World population 11 bil. by 2100

[Loppan Torkel]

UN: World population 11 bil. by 2100 as fertility soars in Africa
http://digitaljournal.com/article/352233

Spoiler :

Wilmoth said: "While there has been a rapid fall in the average number of children per woman in large developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Brazil and South Africa... rapid growth is expected to continue over the next few decades in countries with high levels of fertility such as Nigeria, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Uganda and also Afghanistan and Timor-Leste, where there are more than five children per woman."
The expected population changes from 2013 to 2100 are shown in the graphic below. Eight of the top 10 countries expected to contribute most to the global population increase are in Africa.
The largest increase is expected in Nigeria, with India second on the list. The report notes that India is expected to become the world’s largest country, surpassing China's population sometime around 2028 at 1.45 billion. India's population is expected to continue growing after it has surpassed China' s, while China is expected to experience a decline of about 300 million (the largest decline projected for any country) from 1.4 billion to 1.1 billion in 2100.
Nigeria's population is estimated now at 184 million. It is expected to balloon to 914 million in 2100, a more than fourfold increase. The country's population is expected to surpass that of the US before 2050.
The United States is the eighth on the list of countries with projected highest population increase. The US is expected to post a growth of 146 million or 46 percent, from 316 to 462 million in 2100.

Given the instability in many nations in Africa and other growing regions - is there any possibility, in your minds, these regions won't descend into larger wars between nations, ethnicities and religious groups?

 

[Lord Baal]

I think it's pretty obvious that Nigeria will disintegrate long before it reaches that point. It can't take care of the people it has now, let alone 900 million of them. Similar things will happen in many other African states. A few of them will probably reform and do quite well, but large swathes of Africa are, unfortunately, quite likely to get even worse.

 

[Ironsided]

Your fears fuel me.

 

[Lord Baal]

Your fears fuel me.

Um, okay? Relevance to the discussion?

 

[Ironsided]

Um, okay? Relevance to the discussion?

Popular demand.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

That entirely depends on whether these undeveloped countries stay undeveloped. If you see predictions about how it's going to be 87 years for now ake a moment and think about how the wold was 87 years ago. 1926 it didn't look like the USA would become a global superpwoer, people expected the USSR to collapse after a couple of years and the British were still clinging to their Empire. If the African countries can get it together birth rates will soon fall.

 

[Ironsided]

The US is a power no more. Overpopulation is a non-issue if we accept and embrase humans into our fold. With increasing standars the birth rate stabilize.

 

[Lord Baal]

That entirely depends on whether these undeveloped countries stay undeveloped. If you see predictions about how it's going to be 87 years for now ake a moment and think about how the wold was 87 years ago. 1926 it didn't look like the USA would become a global superpwoer, people expected the USSR to collapse after a couple of years and the British were still clinging to their Empire. If the African countries can get it together birth rates will soon fall.

Exactly. It's like the demographic arguments that "prove" that Europe will be majority-Muslim in the future. Sure, in fifty years, if nothing changes in the demographics whatsoever. But that simply won't happen.

I think Africa is going to go one of two ways - or, more likely, parts of it will go one way and the other parts the opposite. Africa can become a developed region, in which case its birth-rates will fall, or it will continue to be a hell-hole, in which case those birth-rates won't matter, since it will just mean more people crowded into the mass-graves. No matter which way it goes, the demographics will change, rendering this study moot.

 

[Lord Baal]

The US is a power no more. Overpopulation is a non-issue if we accept and embrase humans into our fold. With increasing standars the birth rate stabilize

Yeah, that's great. Could you at least try to make some sense?

 

[Ironsided]

Heh. I do, you don't.

 

[Loppan Torkel]

That entirely depends on whether these undeveloped countries stay undeveloped. If you see predictions about how it's going to be 87 years for now ake a moment and think about how the wold was 87 years ago. 1926 it didn't look like the USA would become a global superpwoer, people expected the USSR to collapse after a couple of years and the British were still clinging to their Empire. If the African countries can get it together birth rates will soon fall.

I believe the prediction the experts are making is that the African countries won't get it together. I'm aware of the likelihood that the prediction in the end will be way off, but I suspect it will be due to factors such as wars and catastrophes. The development and birthrates in these nations are probably calculated and predicted better than what you and I can do.

 

[Luckymoose]

I recall similar population guesses about Germany roughly this far into the past that never came true. I don't believe any of this will work out how we think.

 

[Loppan Torkel]

I recall similar population guesses about Germany roughly this far into the past that never came true. I don't believe any of this will work out how we think.

So there's no reason to prepare for it? Just like climate change, it's too unpredictable..?

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

I intend to be part of the solution, not the problem. I commit both to not fathering an African child, and dying.

 

[Lord Baal]

I intend to be part of the solution, not the problem. I commit both to not fathering an African child, and dying.

Can you guarantee that any child you may father will not itself sire an African child? If not, you are simply passing the buck to the next generation.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Can you guarantee that any child you may father will not itself sire an African child? If not, you are simply passing the buck to the next generation.

No, I cannot make that assurance. Guilty as charged.

 

[Formaldehyde]

I'm surprised the estimate is so low. They could have used the UN high figure of 16B instead of 1 billion more than the UN medium figure to be even scarier:

I share Hans Rosling's optimism facts on this topic, as I do whenever it comes up:


Link to video.


Link to video.

 

[JollyRoger]

The large population will be united and peaceful in honor of the pyramid I will be entombed in by then.

 

[TheLastOne36]

I think it's pretty obvious that Nigeria will disintegrate long before it reaches that point. It can't take care of the people it has now, let alone 900 million of them. Similar things will happen in many other African states. A few of them will probably reform and do quite well, but large swathes of Africa are, unfortunately, quite likely to get even worse.

Ethiopia is another top contender as well. I expect both countries to fall into a Rwandan type civil war.

The only countries that I can think of that have a positive future are Mozambique, Angola and Kenya.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I don't think the world population is going to grow that big for all the reasons everyone's already talked about. Birth rates are going to fall and it's kind of silly to suggest everything will continue as it has for 90 years or expect only marginally slower growth in some nations. That's just crazy! After watching China and other impoverished nations climb out of extreme poverty in the space of a generation, I can't imagine African nations not being able to do the same within a century. Wars, famine and plagues be damned; progress marches forward unstoppably.

The one way I do think that the population could explode within a century is if they figure out how to extend human life spans indefinitely. Given how much our knowledge of medical and biological sciences have progressed in the past few decades and the trend for knowledge to advance ever more rapidly, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to make that life spans will be pushed towards infinite within a century.