Coronavirus 12: Don't Abandon Hope

[TheMeInTeam]

Exponential growth makes it impossible to hide. Either covid is contained or it’s not. Hiding things just buys you some time for a few doublings.

You are missing the point. What does China look like if they "hide" vs "don't hide" exponential covid spread, under the assumption that they don't pay for/make any effort to comprehensively test or track cases? What differences should we expect to see?

 

[Samson]

We acknowledge that Africa has infrastructure and supply chain problems with getting jabs in arms. What do we do to help? Give them our old and nearly expired vaccines to make it particularly hard.

Africa CDC chief calls for COVID vaccines with longer shelf life

John Nkengasong says most of the millions of expired doses in Africa were donated by individual countries or via COVAX and arrived with ‘very short notice’.

Africa’s top public health bodies have called for donated COVID-19 vaccines to come with a shelf life of three to six months so countries could plan their rollouts and avoid a situation where doses expire.
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Though I have to admit it sounds like they are doing particularly well with what they are given, less than 1 in 200 is wasted:

John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said 2.8 million doses of vaccine had expired on the continent, roughly 0.5 percent of the 572 million doses delivered to date. He said 10.4 percent of Africans were fully vaccinated.
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[TheMeInTeam]

My goal wasn't to rag on Africa, but to point out that you really, really don't need a complex conspiracy to report massively wrong numbers for COVID cases/deaths. You don't even need ill will/intent to deceive, though China has demonstrated both of those frequently in other contexts.

 

[Birdjaguar]

You are missing the point. What does China look like if they "hide" vs "don't hide" exponential covid spread, under the assumption that they don't pay for/make any effort to comprehensively test or track cases? What differences should we expect to see?

There is no exponential growth rate of infected people in China. That could not be hidden. Sure they hide their numbers and shuffle thousands off to quarantine. But if you rode an elevator with someone who tested positive, they will find you. If omicron breaks loose out of PRC control, we'll know about it.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

If omicron breaks loose out of PRC control, we'll know about it.

I press X to doubt that omicron is within PRC control, or that they're making any meaningful effort to "hide" otherwise, rather than making no effort to document that and just reporting bogus numbers like usual.

 

[amadeus]

I wouldn't confuse their evil for omnipotence. The question isn't whether they'll try to hide it (they will) but if they can.

 

[Berzerker]

You can see this clearly during the week of October 3, when Delta dominated. COVID-19 case rates then were worst among people with no prior infections and no vaccines. Compared to them:

• Vaccinated people had between 5- and 6-fold lower rates of laboratory-confirmed infections
  
  
• Previously infected people had between 15- and 29-fold lower rates of laboratory-confirmed infections
  
  
• And people with hybrid immunity (both previously infected and vaccinated) fared best of all, with a roughly 20- to 33-fold lower rate of infection.

During that same week, similar trends held true for hospitalizations in California. Compared to unvaccinated people with no previous COVID-19 diagnoses, hospitalization rates were about:

• 20-fold lower among vaccinated people without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis
  
  
• 55-fold lower among unvaccinated people with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and
  
  
• 58-fold lower among vaccinated people with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis

 

[Samson]

I press X to doubt that omicron is within PRC control, or that they're making any meaningful effort to "hide" otherwise, rather than making no effort to document that and just reporting bogus numbers like usual.

What do you think is bogus? Here is a brief description of how it is being reported:

Before the emergence of Omicron, authorities have in recent weeks brought an outbreak of the Delta variant under control in Xi’an, Shanxi province, with a strict lockdown that was blamed for causing food shortages and leading at least two pregnant women to miscarry.

But as one outbreak is brought under control, new ones have sprouted across the country.

In the latest wave, 69 family clusters were found in Tianjin, which shares a border with Beijing. The city tested its entire population of 14 million in two days, which state tabloid Global Times touted as evidence of China’s “miracle of speed” in containing the virus.

Across the border, Hong Kong has ramped up social distancing measures to contain a growing Omicron cluster, suspending face-to-face tuition at schools, closing bars and nightclubs, and imposing a 6pm curfew on dining at restaurants.
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You think it is all made up, and they are testing no one? The lockdowns are just random while the virus is spreading freely all over the country? I agree the official deaths have to be fantasy (3 in the last 18 months?) but draconian lockdowns clearly work.

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[Hrothbern]

Chinese New Year celebration is February 1.

Forbidding the traditional massive amount of people travelling to their (parents) family, often rural, will do Xi no good at all.
On top comes that the often reported lockdown-testing actions in China are, I guess, easier to do in urban areas than the many remote small rural villages.
IDK when that travelling usually happens but the weekend just before Feb 1 is certainly a good moment and when people are afraid that travelling restrictions take place in their area, they could very well decide to travel already days before, starting this coming weekend.

A tricky situation.

 

[Samson]

Chinese New Year celebration is February 1.

Forbidding the traditional massive amount of people travelling to their (parents) family, often rural, will do Xi no good at all.
On top comes that the often reported lockdown-testing actions in China are, I guess, easier to do in urban areas than the many remote small rural villages.
IDK when that travelling usually happens but the weekend just before Feb 1 is certainly a good moment and when people are afraid that travelling restrictions take place in their area, they could very well decide to travel already days before, starting this coming weekend.

A tricky situation.

Add to that the olympics on the 4th Feb as a national priority and it only becomes trickier.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I have a call planned to China tonight; I'll ask my friend about New Year traveling.

 

[Takhisis]

if you rode an elevator with someone who tested positive, they will find you.

This is another set of problems entirely, but even with the doubly-woozening effects of yesterday's third-shot vaccine (fever, muscular pain, you name it) and paracetamol to try to keep it down it's very worrying.

OTOH I could into vaccine, so, nice.

 

[Zelig]

Picked up covid somewhere after not bothering to get third vaccine dose. About a day of mild feverish discomort and a sore throat.

Interestingly, learned that covid can result in herpetiform ulcerations even in the absence of HSV infection. (And in my case, this particular symptom preceded any of the others by nearly a full day.) Review of oral ulcerative lesions in COVID-19 patients: A comprehensive study of 51 cases

 

[Gorbles]

Picked up covid somewhere after not bothering to get third vaccine dose. About a day of mild feverish discomort and a sore throat.

Anecdotally, I have a couple of friends who've recently had it. One got it around New Year, suffered pretty badly, and is still exhausted now, and the other basically had zero symptoms. He only had the positive tests (repeatedly, so it's unlikely to be erroneous). Unsure if either were boosted. Pretty sure at least one wasn't (double vaxxed though).

Obviously no insight into any particular strain. But the variance in both in severity and immune response is pretty wild regardless.

My household continues its lucky streak. I'm likely jinxing it, but with a son in primary school both my wife and I are expecting it as a matter of course. Not looking forward to it personally. My lungs still aren't back to normal, and I had Covid back in March 2020. I'd laugh, but uh. Maybe not.

 

[Zelig]

But the variance in both in severity and immune response is pretty wild regardless.

Seems par for the course for respiratory illnesses to me. The sickest I've ever been involved a week in a shared Airbnb where nobody else developed any symptoms.

 

[amadeus]

Sounds like the chicoms are bringing back the bunghole tests after a Beijing woman got Coronavirus Fast-Acting (from the makers of Coronavirus Classic and Coronavirus Plus)

I think they should stick all the used tests in Xi’s mouth.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I have a call planned to China tonight; I'll ask my friend about New Year traveling.

I had a lovely call. Currently in China areas are tagged green (no new cases), yellow (a few cases) or red (lots of case). With covid the central government declares that everyone can always travel when and where they want except when they can't. The provincial and county governments always make it clear that they don't want you to travel at all and it you come into their jurisdiction from a yellow or red areas they will make your life miserable: long quarantines for you, quarantine your friends, you pay for it all. No province or county wants its green condition changed to yellow or red and since there is constant testing, infected folks will be caught. It is likely that travel during the 10 day Spring festival will be subdued.

My friend has two friends who applied to go to Beijing for the Olympics. No problem just apply! They needed to arrive in Beijing two weeks early for quarantine (food and hotel at their expense); would have to follow all local restrictions even if they change during the games, and then would have to be quarantined for two weeks once they went home, again at their own expense They decided not to apply. There was no guarantee that they would actually see any events.

 

[amadeus]

There was no guarantee that they would actually see any events.

Smart choice: the chicoms put the kibosh on any public attendees (except for those hand-picked by the Party.)

 

[Narz]

My buddy got omicron. I went to Costco w him the other day, he feels fine, I'm sure I'll be fine. I think I've probably caught all three now.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

My buddy got omicron. I went to Costco w him the other day, he feels fine, I'm sure I'll be fine. I think I've probably caught all three now.

Have you caught coronavirus three times?