'people' sounds a bit too nationalist - is the Alamannic kingship in the late 350s, described by Ammianus as part of his narrative of the Battle of Argentoratum. Ammianus basically said that there were different tiers of Alamannic kings. That's it. From such humble beginnings, certain historians, most of whom are/were German, have extrapolated elaborate constitutional systems for this Alamannic 'state', with kings and sub-kings and sub-sub-kings and whatnot. The more sensible explanation of the relevant passage is that some tribes of the Alamanni were more powerful than others at this stage of the game and were at least temporarily able to lord it over them. No constitution necessary: a totally normal relationship, no different than Arminius' temporary ability to force the Heruskoz into action against Rome in 9.

And anyway, even if you accept the Alamannic 'constitutional' explanations in toto, you are left with the rather anticlimactic result that the Alamanni lost the Battle of Argentoratum, and that by the subsequent decade they were extremely badly beaten in war (first against Iulianus and then against Valentinianus I) such that any semblance of formal hierarchical political structures can be safely said to have ceased. They subsequently played a very small role in the fifth century events, overshadowed even by the lowly Burgundiones.

All other 'evidence' cited in favor of political and economic development external to Rome is either fabricated - e.g. in Heather's case, he assumes this development occurred simply because it had to have done, according to him, presumably by the Inevitable March of Civilization Without Regard to Malthus - or archaeologically spotty, as in the case of turning weapons finds in Danish bogs into elaborate formulas for the military power of the extra-Roman world.
 
most of whom are/were German, have extrapolated elaborate constitutional systems for this Alamannic 'state',
That's not entirely fair. Some of them were English Whigs nattering on about traditional Saxon liberties.
 
That's not entirely fair. Some of them were English Whigs nattering on about traditional Saxon liberties.
Nah, I'm talking about "in the last thirty years". Herwig Wolfram and his ilk.
 
Here´s a list of Germanic tribes from the early empire:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Germanic_peoples

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/76/Augusto_30aC_-_6dC_55%CS_jpg.JPG

Most of these tribes simply ´disappear´ between then and, say, 350 AD.

And then this happens:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Invasions_of_the_Roman_Empire_1.png

Of these only the Goths are already mentioned in early Roman sources. So these other tribes simply spontaneously emerged out of nowhere? Or perhaps they were formed from previously unknown federations?

As per German ´constitution´ - I don´t recall me mentioning any such anachronism; I specifically referred to Germanic tribes adopting Roman military methods and weapons, nothing else. All of which are attested.

The WRE's army won almost every single recorded field engagement it fought against external enemies per Elton (1998), a proportion that increases if groups like Alareiks' "Goths" are included as "Romans" (which they were).

Interesting. Yet these ´defeated´ barbarians established their own kingdoms on former Roman territory. Odd result there. And the (Visi-)Goths weren´t Romans - although very briefly they were recognized as foederati. (And there were ofcourse Goth slaves - being slave to a Roman doesn´t make you a Roman though.)

Even the most migrationist, barbarian-invasion-pushing historian would agree that the WRE underwent a series of very serious systemic civil wars between Gallic and imperial interests from the 380s to about 420. I mean, this is basically indisputable. There's some difference on what the cause was (some prefer to locate it at Gratianus' movement of the capital back to Italy, the explanation I prefer), but no differentiation on what actually happened. Peter Heather will say that the WRE was embroiled in an unusually bad series of civil wars that pretty much shafted the army just in time for lolbarbs. Guy Halsall will say that the WRE was embroiled in an unusually bad series of civil wars that pretty much shafted the army just in time for local interests to begin providing for their own security needs independent of central control. Neither of them would disagree on the extent of the civil conflict or its importance in setting the stage for what happened next; both of them would agree that external forces played some role in the subsequent events. Heather gives them agency and primacy in the follow-on events; Halsall gives them agency but a massively reduced role, and argues that most of the forces that Heather classes as 'external' are in fact 'internal'.

I mean, the central events to a migrationist, the crossing of the Rhine in 405/6, depended almost entirely and directly on Roman internecine conflict. Sources like Olympiodoros explicitly note that there were basically no imperial forces around to stop them because they were all either in the army of the usurper Constantinus "III" (representing Gallic interests) or in the imperial army, much of which had been moved to the south to fight the ERE over Illyricum and Greece and much of the rest of which was, surprise surprise, fighting Constantinus "III". The Asdings, Silings, Alans, and Suebi crossed the river basically unmolested save for, apparently, Frankish resistance on the eastern side. And Constantinus, who controlled most of Gaul at that point, more or less ignored the invaders and continued to focus on fighting the imperial government around Arelatum. Even during the imperial counteroffensive under Constantius III in the 410s, Constantinus was the primary target; the imperials only rounded on the invaders after he and his successors were dead.

Which clearly suggests that the imperial military was still able to do so after these supposedly lethal internal struggles - effectively undermining the point you try to make...

As per

Originally Posted by JEELEN
(collection of half-truths, ... and outright falsehoods)


Then you should have no trouble pointing out one.
 

You have good points so I won't argue against every counter you made. I have an interest in history but I don't claim to be an expert.

Disease was indeed a problem. There were plagues and epidemics. There was trade with Asia that brought in the disease and the living conditions were also prone to spreading disease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire#Disease

I supposed it wasn't so much famine as simply not working the workable lands because of lack of available slaves or peasantry. Perhaps is it wrong to infer that slave revolts contributed to the decline. That's not to say there were none, though. I'm sure there were groups of people who fled the plantations to make a new start someplace else and fought to keep their freedom when they had to.
 
You already finished reading his book? So quickly after I posted the link to it?

Sorry, I don't consider a civilization-level analysis relevant to rigorous history. Conceiving of Europe as "a battlefield between three types of civilization: Latin, Turan and Jewish," does not inspire confidence in me that his work gets beyond the nationalism and racism of his time.
 
Murky said:
Disease was indeed a problem. There were plagues and epidemics. There was trade with Asia that brought in the disease and the living conditions were also prone to spreading disease.

He died of pleurisy.
 
Of these only the Goths are already mentioned in early Roman sources. So these other tribes simply spontaneously emerged out of nowhere? Or perhaps they were formed from previously unknown federations?
That's a rather ridiculous way to look at things. These are tribal structures. They have little to no permanence. Elements of the group leave and join almost constantly; new groups form and old groups cease to be. Political continuity in the extra-Roman world did not, to all intents and purposes, exist, unless you're really charitable about the Boii (and even then, they didn't have continuity for very long).

Long-extant groups like the Yancai or Sweboz, if they actually were politically continuous (see below), were so not because of some sort of institutionalized political structures but because of contingent events.

Further complicating things is the Roman tendency to anachronistically classicize references to everything. Historians referring to Attila's armies, for instance, mentioned legit groups that had decent chances of taking part in the fighting (e.g. Goths, Sciri, Burgundiones) and also groups that had ceased to exist centuries before (Bastarna, Bructeri, Bellonoti).

It suffices to say that taking Greco-Roman ethnography at face value is foolish.
JEELEN said:
As per German ´constitution´ - I don´t recall me mentioning any such anachronism; I specifically referred to Germanic tribes adopting Roman military methods and weapons, nothing else. All of which are attested.
I apologize. It was a mistake to attribute to you an internally consistent position held by reputable historians (admittedly ones with whom I disagree).
JEELEN said:
Interesting. Yet these ´defeated´ barbarians established their own kingdoms on former Roman territory. Odd result there. And the (Visi-)Goths weren´t Romans - although very briefly they were recognized as foederati. (And there were ofcourse Goth slaves - being slave to a Roman doesn´t make you a Roman though.)
You cannot speak of 'kingdoms' established on Roman soil until the 460s, by which point the empire's Italian field army had virtually ceased to exist and the other field armies in Gaul, Spain, etc. had decided to strike out for themselves. For instance, the Frankish state of the Merovingians descended from the Roman field army on the Loire River, whose soldiers were mostly Roman but which seem to have included some people of Frankish descent. The 'Frankish' ethnicity that the soldiers adopted was a constructed identity and had no relationship to ancestry or where the soldiers had actually lived before they joined up with Rome. Even a cursory look at the Salian Frankish law code will show that the definition of a Frank had nothing to do with language and everything to do with his legal ability to wield arms.

The Goths of Alareiks were self-evidently Roman. He seems to have clearly been a regular Roman officer, just like Sarus, Gainas, and Tribigild; unlike those three (but rather like Constantinus "III" or Marcellinus), he used his troops against imperial forces in order to improve his position within the Roman military hierarchy. At no point attested in the sources during his period of semi-independent dueling with the Ravennate authorities was he ever explicitly described as being solely in command of allied federate formations, nor were the federate soldiers operating under him ever described as completely ethnically Gothic. Suggestions that he was in charge of a 'people on the move', such as those of Peter Heather, can be dismissed out of hand; they rely on descriptions of Alareiks' troops being accompanied by wagons, women, and children, but that was true of every Roman army in the period, regardless of its ethnic status. (Indeed, concerns over not being able to move with their spouses and families had sparked the revolt of 361 that put Iulianus Apostata on the throne.)

Perhaps the most decisive element in refuting the notion that Alareiks' Goths were a 'people on the move' constituted of the defeated Tervingi and Greuthungi settled in the Balkans after Theodosius' victories is that in order for them to have been these Goths, they would have exceeded the attested numbers of settled Goths in the area. So during the intervening ten to fifteen years, these Goths would have had to undergo a completely unattested and illegal population explosion by further migratory activity (unless you can figure out a way to breed thousands of soldiers in fifteen years). Furthermore, Alareiks' Goths were not the only group of Goths in the Empire. We must deal with the Gothic elements that Sarus had under his command, and those of Tribigild, and the Goths that Gainas brought to Constantinople...there are simply too many 'Goths' to be made up by the defeated and resettled Tervingi and Greuthungi. Clearly, then, many, if not most, of these Goths were in fact not Goths by descent at all, but men who adopted a 'Gothic' identity, perhaps as part of a sort of unit esprit de corps (the discussion of the late Roman army and self-identification is a whole other beast).
JEELEN said:
Which clearly suggests that the imperial military was still able to do so after these supposedly lethal internal struggles - effectively undermining the point you try to make...
Your lack of familiarity with the period you're attempting to argue about does not undermine my point.

As noted, in the late 410s Constantius III (who hadn't become co-emperor yet, but who was on his way) beat the living **** out of everybody in Gaul, forced the army units that had been following Alareiks before his death back into line, and was beginning to attack the Sweboz Suebi, Hasdings, Silings, and Alans in Iberia. The initial campaigns were apparently so devastating that the latter three groups were gutted, and forced to join together in order to retain any sort of military power. It was at that point that, as Masada, noted, Constantius III died of pleurisy while on the cusp of victory, setting off another fifteen years of civil war (involving figures such as Iohannes, Bonifacius, and the overrated Aetius) that further gutted the Roman army and permitted the Vandals to cross into Africa and capture Carthage. It is only with the loss of Carthage that we can even begin to start talking about Roman fiscal collapse: not a cause, but a symptom, of the vicious fratricidal conflict.
JEELEN said:
Then you should have no trouble pointing out one.

Sure thing, champ.
What was new however, was the appearance of larger conglomerates of German tribes at its borders. The 4th century sees a whole range of new peoples´ names appearing, a good deal of which had been before referred to as mere tribes.
This is wrong. Previously noted.
JEELEN said:
So while the East had been presented with one new superpower (the adjustment to which placed a huge strain on the imperial structure), all along the Rhine-Danube front, numerous larger local powers emerged, whose military were all a par with the Romans.
Similarly wrong. Worst offender is bolded. Underlined segment is the part where you insinuated some sort of political institutional development in the extra-Roman world that I (apparently mistakenly) thought was a reference to something real historians were actually talking about.
JEELEN said:
Instead of being incorporated within the military, they were now allowed to occupy their own land within the empire and under their own leaders.
This is a gross simplification, moving a process that mostly happened during and after the 460s (when Rome was already kinda screwed) to much earlier in the century. Walter Goffart destroys this.
JEELEN said:
They no longer effectively became romanized then, and after a while, as it turned out, they were in fact germanicizing the areas they occupied - to a degree, that is, as these ´peoples´ were never that numerous as to reverse what the Romans had done for centuries.
Speaking Latin, serving in the Roman army, conversion to (Chalkedonian) Christianity...not the hallmarks of "Romanization" I guess?
JEELEN said:
But they did cut in on the Roman taxbase, as huge tracts of, indeed, arable land, no longer payed its surplus to the imperial treasury. So, in a way, the Romans were paying for their own demise.
Directly contradicted by yourself earlier in your post when you agreed with me.

...lot of repetition in this post...
JEELEN said:
As to ´fratricidal civil war´ leading to these events, I don´t see any proof for this, nor has it been effectively presented. Yes, the East intervened in the West, but this was a matter of dynastic policy usually, and yes, there was intrigue in Rome, in Constantinople, and in the military, but this also might be termed as endemic to the Roman polity since the early days of the res publica.
The fact that civil war itself had happened before does not mean that the specific civil wars of the late fourth and fifth centuries were not the proximate causes of the demise of the WRE. It just changes the cause from a long-term Great Big Trend to contingent events.

With that said, the civil wars of the late fourth and early fifth centuries were systemic: they represented a clash between Gallic interests and imperial ones. Even after one civil war was won, more of the same for the same causes popped up afterwards because the underlying problem - elite management - was never dealt with. Eventually, the emperors began to deal with that problem, but by that time, the Roman army had ripped itself apart and much of the remainder was increasingly convinced that the imperial government was no longer able to provide for their needs.
 
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