2011 MLB Thread

[KMRblue1027]

Now, if only the Nationals played like this all season.

In the first game the Nats played good. In the second they were very very lucky. The Phils had a BABIP of .187 versus the Nats having .378. It just continues to show how unlucky the Phils pitchers have been since the All-Star break.

Edit: Actually I mixed up the games again it was the First one with the absurdly bad BABIP for the Phils. This is what happens when you watch 32 games in 30 days :/

 

[El Justo]

unlucky? are you crazy? you are watching the best pitching ever assembled by our Phair Franchise. and you say they are unlucky? nuts. and you cited a sabre stat to boot!

 

[KMRblue1027]

unlucky? are you crazy? you are watching the best pitching ever assembled by our Phair Franchise. and you say they are unlucky? nuts. and you cited a sabre stat to boot!

The only one of the Big 4 who's has had a below .300 BABIP since the AS break is Lee who's has had it at like .287. Doc's is almost at .400! And yes I will continue to use submetrics because it's proven that they are much more accurate then regular stats. Besides BABIP is almost not a submetric anymore because it's very simple to understand and use.

 

[El Justo]

it's a sabremetric, dude. and it seems like the only one you post. so be it. however, the fact that you call the nationals wins against the phillies lucky is not fair. phils got beat, their pitchers did not make the pitches they needed to make when it mattered...it's as simple as that. there's no such thing as luck at the major league level. and fwiw, there are many people that do not put a lot of stock in sabremetrics. so i am not alone in this anyhow, take a step back, smell the ridiculously fragrant roses that RAJ has placed at our feet, the fans...and take it in because there are not many times like these in the history of the franchise.

 

[KMRblue1027]

there's no such thing as luck at the major league level.

Wait how can you possibly believe that?!

Baseball is a crapshoot. Luck is just as big a part of the game as skill if not more.

Besides if the only defense you put up against submetics (which BTW is a completely acceptable term, sabremetrics is more of an old-school way to say advanced statistics) is that you don't put stock in them then I feel sorry for you. Baseball is a game of stats and the advanced ones are by far the most accurate.

 

[El Justo]

these guys are major league ball players you're talking about here. they can crush mistakes. you call that luck. i call it skill. sub, sabre. same difference. don't feel sorry for me young man. the world is my oyster

 

[Darkness]

The Cardinals have signed Berkman to a 1-year, 12M extension. Plan B at 1B if Pujols decides to leave?

 

[El Justo]

a good signing for them, i think. maybe they can try to squeeze some more blood from that stone

 

[KMRblue1027]

Pujols going free agent is a very scary thought, good for the Cards to make a contingency plan.

 

[naterator]

The wild card that nobody wants is still up for grabs in the AL. The Angels may actually take it. They keep gaining ground even though they've been only about .500 the last couple weeks. I wouldn't say it's an exciting race, but it's gonna be close.

 

[Lambert Simnel]

About dWAR. It's technically not a real statistic but if you look at the breakdown of how players WAR is calculated. You can figure how much positive or negative their offensive performance contributes (Baserunning, batting, etc.). The leftover numbers are what a players defense contributes to his WAR. The Phils blog I use simplifies this term as dWAR or defensive WAR. Last time they checked everyone's dWAR (About the 3rd of this month.) Ibanez was at -7.2 in one season. Absolutely atrocious. But Raul's offense gives him a minor positive so he's like -4.2 or something of that measure in real WAR.

Dunno what you mean about "technically not a real statistic". Sure, it's derived from a bunch of others, but so are most of the stats which we throw around here.

Presumably WAR still means wins above replacement, and you're talking about his defensive contribution when you're saying dWAR. Can you give me a link to where the calc is that shows Ibanez' defense has cost the Phils 7 games? If I look at baseball-reference.com, it currently has Lee as contributing +7.2 games through his pitching this season. Your stat is claiming that Ibanez' poor quality defense has cost the Phillies just as much as Lee's good quality pitching has aided the ball club. That, to me, is just not believable.

Gah. Cards have just imploded in the 9th against the Mets. I was really starting to believe, you know, and now this happens.

 

[KMRblue1027]

I'll try to find the post again but it's very hard to find things that are more then a week on on the blog. I questioned the blog lords about the findings too and they said it's legit. But think of the fact the Raul was out their almost every day before very late August so he has a lot more chances to botch a defensive play then Lee has to pitch a shutout inning.

PS: He's an interesting piece about Ibanez and how streaky he is offensively (His D makes a comparable pickup too doing these 'hot steaks').

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/8/19/2372117/raul-ibanez-and-the-amazing-technicolor-update

Edit: Also Ibanez is just starting his 'hot steak' now so we will have crazy power Raul though the postseason.

 

[Theige]

and fwiw, there are many people that do not put a lot of stock in sabremetrics. so i am not alone in this

There aren't very many working for MLB teams. Fans... sure

 

[downtown]

Pujols going free agent is a very scary thought, good for the Cards to make a contingency plan.

Any chance they take a run at Fielder if Pujols bails?

 

[KMRblue1027]

Any chance they take a run at Fielder if Pujols bails?

Never crossed my mind but sounds like a good idea for them. No idea if they'll do it however.

 

[classical_hero]

The playoff picture is clearer now, since we only have the wild card races and they are almost as good as over.

 

[Lambert Simnel]

Oh lord, that was a bizarre comeback by the Cards today. A total of 4 hits in the first 8 innings, and then just the one single in the 9th. But, with 2 outs, 3 consecutive walks gets a run home, and then the winning run comes in on a wild pitch. Beats me why they didn't pull Marmol after the second walk, or at least the third. Guess that's just the level of confidence you can show in your closer when the game doesn't actually mean anything to you.

 

[El Justo]

there is some value in the sabre stats. but i take them with a grain of salt. WAR and ibanez is a much treaded upon topic. burrell was too. i don't buy it. sure raul has some limitations but i would never put a lot of stock in whether to sit a guy or play somebody over him based on WAR. there are so many other variables, and much more specific ones that could paint a much broader picture. sabremetrics should indeed be renamed fan-o-metrics

 

[classical_hero]

I am sure that we have all heard about the Satellite that came crashing down. The rumour was that it actually was the Boston Red Sox crashing down in New York.

 

[Theige]

there is some value in the sabre stats. but i take them with a grain of salt. WAR and ibanez is a much treaded upon topic. burrell was too. i don't buy it. sure raul has some limitations but i would never put a lot of stock in whether to sit a guy or play somebody over him based on WAR. there are so many other variables, and much more specific ones that could paint a much broader picture. sabremetrics should indeed be renamed fan-o-metrics

Raul isn't very good by almost any statistic, whether it's considered "sabre-metric" or not. He absolutely shouldn't ever be in the lineup against a LHP, that's for sure.

And again, if you think MLB teams don't extensively using "sabre-metrics" you are simply misinformed.