I am necroing the thread to share few observations in regards to the OP.
I did some testing recently, very similar to what
@Victoria described in the OP.
So, 7 games, 40 turns each, to see what pantheons AI will choose. I also gathered the scoring for all pantheons from the turn when AI was making a choice. I have 29 sets from 29 decisions.
1. Nothing has changed in GS in comparison to R&F. AI still chooses:
BELIEF_EARTH_GODDESS (5/7 1st choice)
BELIEF_SACRED_PATH
BELIEF_GODDESS_OF_THE_HARVEST
BELIEF_GOD_OF_THE_FORGE
BELIEF_DESERT_FOLKLORE
And basically in that order.
2. What surprised me the most is the fact that
13 pantheons are (almost)
always scored at 0. There was 1 single case for 3 of them out 29 where the scoring was non-zero. So, more than half pantheons will never be chosen by AI.
Even if you remove those 5 top-picks. Among those 13 are such cases as: BELIEF_GOD_OF_THE_OPEN_SKY, BELIEF_GODDESS_OF_FESTIVAL, BELIEF_STONE_CIRCLES, etc. Pantheons that will give quite a lot of value, certainly not 0
3. Is there a problem with the valuation? Nope. I am pretty sure the valuation works correctly. The problem is that it scores the
current situation,
not the potential (or future). This is a huge design flaw because pantheon is chosen once, very early, and cannot be changed. So, for the choice to be meaningful, it has to consider the future.
Right now it does not. All valuations are done based on the current situation. And since this early game the civ usually doesn't have any plantations, mines over strategic resources (btw, those are not even yet revealed), camps, etc. thus their valuation will be zero. On the other hand, all feature based pantheons (like +1 faith to HS from tundra or desert or rainforest) are scored against features that are already on the map. Same with the god of harvest. AI scores all possible removals and it gets quite a high number (no matter if they will ever be removed, this is the opposite case).
BELIEF_RIVER_GODDESS was scored >0 only once (out of 29) because there was already a HS in place close to a river.
If the civ is not building a Wonder at the moment - it will never choose BELIEF_MONUMENT_TO_THE_GODS, even if once makes it +500% production to all wonders, ever.
Why AI doesn't take divine spark which is considered as one the best by humans? Because there are no districts that would justify it at the moment. Pantheons are chosen arount T15-40. AI can have a holy site, maybe a campus, but rarely. So, divine spark was scored 5x (out of 29) for 30-50 points. Compare that to usual valuations for top picks - they are around 300-500.
Earth Goddess - obvious, appeal is there on the map, so AI just counts how many tiles are viable.
I can go on, there are many more examples like this.
4. The bad news is that since this is a conceptual design flaw and fixing it would most likely require to rewrite entire pantheon scoring, I don't think Firaxis will ever do that.