Worst odds you ever won/lost?

[cabert]

On my first game I picked the wrong unit and won with a 0.1 strength warrior against an archer defending a city.

that's what i call luck!
beginner's luck, then?

 

[Crighton]

last night playing a modern start game i pitted my navy seal up against a wounded gunship, i had 133% chance of winning (i did, it felt good too).

 

[pixiejmcc]

well beat this:

a horse archer had just beaten my spearman in a city (with ensuing def bonus) and continued towards my cap. i had an archer in there and tho i knew i would win if it attacked my city, i wanted to stop it pillaging, so i hovered the mouse over the horse archer with archer selected and found that the battle was 100% (IMPOSSIBLE TO LOSE). i attacked...

and lost...

so i was dead

when i checked the combat log the chance of me winning came up as more like 60%. i can't understand this.

anyway i still maintain i lost a battle it was impossible to lose

 

[SkippyT]

My longbowman once won a 2% odd battle vs. cavalry And I hate it when I always have 70% odds of winning and I still lose. But I once had about 95% winning odds and lost

 

[scooter]

well beat this:

a horse archer had just beaten my spearman in a city (with ensuing def bonus) and continued towards my cap. i had an archer in there and tho i knew i would win if it attacked my city, i wanted to stop it pillaging, so i hovered the mouse over the horse archer with archer selected and found that the battle was 100% (IMPOSSIBLE TO LOSE). i attacked...

and lost...

so i was dead

when i checked the combat log the chance of me winning came up as more like 60%. i can't understand this.

anyway i still maintain i lost a battle it was impossible to lose

First Strikes mess up the calculator.

 

[T34]

Mine was a knight verus a skirmisher odds were, 13.3/4.2 and the skirmisher did me. I was so pissed.

 

[Tauro]

99,6 and 2%

 

[Chieron]

159% (Drill IV Modern armor/Machine Gun) or 100%
2% (Catapult vs. Longbow on hill)

 

[Muz]

The odds are just estimations, right? Which would explain the wierd wins/losses. Maybe it's a bad random number generator otherwise. But there's plenty of games out there where you lose 95% odds 50% of the time. Luck can be annoying..

 

[Qitai]

countless 98% + losses, won a 0.4% once gaining something like 8XP in that one fight. But then, my data is skewed since I rarely attack with that low probability and often attack at 99% probability. I start to see more lucky rolls when I take more risk and attack at lower probability. Before that, since it is always > 90%, the only thing that can happen is bad luck.

 

[nealhunt]

0.7% last night. Suicide cat versus a stack in a city and it won.

 

[Tycoon101]

In my last game I had a 4/5 warrior with woodsman 1 attack an archer on a hill with a 0% chance of winning... I blew the archer to shreds and didn't take ANY damage!!! That was crazy, I've lost with 95% chances or more also...

 

[Xanikk999]

I just trumped my new record of best odds and still lost.

I lost a cavalry to a crossbowman out in the open with no terrain bonuses.

I had a 99% win chance also.

 

[The-Hawk]

Playing a deity game... yesterday, I had a group of Praets attacking a city with a single archer with City Garrison I. First praet had City Raider I, II, III, as well as Combat I. IIRC, odds were about 85%. Of course, the archer wins, but is slightly wounded. I have another praet in the stack with the same four promotions. Now the odds show something like 98%. You guessed it, the archer chews him up as well. I did finally kill him with a third praet.

I've lost with odds greater than 98% on a few occasions, but I've never had two outstanding units go back to back to one defender like that before.

Same game, I was attacking a city that had three units guarding. Attack odds were around 20%, but I had 6 or 8 praets in my stack. Figured I'd lose three praets, but then kill the wounded defenders with my extra attackers. Three straight low odds attacks, three straight wins. Didn't lose a unit.

So, the RNG giveth, and the RNG taketh away.