BAM2 The Mongolian Gauntlet (Redux)

IIRC, for stealing with diplomats, there was a larger difference between immediate and careful than there was between careful and safe.

I did a quick look for the article in which I read this, but came up blank (search function is also not working :( ). I also remember the study showing a statistically significant difference between spy chance of success and diplomat chance of success (though I know that the study did NOT take into account the probability of success in first planting the spy.)

All that taken into account--I would say for this game we should stick to safe and careful. I would not shy away from careful, but since we have the cash--why not stick with safe. Let's see if anyone else can locate that old article. I do remember that there may not have been enough data to draw perfect conclusions--just some good trending.
 
My question was more related to the fact that buying the tech would have cost us only 1000 g more than a steal. Hence a save steal must have more than ~70% chance of success to be useful at all and I would perfer ~80% in our case, because a failur might reduce our chance for ToE.
 
It is certainly not in the 80% range with diplomats, AFAIK. Good observation, Urugharakh. The advantage of the steal is that we are not lining the pockets of our future enemies.
 
Quoting Bam-Bam: "Our only hope for ToE is to get the tech before the AI by at least 5-10 turns, and have factories available."

Aren't leader rushes acceptable? I hope so...

1300 AD - We could really use a few more defensive troops... Position a units for the assault on the Zulu in 6 turns. I hope to be able to capture Kyoto, Isipezi, Xinjian, Hangchow, and Macao :rolleyes: This might be pushing it though as the Zulu now have riflemen... Purchase Electricity from the Koreans for our WM and 181 gpt. Electricity, 225 gold and our WM to Shaka for Industrialization.

1305 - Not much. IBT, Canton starts factory (to be rushed as soon as we've accumulated some of shields)

1310 - Not much. IBT, Karakorum starts factory (as above...)

1315 - Hurry factory in Canton.

1320 - Hurry factory in Karakorum. Finally think to check to see how quickly we could research Scientific Method... It would take 10 turns at -69 gpt. I think we are probably better off waiting for one of the AIs to research it...

1325 - More war preparations... IBT, Ulaanbaatar begins factory.

1330 - Ship! :eek: Everyone got Rep Parts last turn... Dyes and 10 gpt to Rome for Furs and Silks. I consider stealing Rep Parts from Wang, but decide that since we'd only save about 300 gold, I don't think it is worth it. To prevent Shaka from allying with Wang, I purchase Rep Parts from Wang for 148 gpt. We have rubber and fortunately it is connected. Hurry factory in Beijing. Cancel our ROP with the Zulu and declare war on them. Since they have multiple sources of rubber, this will need to be a very limited war... A Keishik promotes taking out a longbowman. We lose 4 cavalry, but raze Isipezi (the Zulu culture is much higher than ours and we have a couple of settlers on hand to replace the city...). We lose 1 cavalry taking Xinjian and raze the city. We lose 2 cavs capturing Hangchow and fail to take the city by 1 hp :(. We lose 3 cavs, but take Kyoto. As our two settlers are going to be used next turn, I decide to capture the city. Seeings as I have a couple of free cavalry (that weren't needed to take Kyoto), I decide to try to finish off Hangchow this turn. We lose another cav ( :mad: against a 1 hp rifleman who then promotes...), but finally end up capturing the city... :D Hopefully we'll be able to hang on to our recently aquired lands (and our old cities...) IBT, we lose 2 Keishik and a rifleman. Palace expansion.

1335 - Whohoo!! :band: [party] [dance] From amidst the ransk of one of our elite Cavalry units, the great leader Chagati arises. He is sent to Canton to rush TOE once it becomes available (or Sufferage if we want it...). Hurry factories in Ulaanbaatar and Mandalgovi. Found Erdenet. IBT, Dalandzadgad completes the Iron Works. We lose a keishik. The Zulu begin Sufferage.

1340 - Purchase Spices off of Korea to help out with WW for 46 gpt. Nobody has Sci Method yet and everyone is working on Sufferage. Seeings as we have several elite units. I decide to rush Sufferage in Canton in the hopes of getting another leader (also, I think we might be able to outbuild the AIs to TOE in Dalandzadgad). Chagatai rushes Sufferage. Found Tsetserleg. Unfortunately, we don't get a leader this turn. Perhaps next turn.

1345 - Hurry factory in Dalandzadgad. Kill a few more units.

1350 - Kill a few units. I have left a bunch of troops outside of Macao (~6 of them). It is unfortunately defended by an infantryman, so I'll let Bam-Bam decide what to do with them. We can make peace with Shaka (getting around a 700 gold discount on Espionage), but I think we are actually in a pretty good position right now, and think we should let the war continue in the hopes of generating another leader ( :worship: ) to rush the TOE. Next turn, three of our cities will complete infantry builds. After that, I'd suggest switching back to cavs (or artillery) for the leader fishing (of course, our cities are woefully underdefended (with many of them being defended by spearmen), so maybe we want to keep them on infantry production. (BTW, I haven't MM'd anything recently...)

Here's a picture of our recently acquired lands:
BAM2MG1350AD.jpg


Have fun Bam-Bam!

Here's the save: http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads5/BAM2MG1350AD.zip

JMB
 
IHT: Decide to attack--if we make peace, we will need to wait 20 turns anyway, and there are few wonders left to "save" elites for leaders.

The battle for Macao:

Elite cav vs. vet inf wins 4-4
Elite cav vs. reg inf wins 3-1 and Macao is ours.

And this city was on a hill?? I decide the RNG loves me, for now.

Do what I can to get another elite victory--lose one keshik, retreat one cav, and get another elite cav victory, but there are no more troops in range, and the next batch will all be on mountains. Killing another unit improves our peace negotiations, so peace and 295g get espionage. Drafted a unit in Beijing.

Oops--shaka has no coal :lol:

1355 (1) Almarikh cath--factory. Beijing coal plant--settler. Edo aqueduct--granery. Ulaan inf--inf. Karakorum inf--inf. Korea and have the Corporation.

1360 (2) Beijing settler--inf. Mandal inf-inf. Tabriz hospital--factory. Hanchow worker--library. Rush worker in Ulsan. Baruun-Urt founded on ruins of some Zulu city. Starts on walls. Rush library in Macao.

1365 (3) Macao lib--walls. Dalan coal plt--police station. Karkorum inf--inf. Canton inf--inf. Ulsan worker--library.

1370 (4) Ulaan inf-inf.

1375 (5) Dalan police station--inf. canton inf-inf. Karakorum inf--inf. Beijing inf-arty.

1380 (6) Mandalgovi inf--arty (its over 40spt). A couple more inf. MM cities for magic numbers.

1385 (7) Rush libraries on borders. Rush walls on borders. More worker MM.

1390 (8) Everyone now has Scientific Method. Korea will give us a nice discount (765g) for dyes, but I do not want to add 10 more turns to our min peace period. Shaka will get some cash (he has none), for our ToE run. 2275g to Shaka for SciMeth @ last. ToE due in 7 @ Dalandzadgad. I cannot get this city to 100spt without a hospital. None of the AIs have started ToE, so I think we got it.

IT: Everyone starts ToE.

1395 (9) Looking at the other cities (Zimbabwe, Soeul, and New York. I think we have ToE in the bag by at least a turn or two.

1400 (10) Kyoto builds worker--library. This should be rushed to get some culture up there. Canton is on an arty/turn diet. Other cities are either on inf/2 or arty/2. Karakorum is annoying me at 75spt, but it is building the intelligence agency. Almost all of our cities have at least one vet inf. Our mighty artillery force of 5 units is in Canton. That number should be up by about 20 after Hotrod's turns. ToE is due in 5.

EDIT: Shaka does now have coal hooked up.

The Game

We are in a good position--Rome does not seem to be running away, and ToE should put us in perfect position for more :hammer:. I suggest taking another bite out of Korea. We just got 180ish gpt back, so the rushing economy is in good shape.

Good luck to Hotrod!

Roster:

Bam-Bam (just played)
Hotrod (UP)
Urugharakh (ON DECK)
6thGenTexan
JMB
 
1400 AD (0): At first glance it was looking very strange. Then I realized that I had opened it up in Conquests. Well slave look like slaves the victory condition screen works and most likely wouldn't make much of a difference but said wooops and started up PTW. Here goes. ToE is due in 5 but we are researching Corporation. I change that to Atomic Theory. Kyoto has just started a LIbrary swap it to a Courthouse. Maybe some of those many shields can be reclaimed. Some minor MM brings our Gpt up to +500. Reup our Rome wines for gems deal and rome kicks in +13gpt.

1405 AD (1): Edo completes a granary starts a market. Shanghai start a factory.

1410 aD (2): The infrastructer push and small military build up continues. Rome gets demanding and only asks for 85 gold and TM. Sure!

1415 AD (3): Karakorum builds the CIA starts on a university. Choybalsan builds a granary starts a courthouse. Plant 2/3 spys Korea fails and Wong is upset but didn't declare war. TOE in 2 turns.

1420 AD (4): Erdent builds a granary starts library. Rome declared on Zulus. Chengdu builds factory starts Hospital. Satsuma builds bank starts factory. Got a Korean Spy. ToE next turn.

1425 AD (5): We complete ToE in Dalandzadgad. Pick up AT and Electronics and start on Radio at Min Science. Start on Hoover, due in 10 turns. I am not concerned about losing Hoover so I strike now and Trade AT to Rome for 920 gold and 286 gpt and Corporation. AT to Korea fo Steel and 425 gold. AT and Steel to Zulu for Refining. :( There is only 1 oil on our entire continent and it is not hooked up. It is in the Northern Zulu territory. Korea went and got some on the other island. Pay 1 gold for some Roman Oil.

1430 AD (6): Pollution is becoming a pain. Start 1 Stock exchange will start a few more next turn.

1435 aD (7): Reup our dyes and 8gpt to Rome for furs and silks deal. Karakorm builds a university starts a Stock exchange. Start a few more as a few artillery completed.

1440 AD (8): Minor tile swapping around a few cities. Hooover is due in 7. continue pollution cleanup.

1445 AD (9): Korea cancells our spices deal. I don't renew. Move workers arournd a bit. continue pushing on infrastructure. Do it now before a war breaks out. Hoover in 6 turns. NO deals with Zulu or Korea. Korea and Rome just picked up combustion. Can trade electronics for that but not really needed just yet.

1450 AD (10): Mandalgovi riots :wallbash: missed it :smoke: fix and scroll the rest to make sure. Rather than paying Zulu or Korea for lux I bump ours to 10% fire entertainers etc. Hoover is due in 5 turns. We still have Monopoly on electronics.

Focused entirely on buildings and tech trades. We have a strong artillery force but very little offense until tanks roll. Radio is due in 35 turns and is a long shot at best even now. War can be brought on Korea or Zulu right now but I think it would be smarter to build up some units first.

Here is the save: http://civfanatics.net/uploads5/BAM2-1450AD.zip
 
Originally posted by hotrod0823
1450 AD (10): Mandalgovi riots :wallbash: missed it :smoke: fix and scroll the rest to make sure.

The riot mistakes just happens occasionally. Don't worry. But using scroll ahead is NOT allowed in our game.

Got it.
 
Minimum research cost us 110gpt. This is way too much for 40 turns on radio. While minimum research is good in the beginning, where you 10% will usually be 1gpt up to at most 10gpt it is useless later in the game. Either don't research at all or use a lone scientist or do full research. Macao is totally corrupt at size 6 without an aquaduct or fresh water and can support our scientist.

Much to my surprise we still had 4 warriors, 6 spears, 1 sword, and 3 pikes. I disbanded the warriors and sent the other into our border cities for flipp prevention. Then I disbanded our catapult and our cannon.

We desparately need more workers. 25 and a couple of slaves would not have been enough for an industrious civ.

1455 AD: Rome signed Korea against Zulus. All Korean cavs and lots of infantry move into our territory.

Next turn with more than 10k gold and all Korean cavs ready for being killed I tried a save steal from Wang, since I don't want to part with electronics. We succeed.

Combustion to Zulu gives us ivory, 52gpt and 45g. We can break that deal when desired, as we get the per turn payment and gave the immediate part.

Hoover finishes and we sell our coal plants in 1475 AD. With all those Korean units inside our territoy I again try for a steal in Korea for the newly aquired technology of mass production. I fail, but our spy got away. Next try next turn succeeded.

Cesar got Electronics and traded it with Wang for mass production. He had no cash for mass production which I would have sold to him. So no real harm has been done.

Otherwise I concentrated on infrastructure and workers. now we have 44 workers. We might stop at slightly above 50 workers, but even 60-70 wouldn't hurt.

Game
 
I had an hour of free time today and I thought I could get in 10 easy builder turns...... Here are my notes so far:

1500AD-0 I see that we only have 5 more turns of oil. Too bad Wang does not have any to take. Is Shaka and Wang doing all the fighting in our land or what????

IBT Rome ends gems and GPT for our wines. Renew but he will not chip in any GPT. I will take his 37g and WM.

Where did this come from?!?!?!?!?!?

Zulu_war.JPG



Defeat an inf at Ulsan and loose a few slaves.

1505AD-1 Building projects going to inf and cav as they complete. Mobilize artillery to clean up our land. Killing guerilla near Kyoto gets us Tolui! Take that Shaka.



Will have to play Monday night.

6gntxn
 
Looks like Shaka wants us to have his oil! :hammer:

Let's take a nice chunk of Zulu land, at least. Would be nice to get them good and gassed--get tanks and run 'em over. Without looking at the save--that may not be a viable option. Ah well.

As usual, no hurry, Texan. Even if you and JMB finished by Tuesday--I will not likely be able to play before Wednesday at the earliest.

Good luck with the :hammer:
 
Seeing how deep into Zululand is their oil, I decide to rush Battlefield Medicine in Canton. Trade a vet cavalry for 2 artillery, 5 infantry a slave and two promotions to elite.

IBT Lose 3 more slaves and a cavalry near Osaka.

1510AD-2 Trade a cavalry for 3 infantry and the great Kublai. :thumbsup: Two elite victories in two turns. Time for an army and the Heroic Epic.

IBT Lose 2 infantry.

1515AD-3 Kill an infantry and start the HE in Daland. Disconnect one rubber source.

IBT Lose 2 cav's and kill an infantry. Shanhai, Hovd & Canton riot with 26% WW. :cringe:

1520AD-4 Kill another infantry. Raise lux to 20% because we can afford it.

IBT We lose our oil. We only needed it for a navy that we have no use for. I did manage to get a battleship first. ;)

1525AD-5 Kill 4 infantry in Osaka and get the great Mongke. :cool: Unfortunately we lost the army by one HP from taking Osaka. :aargh: The Army only had 2 cavalries in it. Rush minor buildings along Korean border. Lose 11 shields by hitting univ not cath in Hangchow.

IBT Korea captures Umfolo and a source of rubber but there is no harbor.

1530AD-6 That last infantry in Osaka killed a 5/5 and a 3/5 cavalry before losing the final HP. Flight is available form Wang and Caesar. Caesar will take ivory and 3000g. I won't be building airports and we do not have oil so I am passing for now. Rush some police stations.

IBT have to renegotiate the Furs and Silks from Caesar. He has no gold to give so it is now straight lux for lux.

1535AD-7 Capture Swazi only losing an elite Keshik. Call me greedy, but I went for a leader. :mischief: Rush some more police stations.

1540-1545AD Rush police stations and wait for cavalry production to pick back up.

IBT Zulu-Korean war ends.

1550AD-10 Lose 2 cavalries but finish off the 6 units in and around Hlobane. And Another Great Leader Ogodei emerges from the ruins. :yeah: He is sitting in Karakorum waiting on orders. That Elite* cavalry is out side Hlobane with the army of one Elite* cavalry.

Edo and Choybalsan are popping workers every 2-3 turns each. A lot of builds completed this turn so you may want to build some arty or inf. I went Cav Crazy. I have 4 cav's in a galleon with a battleship escort heading to Tugela on the island. With Wang not at war now, we may need to beef up that border.

WOW!! Four Great Leaders when I was expecting some quiet turns. :crazyeye:



The Game
 
0 - Use Ogodei to form another army (to be filled with infantry). Move a bunch of troops around. Rush a commercial dock in Ta-Tu. Rush granary in Ulsan (and MM to delay growth for one turn...). IBT, the Zulu bombard our newly created army. Wang Kon attempts to plant a spy.

1 - Troop movement... IBT, :mad: Rome takes Bapedi (the Zulu city with oil).

2 - Well, I think the pRNG hates me today... I lose over 9 cav trying to capture a size 2 city and end up having a 1 hp infantryman (who took out three 5/5 cavs and a vet cav :eek:!!) still defending the city. We capture a zulu artillery. Well, both Caesar and Wang Kon have entered the Modern Age... I decide to purchase our way into the Modern Age. MT from Korea for Dyes and 170 gpt, Flight for 240 gpt, and Radio for 220 gpt. Korea's free tech was rocketry. I consider attempting to steal it from them (if he declared war on us, he's an idiot...), but war with him would be a bit of a pain to deal with right now. I'll wait a turn or two... ;) IBT, we lose a rifleman and several workers to a Zulu cavalryman.

3 - That stupid infantryman takes out another 3 or 4 cavalrymen (even though redlined) before finally dying... We capture the city. An elite cav takes out a cav, giving rise to Jochi! He becomes another army. Hurry temple in Hlobane. IBT, a musketman takes out a cavalry and our people want to build the Pentagon...

4 - I purchase oil from Rome (110 gpt; I can't believe I forgot to do this earlier) so that we can begin building tanks... Hurry temple in Isand.

5 - Hurry factory in Tset. We capture Intombe and the Great Wall. IBT, we complete the Military Academy. Unfortunately, we lose Tugela to the Romans (they defeated the last defender just as our reinforcements arrived...)

6 - Hurry factory in Erdenet. Not much else...

7 - Not much.

8 - We finally redline all the defenders in Ulundi and capture the city. Purchase Spices off of Korea for 70 gpt (to deal with WW). The Romans want an ROP, MPP and 6 gpt. We decline. IBT, the Romans have 2 cav armies on our continent. We capture Tokyo. Hurry temple in Ulundi and factory in Baruun-Urt.

9 - We capture Zimbabwe. Hurry temple in Intombe. IBT, I lose several workers because I didn't pay enough attention...

10 - We capture Ngome and JS Bach's! We should be able to take Mpondo (the last Zulu city) next turn. I have left a stack of artillery unmoved (outside Zimbabwe). I suggest we bring them down to the Korean front, and then once our war with the Zulu is concluded, steal Rocketry from the Koreans in the hopes of getting them to declare war on us.

Here's the save: http://www.civfanatics.net/uploads5/BAM2MG1600AD.zip

Have fun Bam-Bam!

JMB
 
IHT

Move arty SOD toward Korean front. Koreans get Fission--start UN and Manhattan on the first interturn. We cannot beat them to it, and with soon to be only three civs left (Korea being the smallest), there will be a three-way race--inconclusive.

1605 (1) The zulu are nixed, losing one tank and getting three promotions. Looking at the Roman military (>250 inf)--a conquest/domination victory will be a challenge. I think Space is our best option, but I am open to suggestions. Lots of MM to get 80spt or 50spt. Putting some unis on order to support future research capabilities.

IT: Rome declares on Korea. We need to get in on this action.

1610 (2)

Rushed culture buildings complete in most captured zulu cities. Graneries ordered up to speed growth. More tanks and arty complete. Careful steal against Korea fails, but no war.

IT: Gems-wines deal with Caesar expires. I decide to not pursue it further.

1615 (3) Pentagon completes. Dalanzadgad is able to pump a tank per turn. More MM. Another failed steal from Korea--no attention attracted.

IT: Catch Wang attempting to plant a spy. Rome has fission--starts UN and Manhattan.

1620 (4) Pollution screws up our 101spt city GRR. Immediate steal works against Wang. We have Rocketry.

1625 (5) More tanks and arty.

1630 (6) Another immediate steal works--we have fission. Uranium is hooked up--aluminum is reachable in one of our captured zulu cities.

IT: 300g re-ups dyes and ivory for furs and silks deal with Caesar.

1635 (7) Nothing of note. More tanks and arty.

1640 (8) Nothing of note

IT: Rome razes a korean controlled zulu city. P'yongyang completes Manhattan.

1645 (9) Settler heads over to newly created gap from the razed city. This is the 2nd turn in a row I tried a spy mission (expose enemy spy) to get Korea to declare--each time our spy was caught, no war, and then I replanted successfully.


1650 (10) Nothing much. Rome is now at tech parity.

I have all the current military builds rallying at Baruun-Urt. Two turns left on the gpt tech deals and the lux supplying deal with Korea. We have another deal that lasts longer, but that is us buying a lux for gpt, so feel free to break that one. Time to take back our continent. Don't forget to re-up the oil deal with Rome. Aluminium will be hooked up either by using a colony or roading and waiting a few turns for Intombe's culture to expand. Hotrod, you have 51 tanks, 50 arty, 33 cavs and three armies (one cav, one tank, and one infantry) to apply some :hammer: We are building 4.5 tanks/turn and 2 arty a turn. Have fun, Hotrod!!

:hammer: time

Once we have our gpt back from Korea--then it's time to research. I suggest computers first--with a nice round of research labs to follow and Seti. That should give us the edge over Rome.

Roster

Bam-Bam (just played)
Hotrod (UP)
Urugharakh (ON DECK)
6thGenTexan
JMB
 
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