Been debating a lot without putting oout what goals there would be for the combat system. Let me put out mine (based on the 1upt, small# of units assumption), and see if there are better ways to do it
1. Better/Better positioned/used units should be more capable of doing damage to the enemy on average
2. Battles should feel 'realistic'...and so should not be totally deterministic
3. Players should have a high degree of control over battles and battle results (Battles should not be totally random)
#2 v. #3 is where I think the argument of balance is.
To achieve #3 you need
1. Predictable battle results
2. "Caps" on the best and worst random outcome from a battle (in Civ 1-4 in ANY battle it is theoretically possible for Either side to lose and the other to take no damage at all... this is VERY BAD for player control)
#2 is the Spearman v. Tank problem
Part 1: Nearly dead Spearman should never beat Healthy Tank... but that is ALWAYS possible in a totally random system, unless specific rules are put in
Part 2: A stronger unit should NOT be invulnerable to weaker units.. especially multiple weaker units
If the basic combat mechanics are designed right, you should never worry about these problems
Part 2 can be handled with damage (a good introduction in Civ 2.. it needs to be strengthened by making healing more costly)
Part 1 can ONLY be handled by eliminating the "chance to take 0 damage"
The thing to remember is that this is a game not a simulation... the economy+social aspects of civ are Drastically oversimplified to allow for player control and input. The Military model needs that to happen as well. There is a place for the RNG, but is should be limited... it can only go so far... only 2x the damage or 20x
I'd far rather a 50% of doing 2x damage than a 1% chance of doing 50x the damage because that 50x the damage is way to much for a random chance.... but that is what happens in Civ 1-4.
If you want to do 50x the damage you should have
1. gotten a better unit (tech/economy)
2. positioned the unit better (tactics)
Luck should NOT have that big effect in a combat Game
In a game like civ5 though, where hopefully it is not as dumbed down as civrev, having such an arbitrary discontinuity point will simply lead to people exploiting it to the fullest.
True which is why the system needs to be revised even MORE fundamentally.
The Problem is the Random probability of an Unlimited Massive failure.
In ANY battle it is possible to lose your unit (in civ 1-4)...ANY battle... the chance may by 1 in a trillion but it is there.
This is why my system would alway only have two possible results.... each with equal odds (in terms of the effect on a single unit)... people can understand 50% odds fairly well.
The "Maximum Bad result" would be limited NOT be loss of a healthy unit (although you might lose a damaged unit)
I would much rather help people to understand the nuances of elementary probability theory rather than just protect them from a nasty RNG result that lets them lose a 99% battle. Games don't have to be constantly pleasing the player, something I think Sid focuses too much on. Getting angry about a bad RNG result is just part of the experience
No it is an example of bad game design.
Games do have to avoid Unnecessarily displeasing the player.
The power that the RNG has to control the game in combat is too much, I wish people undertood elementary probability theory too, but You shouldn't design a game that relies on them doing so.
Imagine if your production each turn was odds, each turn there was an X% chance that the current project would be finished. Would this be a useful addition to city management...No, even though it would probably be more realistic than the current version.
Instead you can predict and control what you are producing
You should be able to do the same thing with combat... predict and control what you are killing/losing (the only significant 'uncontrolled' factor should be what the enemy units do)