What if Hitler had waited

[onejayhawk]

Suppose the negotiations with Stalin that led to the invasion of Poland had bogged down. Suppose Hitler took two additional years to consolidate his hold on Czecheslovakia while attacking Poland through similar diplomatic means. Or perhaps after Poland had been divided, declaring peace, as Churchill feared. In any event giving his weapons people two more years to develop tanks, planes and submarines.

Suppose further that Roosevelt decides not to seek a third term in 1940. Certainly another Democrat would have been elected, but who, and how well would he have done with the situation.

Finally recall that Japan was already well engaged in China by this time. They would have two more years to campaign facing only a failing British presence in addition to the Chinese. No Flying Tigers, no long Phillipine resistance.

What happens in that world?

J

 

[wtiberon]

If Hitler had waited to invade Russia and Japan had not bombed Pearl Harbor than the world would be much different. Hitler could have still invaded Poland and France and would be ok. They had England fairly well beaten up with bombings and V2 rockets. Soon enough, If the U.S. never formally enters the war, Germany could have brokered a peace treaty with England and managed to keep its possessions. However I think eventually Hitler would find Russia too tempting and invade...Then Europe would have been under the Hammer and Sickle.

 

[Cecasander]

Perhaps I was born earlier, rescued the world from communism and install an worldwide socialistic and progressive goverment instead. Perhaps we had colonized the moon already....

To bad I was born to late

 

[Dr. Dr. Doktor]

Originally posted by onejayhawk
Or perhaps after Poland had been divided, declaring peace, as Churchill feared.

How should Hitler be able two 'declare peace' after France and Britain had declared war on Germany.

Also had Hitler waited two more years, Stalin would have been all over the place, in Scandinavia, in the Balkans and possibly in Poland.

The war in Europe was an irritating sideshow to make it difficult for Hitler. He declared war on Denmark and Norway, only after British warships had laid mines in Norwegian waters, threatening the steel supply. Yuguslavia was invaded after the British formented an anti-German coup there. Greece, well that was Mussolinis mistake.
The Benelux countries were invaded because that was the only way to get into France. And it was after all France which had declared war on Germany.

Had Hitler waited a couple of years The United States (which began to expand its fleet in 1936?) and the Soviet Union (Army officer purge in 1936) would have been so strong that any war would have been a foregone conclusion.

 

[thedirk]

Hitler waiting would not have helped his cause any. Yes German militarization would have been further along, but Russia would have been better prepared and he couldn't have done any better than he did with taking France and the low countries. So in the end the situation would have been comparable. A quick victory in France, invasion of Britain not quite feasable, opens a second front with Russia beginning a brutal bloodletting, etc. etc. etc.

 

[onejayhawk]

Originally posted by Dr. Dr. Doktor
How should Hitler be able two 'declare peace' after France and Britain had declared war on Germany.

Easily. If Hitler had declared that the Germanic portions of Poland were rightfully his, regardless of the truth of the statement, the rest of Europe would have swallowed it. As it is, the time before the invasion of Belgium was called "The Phony War" and variations on that theme.

Originally posted by Dr. Dr. Doktor
Also had Hitler waited two more years, Stalin would have been all over the place, in Scandinavia, in the Balkans and possibly in Poland.

Precisely my point. By engaging in the same kind of, excuse the expression, gunboat diplomancy, Hitler had the opportunity to play high stakes poker with Stalin. My question has to do with outcomes of such a contest.

Originally posted by Dr. Dr. Doktor
Had Hitler waited a couple of years The United States (which began to expand its fleet in 1936?) and the Soviet Union (Army officer purge in 1936) would have been so strong that any war would have been a foregone conclusion.

I disagree. I direct your attention to Patton's experience taking over 3rd Army Corps (IIRC). The trucks and tanks were so in need of repair that half wouldnot run at all. Patton ordered $50,000 (depression era, more like $1,000,000 today) worth of parts from Sears catalog, and paid for them out of his own purse. While the US Navy was in an expansion mode, it did not compare to Germany's pace. Perhaps you hae a point with regard to the Russians.

J

 

[West German]

By 1942, the Americans and Soviets would have built up huge armies and navies and would have invaded Germany with Britain.

 

[Cecasander]

If Germany stoped war for a period of time after invading Poland, I cannot see why Stalin would invade Scandinavia. Finland was allied with Germany, Sweden was totaly neutral and Norway was allied with Great Brittain. The Sovjet Union wasn't such a warmonger country, and actualy it fought very little wars after WW2 (one of them was Afghanistan in 1979, becourse they fiered that the religious fanatics in that country would infect the order in their own islamitic areas)

 

[Panda]

Originally posted by Cecasander
If Germany stoped war for a period of time after invading Poland, I cannot see why Stalin would invade Scandinavia. Finland was allied with Germany, Sweden was totaly neutral and Norway was allied with Great Brittain.

In 1939, Finland was neutral. The only foreign aid came to Finland from Sweden, in the form of volunteers. Nazi Germany actually seized arms shipments from facist Italy en route to Finland and held them until the end of the Winter War. Ever heard of the little amendments Molotov and Ribbentrop made to the non-aggression pact? Finland and Germany weren't fighting together until July 1941.

Originally posted by Cecasander
The Sovjet Union wasn't such a warmonger country, and actualy it fought very little wars after WW2 (one of them was Afghanistan in 1979, becourse they fiered that the religious fanatics in that country would infect the order in their own islamitic areas)

Of course they didn't 'warmonger', they were busy crushing uprisings in East Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

 

[Stefan Haertel]

(one of them
was Afghanistan in 1979, becourse they fiered that the religious fanatics in that country would infect the order in
their own islamitic areas)

This and the fact that they were about to lose all the influence in Afghanistan they had so painfully won with a pro-soviet monarch.

 

[Remorseless]

Interesting question. Fortunately we never found out, because Hitler was facing immense political and (more importantly) economic problems at home, which goaded him into war a little earlier than he planned.

As an old paper map wargamer, I recall several wargames published in the '80s and '90s dealing with that very scenario, although they took from the standpoint that the German/Japan alliance won WWII and conquered the entire world, only to begin a war with each other (shades of Orwell's 1984).

In reality, I think it would have just made WWII longer and bloodier, but with the same results. The German strategic position was poor even though its tactical and operational posture was good given its central position between its main antagonists. One thing that definitely would have happened was a more extensive use of atomic weapons. So let's all thank God (or Allah or the hands of fate or the twists of time, whatever) that Hitler moved when he did.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

The military planners of Germany originally planned for the armed forces to be adequately equipped only in 1944 for a major war. However the easy pickings from the Rhineland onwards whetted Hitler's appetite and drove forward their schedule. Resulting in the Germans going to war with less-than-optimal equipment, esp for the Soviet campaign.

Still, the Germans picked up much fr looting the arsenals of defeated countries (esp Czechoslovakia and France etc)...

 

[Kennelly]

If Hitler had waited in the East,Stalin would've invaded relatively soon.The Soviets always wanted to bring the Red Flag to Berlin and they certainly would have attacked also.If this had happened,it's not too unlikely most European countries would've joined Nazi Germany in fighting USSR.The fear of Communism was still much bigger than the fear of Fascism and the Soviets could've faced all of Europe to fight.
But Hitler never intended to wait long in the East,he wanted Lebensraum and to subjugate/exterminate the Slavs.I think,if Hitler had listened to his military advisors and avoided the enourmous number of mistakes caused by him,Germany could've won WW2

 

[Alcibiaties of Athenae]

Germany would have been bankrupt by 1941, the Reich would have colasped in economic caos, this comes from the president of the Reich's bank in 1938.
It was only by seizing the gold reserves of defeated western nations, and slave labor that Germany remained solvent.

Also, Hitler's Parkinson's would have deteriated his reasoning more, as events showed, his judgement became more impared over time.

France would have a large modern airforce, as would Britain, and Germany would have a very rough time in the west, in the East, the Soviets would have large numbers of superior armored vehicles.

Hitler had no concept of advanced planning, and didn't really understand economics.
The longer he waited, the more doomed he would be.

 

[willemvanoranje]

so he acted on the best moment for him?

 

[Switch625]

Originally posted by willemvanoranje
so he acted on the best moment for him?

More like he forced himself and his nation into a bad situation with only one way out.

 

[Zcylen]

it was part of his plan, everything was ok and done in the precise time.
but invading Russia was a big big mistake.

 

[D' Artagnan]

I know this is the most important event of the 20 th century but shouldn't we move on to other well important historical events like WW 1 (largely 'under-rated'), colonization, ancient empires...

No offense, but it would be rather more unteresting than ' What if Stalin had shaved is mustache' sort of threads

 

[Switch625]

It's not like anyone was forcing you to read it.

 

[MajorGeneral2]

Originally posted by D' Artagnan
I know this is the most important event of the 20 th century but shouldn't we move on to other well important historical events like WW 1 (largely 'under-rated'), colonization, ancient empires...

No offense, but it would be rather more unteresting than ' What if Stalin had shaved is mustache' sort of threads

Well, there's no doubt the First World War was far more important than the Second (the Second depended entirely upon the first, for instance), but people are infatuated with WWII. I'm a bit lonely in my WWI interest, but if you want to discuss it, POST A THREAD! (I'd appreciate it )

Back on topic. So the consensus here is "Hitler was screwed no matter what." If he would've waited, his enemies would be stronger, if he'd gone to war sooner, he wouldn't have been quite ready himself. Is this a fair analysis?
Of course, there were still instances where Germany could have won anyway. By delaying his Soviet invasion several weeks to go into the Balkans, he gave himself less time to win before winter, and we all know how close he came to holding Moscow (and Leningrad and Stalingrad) anyway.