2011 MLB Thread

[KMRblue1027]

Most of that FIP difference is because Verlander pitches in the American League. Also their xFIPs are closer (3.10 vs. 2.68)

xFIP is in general used to predict future ERA not what a player has currently preformed thought the season. In terms of Cy Young how a player will preform in the future is irrelevant.

Really bad defense ? Can you elaborate ? At the most basic level, none of the runs against Halladay were unearned (unlike the single run against Lohse). He also was pitching against a Cards line-up 4 of what would be closest to our regular outfield (Theriot, Holliday, Freese and Molina were missing). I'm not saying the Phillies have a greatd efense, but I didn't think they sucked that bad last night.?

If you watched the game you would easily have see what should have been a no run inning turn into 3 thanks to Raul botching a liner that should have been easily caught. That is only one example of how bad the Phils have been defensively this year. If you look at the dWAR on Fangraphs you can clearly see that all of the Phils players are quite negative except Rollens and Utley, with Mayberry and Polly just about breaking even. Raul is so bad that he's cost the team like 7 wins defensively.

PS: Errors are for the most part an irrelevant statistic, especially this year. Small mistakes that aren't scored as errors are the things that cost more runs then almost any error except causing a HR in the outfield.

 

[Lambert Simnel]

If you watched the game you would easily have see what should have been a no run inning turn into 3 thanks to Raul botching a liner that should have been easily caught.

Which inning are you meaning? I'm confused, as the Cards didn't actually score more than 2 runs in an inning, and the only inning which had more than one St Louis run was the first, and one of those was a solo homer to Berkman. I dunno, maybe you're referring to Furcal's lead-off double, and reckoning that Halladay wouldn't have had to face Berkman for the homer if that was an out ? Not sure how much you can really exonerate a pitcher from giving up a bases empty homer, regardless of what has gone on earlier in the inning. Anyway, wasn't Furcal's double to Pence in RF, when Ibanez was playing LF ?

Maybe you're thinking of the game from the night before (with Hamels pitching)?

That is only one example of how bad the Phils have been defensively this year. If you look at the dWAR on Fangraphs you can clearly see that all of the Phils players are quite negative except Rollens and Utley, with Mayberry and Polly just about breaking even. Raul is so bad that he's cost the team like 7 wins defensively.

Thanks - that's an interesting site, though I couldn't find dWAR . But without being able to see the justification, I cannot for the life of me believe that Ibanez can have cost the team 7 games defensively. I could easily imagine he has a defensive Runs Above Replacement of -7, is that what you meant? But if you or the stats are claiming that Ibanez is so bad defensively that an average defensive player would turn the Phillies from 56 losses to 49 losses, well, I just don't see that as passing a basic "does it make sense?" test. 7 runs, rather than 7 wins, yeah, I'd buy that.

 

[El Justo]

i don't buy into all that sabre crap. it's useful in real small doses but to draw finite conclusions from it? nonsense. ibañez misplayed that ball. it's part of the game. everyone has errors at some point. i don't buy into that wins above stuff either. wholly arbitrary imo. kershaw will win the cya.

 

[Darkness]

kershaw will win the cya.

I agree. And he totally deserves it. So does Halladay, but IMHO Kershaw's numbers are just a bit more impressive...

 

[El Justo]

for as much as i would love to see Captain Cucumber win it, it's really kershaw's to lose imo. he's been filthy this year.

 

[KMRblue1027]

Which inning are you meaning? I'm confused, as the Cards didn't actually score more than 2 runs in an inning, and the only inning which had more than one St Louis run was the first, and one of those was a solo homer to Berkman. I dunno, maybe you're referring to Furcal's lead-off double, and reckoning that Halladay wouldn't have had to face Berkman for the homer if that was an out ? Not sure how much you can really exonerate a pitcher from giving up a bases empty homer, regardless of what has gone on earlier in the inning. Anyway, wasn't Furcal's double to Pence in RF, when Ibanez was playing LF ?

Maybe you're thinking of the game from the night before (with Hamels pitching)?



Thanks - that's an interesting site, though I couldn't find dWAR . But without being able to see the justification, I cannot for the life of me believe that Ibanez can have cost the team 7 games defensively. I could easily imagine he has a defensive Runs Above Replacement of -7, is that what you meant? But if you or the stats are claiming that Ibanez is so bad defensively that an average defensive player would turn the Phillies from 56 losses to 49 losses, well, I just don't see that as passing a basic "does it make sense?" test. 7 runs, rather than 7 wins, yeah, I'd buy that.

Maybe I am thinking of the other game but Raul did cost at least 1 run defensively in the Doc start. It's still pretty bad.

About dWAR. It's technically not a real statistic but if you look at the breakdown of how players WAR is calculated. You can figure how much positive or negative their offensive performance contributes (Baserunning, batting, etc.). The leftover numbers are what a players defense contributes to his WAR. The Phils blog I use simplifies this term as dWAR or defensive WAR. Last time they checked everyone's dWAR (About the 3rd of this month.) Ibanez was at -7.2 in one season. Absolutely atrocious. But Raul's offense gives him a minor positive so he's like -4.2 or something of that measure in real WAR.

 

[classical_hero]

So it is basically damned lies and statistics.

 

[GamezRule]

Why do the Royals always wait until they have long been eliminated to play good?

 

[Theige]

i don't buy into all that sabre crap. it's useful in real small doses but to draw finite conclusions from it? nonsense. ibañez misplayed that ball. it's part of the game. everyone has errors at some point. i don't buy into that wins above stuff either. wholly arbitrary imo. kershaw will win the cya.

Actually it's far more useful (more accurate) when you have larger sample sizes.

And that "sabre crap" is used extensively by every MLB team.

 

[naterator]

Eric Bedard served child support papers at Fenway before his last start.

I'm sure i'd hate the guy who did this very much if we ever met; but i have to tip my cap, that is some top shelf dicketry.

 

[Verarde]

Now, if only the Nationals played like this all season.

 

[pacesplace]

Now, if only the Nationals played like this all season.

No no no, why start now? Since Infante hit a walk off homer earlier in the week, I guess it is Rick Ankiel's turn.

The only good thing about tomorrow is that the Braves can't lose.

 

[GamezRule]

Tigers won.

 

[El Justo]

sabre stats are ok in small doses. but it's really over hyped imo.

 

[downtown]

Eric Bedard served child support papers at Fenway before his last start.

I'm sure i'd hate the guy who did this very much if we ever met; but i have to tip my cap, that is some top shelf dicketry.

By a Yankees fan no less. Successful troll is successful.

 

[El Justo]

being in the legal field, i must say that that dude's behavior was really unethical. service processors are usually a little grubbily but that guy was out of line for posting it on facebook.

 

[Theige]

being in the legal field, i must say that that dude's behavior was really unethical. service processors are usually a little grubbily but that guy was out of line for posting it on facebook.

Uhhh don't they generally serve papers at the person's home or place of work? The ballpark happens to be Bedard's place of work...

 

[El Justo]

yeah but the ostentatious-ness is a little absurd. don't you think? to brag about it like that? unethical. period.

 

[illram]

Yeah that's douchey. Process servers have to be dirty, but no need to brag to the public about it like that. I mean it's not like Erik Bedard is actually hard to find--bragging rights should be reserved for the real scummy guys that no one can find and who no one has heard of. Those are the guys that separate good from bad process servers.

 

[El Justo]

our firm is friendly with a retired court officer and he used to tell the funniest stories about when he approached the defendant the things he'd say