1992 United States Presidential Elections

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What were the exact circumstances of the 1992 presidential elections in the United States of America, and why did George Bush fail when just shortly before his battles in Iraq gave him one of US history's highest approval ratings?

Just to make this clear, I don't want to hear anything about Democrat/Republican/Communist/Fundamentalist/etc. treason, lies or anything like this, and I would like to avoid a battle between Democrats and Republicans, Conservatives, Liberals and Communists. I only want an objective answer to this question, anything that comes close to mentioned things will be immediately reported to the moderators and this thread will be closed.
 
The economy was faltering, Bush promised no new taxes and then still raised taxes, so people voted him out.
 
"Read my lips: no more taxes!"
Sealed his fate.
 
Quite simply, Bush was accused - successfully, and probably justly - of being a "foriegn president."

Clinton's campaign essentially turned Bush's chief advantages (success in the Gulf War, and preeminance in foreign policy) into a burden by arguing that Bush didn't care about ordinary americans and was ignoring boring stuff like the economy so he could fly around the world and feel important. Since the economy spun into a deep recession just after the Gulf War was over, this criticism hit home.

Clinton set himself up as a guy who could care about ordinary americans and their economic aspirations, and several incidents in the campaign reinforced his superiority at this relative to the distant and disconnected Bush. The fact that Bush had reneged on his "read my lips, no new taxes" pledge by signing a congressional budget that did just that didn't help Bush's credibility in arguing that he, too, could become a "hands-on domestic listener." (To use Dana Carvey's words).

Hence the success of the famous "campaign haiku" that James Carville used to focus the Clinton campaign, which started with the words, "it's the economy, stupid."

Hope that helps.

R.III
 
Thanks to all. It's so simple I didn't even start thinking there.

Sounds awfully like what the German govt. does currently, only that here they were smart enough to promise no tax levation before the elections, and raising them afterwards. :D
 
Off-topic:

Yeah, we could see that coming a mile off over here. Did the German press not predict it before the election? It seemed pretty obvious.
 
You've got the "no new taxes." Bad.

Then you've got Ross Perot. Worse.

In retrospect, though, it's good that Bush lost 1992, otherwise who might we have had to handle September 11th? Gephardt? Daschle? Scary prospects.
 
Off-topic:

Yeah, we could see that coming a mile off over here. Did the German press not predict it before the election? It
seemed pretty obvious.

Well, I did see that coming, and much, much more of what can be described as broken promises, for example the all-of-the-sudden possible support of a "possible" war against Iraq, all of which are causes why I wouldn't have voted SPD or Greens (the latter however only because of their support to the SPD, I like the party as such); had I been four days (that's right: four days) older, I would have voted the party of democratic socialism (PDS). Back to your question, of course it was obvious Schröder would break all of his promises, but then, is there anything easier than misusing the naive sentiments of the German mob?

But this is way off-topic, and since my question got answered within the first three posts, I think this thread can be ignored, for there is a serious threat of political discussions here.
 
Bush seemed out of touch w/ the electorate, for example when asked by reporter what was the cost of a gallon of milk, his answer was embarrassingly wrong -- and worse, low...

The economy was in a recession, people were seriously worried about it going from bad to worse. Bush supported NAFTA, which was unpopular w/ working class folks who feared exportation of American manufacturing jobs to Mexico.

Bush was widely quoted following a speech in which he affirmed America's role in building the "New World Order." He was TALKING about the US's new role as world's only superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but to his skeptics this became a euphemism for a sinister cabal of wealthy industrialists finally consolidating their conquest of the Earth.

He was never the best public speaker -- he was to Reagan what Al Gore was to Clinton. By the time the presidential debates came around, he was demoralized by his drop in approval and it showed in his uninspiring delivery. Clinton, by contrast, was an excellent, polished speaker, consistently on-message and confident.

He even admitted to having problems expressing "the vision thing." He was portrayed as kind of a dork by a number of sources in the press. He threw-up on a Japanese diplomat. He sometimes butchered the language in his speeches. He had to defend against a "wimp factor."

He was criticized for choosing Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988, and retaining him in 1992. Quayle was perhaps the most notoriously poor speaker in the history of US politics. He frequently made unintentionally hilarious gaffs. Making fun of Dan Quayle was a major cottage industry during Bush's term in office.

In his 1988 campaign, Bush promised he would not be involved in raising taxes. He said "Read my lips. No new taxes." Then as the economy floundered he raised taxes. This alienated some of his core supporters.

But Bush probably would have won if not for H Ross Perot's remarkable third party campaign. Perot appealed to (sorry to have to use the word) Conservative voters -- people who opposed NAFTA, opposed new taxes, wanted the focus to be on domestic issues. So he siphoned more votes f/ Bush than f/ Clinton.

The following were (at the time) lesser criticisms of Bush. These were not so much related to why he lost the election as they were just extra rumblings hovering in the background.

The Savings & Loan debacle happened on his watch. This was a $150 BILLION (in retrospect, because it was financed over time some say it will ultimately cost the tax-payers $400 BILLION) bail-out for S&L's that had taken advantage of Reagan-era deregulation to finance land deals that went south. The fed felt it had to bail-out investors at the expense of the taxpayer to ensure that the banking system would not collapse.

Bush had been involved peripherally in the Iran-Contra scandal. This was a deal the CIA had brokered with Iran whereby the US would sell weapons to Iran in exchange for oil, then the oil would be more or less laundered through Israel, converted into cash and the cash used as a slush fund to fund CIA operations in Nicaragua. At the time, Nicaragua was ruled by the Sandinistas, a party that the US had supported in their rise to power in the late 70s. But in a Castro-like move, the regime went Socialist, nationalizing industries (which means that the industries American stockholder's had their assets in Nicaragua seized by the gov't.) The Contras were the new revolutionary organization.

Also at some point in his career, Bush had been the head of the CIA, which is a position of authority that many Americans do not trust. The CIA is often regarded as cavalier about flouting laws and dodging oversight in pursuit of national interests. This is probably partially true -- secrecy goes hand in hand with intelligence operations. However it is spurious to suggest that his involvement with the CIA automatically made Bush corrupt.

In the background of all this is the incident at Ruby Ridge. It didn't make mainstream news until the following year when the stand-off in Waco, TX resulted in the destruction of their compound and the deaths of most of the Branch Davidians, but in 1992 the ATF (Alcohol-Firearms-Tobacco) had a stand-off at Ruby Ridge resulting in the deaths of a rifle-wielding 14-year-old and an unarmed pregnant woman. The law-and-order policies of the ATF were a legacy of the Reagan years (and bi-partisan "tough on crime" legislation,) when funds were pumped into the military and law enforcement agencies, and they were given increased authority to prosecute those who found in violation of gun laws. In effect, the increased authority of the ATF was a corollary to the never-ending War on Drugs.

Eventually the political fall-out of the increased powers of these law enforcement agencies fell into the laps of Clinton and Janet Reno. Since then the ATF has played it cool, but a significant chunk of Americans are now less trusting of zealous law enforcement agencies.

Also the Waco stand-off was Tim McVeigh's rationale for orchestrating the OKC bombing in 1995.

Just as his presidency was winding down Bush authorized increased military presence in Somalia, a nation that had recently fallen into anarchy. Clinton inherited this problem too, and the result was depicted in 2001's "Black Hawk Down." In late 1992 the nation was in more economic duress than in 1990 and was less sympathetic to the plight of the Somalis than that of the Kuwaitis, so the military action did nothing to increase Bush's popular support.
 
Everything said so far is valid, but I also think that Bush Sr. just didn't connect well to people. He always seemed stiff and ill-at-ease, and his public personality seemed forced. This, coupled with a couple public gaffs created a PR disaster that sunk him. At one point he apparently was surprised by a scanner at a supermarket, making him seem out-of-touch with how the average American lives. Add to this his squeaky voice and you have a leader who didn't excite people, and in our day and age that is unfortunately important, that a candidate be "telegenic". Bush Sr.'s misfortunate was having an opponent who did connect well with people.
 
In 1981, after Goose Green fell, Argentina wanted a ceasefire but Maggie Thatcher refused one until the Argentinians had surrendered Port Stanley and in the whole of the Falkland Islands.

In 1991, after Kuwait fell, George Bush Snr gave Saddam Hussein a ceasefire - dammit. His administration encouraged the kurds and the South Iraqis Shiites to revolt and then failed to support them.

All the US army had to do then was to fill up again with ammunition, food, fuel and water and take two days recuperation (sleep) before carrying on into Iraq. The Iraqis would have surrendered in masses all the way to Bagdad.
 
The single biggest factor - H Ross Perot. Perot was after Bush, for reasons that are still a mystery. Perot had some credibility at that time, and drew heavily on Bush's fringe areas. The "Read my lips" fiasco alienated a lot of blue collar votes who has Perot telling themthere was an easy solution.

The second biggest factor. The Democrats had Bill clinton running the campaign. Say what you like about him personally (elsewhere please or AoA will close the thread) but Bill Clinton is the best hands on political strategist in the world. GHWB sat fat and happy, while Clinton and Perot pulled the rug out. even then it was very close.

J

PS a similar thing happened to the Democrats in 1968. George Wallace took pivotal votes away from Hubert Humphrey. It is clear that Kennedy, had he lived, would have won easily.
 
A major third party candidacy by Perot hurt Bush I. Clinton was elected with one of the lowest pluralities in USA history. Clinton's second election was also a low plurality. Bush II (and Gore) in the 2000 election got a higher % and more votes than Clinton did in either or his election.
 
Perot did not hurt Bush. I voted Perot in 1992 and would have voted Clinton over Bush. I did vote Clinton in 1996. Perot took votes from both candidates and did not cause a state to go to Clinton that would have gone to Bush had Perot not ran. The reason Clinton won with a such a low plurality is that Perot was the strongest third party candidate in generations. A more persuasive case can be made that Nader cost Gore Florida and thus the 2000 election.

Shortly after the 1992 election, a classmate asked who I voted for. I said Perot and he replied it was a shame I threw my vote away. I asked him who he voted for. He said Bush. I replied that it was a shame that he threw his vote away too.
 
I beg to differ: if Perot had not run, Bush would have won. Perot was running on a conservative anti-government, anti-internationalist platform which would grab many Conservatives alienated by Bush's policies on NAFTA, the New World Order, the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act), getting involved in Somalia (yes Bush started that fiasco), and raising taxes in economic downturn (bad idea). Here are the percentages of the popular vote:

Clinton: 44,909,806 43.01%
Bush: 39,104,550 37.45%
Perot: 19,742,240 18.91%
 
Originally posted by JollyRoger
Perot did not hurt Bush. I voted Perot in 1992 and would have voted Clinton over Bush. I did vote Clinton in 1996. Perot took votes from both candidates and did not cause a state to go to Clinton that would have gone to Bush had Perot not ran. The reason Clinton won with a such a low plurality is that Perot was the strongest third party candidate in generations. A more persuasive case can be made that Nader cost Gore Florida and thus the 2000 election.

Shortly after the 1992 election, a classmate asked who I voted for. I said Perot and he replied it was a shame I threw my vote away. I asked him who he voted for. He said Bush. I replied that it was a shame that he threw his vote away too.
Agreed. Perot appealed to a broad spectrum of the disaffected "anti-activist", read liberarian leaning, middle. Of those who would not pay close attention, he came across as reasonable, by oversimplifying everything and saying "We can fix that." If he were any less of a egomaniacal dictator, there might have been some lasting headway, mostly at the expense of the Republican party, which is where most libertarian thinking people end up.

It should be noted that conservative icon Rush Limbaugh took considerable heat, from his own core group, for refusing to get on Perot's bandwagon early. In retrospect it is obvious that he simply read Perot for the despot he is. It is clear that Perot was personally after Bush. Limbaugh has been a major fan of Ronald Reagan, and by extension Bush, from the beginning. So it was inevitable that it would fall out the way it did. BTW if anything, he is even more supportive of GWB.
 
Originally posted by JollyRoger
Perot did not hurt Bush. .

As shown by numerous pools at the time. Perot Took 2 to 2.5 otherwise Bush voters to every Clinton voter he bagged. He got most of the pro choice Republicans, among others.
 
How many electoral votes did Perot get? How many states would have gone from Clinton to Bush if Perot did not run? How many Perot voters would not have voted at all if Perot did not run? Most of the damage to the Bush campaign was self-inflicted by George Bush himself. Clinton did the second most damage by taking advantage of Bush's mistakes and playing them off in a less crazy fashion than Perot. Perot did more damage to his own campaign than he did to Bush's and the early supporters of Perot that jumped ship probably jumped ship to Clinton in higher numbers than to Bush. I worked for the law firm than ran the Perot campaign until he infamously dropped out. In 1992, I spent way too much time doing research on how to get Perot on the ballot in various states. It may be true that Perot took more popular votes from Clinton than from Bush, but in my opinion, he did not cost Bush a single electoral vote.
 
Originally posted by JollyRoger
How many electoral votes did Perot get? How many states would have gone from Clinton to Bush if Perot did not run? How many Perot voters would not have voted at all if Perot did not run?... It may be true that Perot took more popular votes from Clinton than from Bush, but in my opinion, he did not cost Bush a single electoral vote.

Bang on, Jolly Roger. As we say in the business, "it's all math," meaning it matters where the votes are just as much as who they're for. It also matters who votes, not just the percentages, since angry voters who switch parties are equally capable of staying at home (particularly in the US system).

Frankly, the line that "it was Perot's fault" is exactly what Stefan wanted to avoid: sad partisanship. It's as bad as Democrats blaming Nader, when they couldn't even win Tennessee. Perot's a convenient Republican scapegoat for a campaign that Bush lost for his own party through his own arrogance and ineptness.

And history happened the way it did for a reason. Even if you want to beleive the Peropaganda, keep in mind the following: if Bush hadn't been Bush, then there would have been no Perot. Perot was running on a populist, centrist, "let's do business in Washington" ticket because he could. Bush had made it possible. If Bush had been a solid Republican instead of a divine-right Emporer without a reason to run ("I've had all the other jobs, so now I'm ready to lead"), most of Perot's criticisms would have fallen on deaf ears.

Lousy economy, distant leadership, lousy campaign, focused opponent = Bush bin dun. End of story.

R.III
 
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