Stapel
FIAT 850 coupé
I wasn't there, thus I do not know
Why the plagues in China
- Thread starter stratego
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I wasn't there, thus I do not know
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Oh thats right, you were busy fending off the Mongols at the time
Pounder
Phaethon was here
You would think that the fact that China has the largest population, that would indicate that they historically have had a low incidence of pandemic disease.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
You'd think the opposite. High population densities tends to correlate with high incidence of epidemics.
Pounder
Phaethon was here
I guess I was not talking about now, I was talking historically, as someone suggested the plague that hit Europe ages ago came from China. Edit: Never heard of China getting the Black Plague.
I agree that today that it is the prime breeding ground for flu like diseases. I understand that most flu strains are mutated in birds and then passed to human.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
I wasn't really speaking of the modern age either - the correlation breaks down with modern 1st world cities, in which contagious diseases aren't relevantly higher than in the surrounding countryside.
The problem with China is that older historical sources tend to ignore epidemics and the like. Some historians believe that the Black Death did hit China, and contributed to the fall of the Yuan dynasty (it's known that the Emperor/Khan died of disease in 1328, which helped destabilize the dynasty), but there simply isn't evidence either way.
Same problem with India, BTW. In the 1340s, the Delhi Sultanate is suddenly weakened for no obvious reason, and the Sultan had to abandon a campaign in the Deccan because his soldiers were dying of an epidemic. Naturally, some historians have concluded the Black Death had struck, killing millions of taxpayers as well as the Sultan's soldiers, but since no Indian historians was interested in what happening to common people, we can't know.
We do know, of course, that there were plenty of epidemics in India in the 18th and 19th centuries (including many outbreaks of bubonic plague, altho none as devastating as the Black Death). There seems to be every reason to believe there was plenty of epidemics in earlier centuries too. Same for China.
The problem with China is that older historical sources tend to ignore epidemics and the like. Some historians believe that the Black Death did hit China, and contributed to the fall of the Yuan dynasty (it's known that the Emperor/Khan died of disease in 1328, which helped destabilize the dynasty), but there simply isn't evidence either way.
Same problem with India, BTW. In the 1340s, the Delhi Sultanate is suddenly weakened for no obvious reason, and the Sultan had to abandon a campaign in the Deccan because his soldiers were dying of an epidemic. Naturally, some historians have concluded the Black Death had struck, killing millions of taxpayers as well as the Sultan's soldiers, but since no Indian historians was interested in what happening to common people, we can't know.
We do know, of course, that there were plenty of epidemics in India in the 18th and 19th centuries (including many outbreaks of bubonic plague, altho none as devastating as the Black Death). There seems to be every reason to believe there was plenty of epidemics in earlier centuries too. Same for China.
The Chinese empire did suffer from periodic outbreaks of plagues; however the effects were never too devastating, at least not on the scale of the European Black Death. There were a few reasons...
For one, China's imperial administration was civilian and localized; steps could be quickly taken to deal with plagues. Medicine was considered an important profession in the empire - there were resources allocated towards it.
And public hygiene was an established task of every county magistrate - the lowliest-ranked of the Confucian official-mandarin in the imperial administration.
For another, the Chinese traditionally had a fairly excellent medical system in place (compared with elsewhere). With 'foot doctors' in every village and hamlet. Also they'd a fairly good idea of hygiene etc.
Even today, traditional Chinese medicine is still going strong; in S'pore, they're even offering officiated courses on it and traditional medicine practitioners need to be licensed, just like normal Western-styled doctors.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
I do suspect that local administration did not work to well during the final decades of the Yuan. And I'm unsure how effective medieval medicine and hygiene can have been - the Arabic world supposedly was superior to the European in this regard, yet they suffered even worse.
A big reason that the Black Death epidemic took a so terrible toll was, of course, that it was preceeded by the better part of a millennium without bubonic plague in western Eurasia and North Africa, so resistance levels in the population were very low. Since China is closer to the Central Asiatic homeland of the disease, they may have had periodic, smaller outbreaks of it, maintaining a highish level of resistance and avoiding demographic collapses. Europe was in this situation in the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries, with plague deaths falling despite increasing population densities, on-going urbanization and only modest improvements in medicine (mostly in the form of quarantaine).
A big reason that the Black Death epidemic took a so terrible toll was, of course, that it was preceeded by the better part of a millennium without bubonic plague in western Eurasia and North Africa, so resistance levels in the population were very low. Since China is closer to the Central Asiatic homeland of the disease, they may have had periodic, smaller outbreaks of it, maintaining a highish level of resistance and avoiding demographic collapses. Europe was in this situation in the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries, with plague deaths falling despite increasing population densities, on-going urbanization and only modest improvements in medicine (mostly in the form of quarantaine).
The last 2 decades of the Yuan were definitely chaotic, with the breakdown in the centralized structure of Yuan govt. Esp after that last effective Mongol lord (forgot his name) was ousted fr his position.
However, plagues were not the main reason - more of a lack of effective leadership at the top, uprisings in various parts of China, decreasing quality of life of the average Mongol soldier due to massive corruption - leading to low morale, badly equipped condition of the Yuan's most loyal units.
Maybe.
But there're massive population movements thru out the Eurasian steppes in prior centuries as well - with the Turkic tribes spreading out westwards.
As may be, but that is one plague in many centuries; a one off case. Today's events show an remarkable increase in the number of new dangerous diseases.
The history suggests something has changed recently. Some new social effect of the 90s, perhaps?
What changed in Hong Kong when China took over. Was there a sudden influx of chicken farmers? Was there a sudden drop in the hygiene? Was there suddenly dergulated markets?
I see nothing in history to suggest the plagues (collectively) are indemic the China, I see only a sudden increase in the number of recent aggressive virus' to have originated there.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
Explanations of the Black Death usually focus on improved trade routes under the Mongols, not migrations.
I'm, of course, neither an epidemiologist nor a scholar of Chinese history. The hypothesis that bubonic plague contributed to the fall of the Yuan has been put forward by people who are, however.
It may be mentioned that to the very best of my knowledge, no European or Mid-Eastern dynasty of any importance fell during the aftermath of the Black Death.
I'm, of course, neither an epidemiologist nor a scholar of Chinese history. The hypothesis that bubonic plague contributed to the fall of the Yuan has been put forward by people who are, however.
It may be mentioned that to the very best of my knowledge, no European or Mid-Eastern dynasty of any importance fell during the aftermath of the Black Death.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
stormbind: That is very poor voting practice.
Edit: Make that "was". The quote in #30 is now corrected.
Edit: Make that "was". The quote in #30 is now corrected.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
My impression is there's been new influenzas from the South China Sea area every few years for at least a century. And someone said SARS originated in Vietnam. I'm unconvinced that there's been anything more than a random clustering of much-publicized outbreaks recently - if you have data suggesting otherwise, I'd love to see it.
"Plagues" are endemic in humans. If there had been an inexplicate lack of them in China, I do like to believe I'd heard of it. XIII, who seems to be well informed on Chinese history, says there were periodic epidemics.
Notice also that the pain threshhold has fallen; modern medicine has made big plagues so rare that epidemics that kill even quite limited numbers of people are getting much media attention.
"Plagues" are endemic in humans. If there had been an inexplicate lack of them in China, I do like to believe I'd heard of it. XIII, who seems to be well informed on Chinese history, says there were periodic epidemics.
Notice also that the pain threshhold has fallen; modern medicine has made big plagues so rare that epidemics that kill even quite limited numbers of people are getting much media attention.
Please explain what you mean by this.
One thing I do know is, ignorance is not bliss. If one does not know, they should ask.
Are you saying that my policy of asking questions and seeking answers is wrong?
Maybe it is different for you, but I would sooner ask a question than argue bitterly over something I know nothing about!
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
Edit I know see that XIII has changed the quote in post #30. Originally only the bit underlined below was quoted.
Your quote in post #30 can hardly fail to give the impression I stated as a fact that the Black Death did hit China. It is however taken from this paragraph in post #26 (underlining added):
which says something rather different. Taking quotes out of context, and clipping sentences so they appear to say something else than what they originally did is widely considered poor style, and indeed dishonest. Now I do hope you did not deliberately set out to misrepresent what I said, but it certainly looks much like it.
I do not know what I've said that could be interpreted as that I think asking questions and seeking answers is wrong. I do consider misleading quoting technics to be wrong.
Your quote in post #30 can hardly fail to give the impression I stated as a fact that the Black Death did hit China. It is however taken from this paragraph in post #26 (underlining added):
which says something rather different. Taking quotes out of context, and clipping sentences so they appear to say something else than what they originally did is widely considered poor style, and indeed dishonest. Now I do hope you did not deliberately set out to misrepresent what I said, but it certainly looks much like it.
I do not know what I've said that could be interpreted as that I think asking questions and seeking answers is wrong. I do consider misleading quoting technics to be wrong.
Moderator Action: Alright, guys, pls stop wrangling. Stick to discussing the topic politely.
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
Aphex_Twin
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The Chinese have only recently modified their largely vegetarian diet (mostly rice) to include meat. It was also the reason they were (and still are) shorter in stature. With the reintroduction of meat consumption, diseases that lay dormant in those animals also awoke, and since the local populace had not developed proper immunities...
or at least that's a good theory
or at least that's a good theory
Kinniken
Riding with William
An other reason why so many epidemics seems to be originating from South China is that while this are is poor, contains hundreds of millions of people living close to animals and so on, it is also in frequent contacts with the outside world, and thus any plague starting there spreads and get talked about in the medias.
In Black Africa however, which is probably a lot worse when it comes to plagues, they tend to remain relatively local and do not attract as much attention.
In Black Africa however, which is probably a lot worse when it comes to plagues, they tend to remain relatively local and do not attract as much attention.
@ The Last Conformist
What I meant by that quote "snippet" was re: Black Death in China and the quote tags merely designated who I was responding too.
It was not out of context, it was just that I was only responding to the issue of the black death. I was not responding to anything else in your previous quote and saw no reason to quote what was not relevant to my post.
So it was a misunderstanding. I can accept that. My action was honest and with good intent, but perhaps it could have been done with more care.
What I meant by that quote "snippet" was re: Black Death in China and the quote tags merely designated who I was responding too.
It was not out of context, it was just that I was only responding to the issue of the black death. I was not responding to anything else in your previous quote and saw no reason to quote what was not relevant to my post.
So it was a misunderstanding. I can accept that. My action was honest and with good intent, but perhaps it could have been done with more care.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
stormbind: It's OK.
Kinniken: That's a good point.
A Chinese guy I spoke with in december claimed that SARS was more or less unable to infect non-East Asians. Anyone knows anything more about that? - that a new disease should be racially restricted does seem odd, since it clearly managed to bridge a species gap.
Kinniken: That's a good point.
A Chinese guy I spoke with in december claimed that SARS was more or less unable to infect non-East Asians. Anyone knows anything more about that? - that a new disease should be racially restricted does seem odd, since it clearly managed to bridge a species gap.
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