Civilization 5 and Steam(works)

[evrett37]

That's the comment I don't like. Steam isn't the future, because if it is, I won't be part of it, and there's enough others like me that a market will form around is.

A Steam monopoly would also put all the negatives of the consoles onto PCs.

Got that right...Steam might be desirable for a certain demographic (wealthy non casuals) but its business model is a threat to the future of PC gaming not its savior. Console gaming is easy, which attracts young people and new adults. The consoles are catching up in the technical aspects which are PC gamings only lifeline at the moment. The last thing PC gaming needs is another hurtle to entry. Virtual paperwork that stand between a customer and their purchase. Especially with an entry level game like Civ. Online registration, 3rd party software and steams aweful customer service is going to drive away, confuse ect more people than it will it help even if it worked as intended.

 

[arstal]

That said, having Steam around is a good thing- for there is a market for that, and it does improve industry. I just don't want to be a dominant player- nothing outside of Valve games should be exclusive to Steam (or any other sole DD service, first and second-party games excluded)

 

[bhavv]

I'm buying it because its Civ 5, Steam doesnt affect that decision.

However, I do strongly dislike the idea of having to play any game I buy through Steam. Napoleon did this and I find it annoying.

I prefer how Civ 4 BTS works, I can just run it without even needing the CD in the drive.

I would definately want to buy a fancy boxed collectors edition, but I live in the UK and they didnt release the Civ 4 CE here .

 

[crismac]

I read all the options,but I overlooked (I will definitely buy the game,Steam doesn't affect this decision)and chose(I will probably buy the game,steam doesn't affect my decision)Thats what I get for not looking at them more carefully

 

[Mercade]

20% of participants who say they won't buy the game because of Steam sounds like quite a lot. Naturally 32 out of ~150 isn't all that many, so while I sympathise with them, it seems to be not more than a vocal minority and not representative at all of the general public.

 

[evrett37]

20% of participants who say they won't buy the game because of Steam sounds like quite a lot. Naturally 32 out of ~150 isn't all that many, so while I sympathise with them, it seems to be not more than a vocal minority and not representative at all of the general public.

Or flip side being that only a minority of the majority is vocal. Smart, educated people, who have researched all the customer service issues with steam, are just to busy and successful to comment. And another part of the majority is current testing for Firaxis and muzzled by the NDA. And another part of the majority are the future civ gamers who will never be "born" because their school, community center or drunk uncle didnt install civ because with 3rd party programs like steam its too complicated to bother. And because civ wasnt there to keep them busy doing something educational those kids end up snorting crack behind a dumpster and turning tricks for that drunk uncle. Thus steam is destroying the future of America.

 

[The_Coyote]

20% of participants who say they won't buy the game because of Steam sounds like quite a lot.

The number it´s a bit higher than 20 % if you want to extract the information how steam will affect the sell figures. You have 20% already now declaring they wont buy the game, you have to add 4.55 % for the persons "probably NOT buy the game, Steam is making me less likely to buy it". So the guess only using this data would be already a fourth.

To use a bit more of the informations, you could also divide the undecided but objections toward steam persons using the partiton atm observed between the steam has a negative affect and will probably buy / will probably not buy factions. 17 of the "Steam is making me less likely to buy it" are undecided, 14 (edit: now 15) will probably buy it and 7 probably not. So lets guess (in sense of data driven estimate) 5 of the 17 undecided will join the probably not group.

Now we have a guess of (5 + 7 + 32 =) 44 persons which will probably not or not buy the game, and steam is at e last making is less likely to them or is the reason for the decision. So the guees would be a bit over 28 % (44/154 = 0.2857)

But this is only one side. 14 "will probably buy the game, Steam is making me more likely to buy it" and 5 "will definitely buy the game, because of Steam" form the opposite faction. The don´t really care faction, alias "Steam doesn't affect this decision" and will buy the game, but "Steam is making me less likely to buy it" aren´t member of neither of the sides because they would buy the game also without steam. So we have 19 of 154 where steam is the reason or has at least a postive effect, or 12,33 %.

Naturally 32 out of ~150 isn't all that many, so while I sympathise with them, it seems to be not more than a vocal minority and not representative at all of the general public.

A sample size of 150 can be quite good, tbh some studys would be lucky if they had such a sample size. The more important question is how representative the users here are for the entire customer base of civ5, and if the the potential difference will affect the answer behaviour toward this question.

One point is, person who don´t care about game communities, only play unmoded single players games, will be most likely (this time it´s a simple guess, nothing really educated or data driven) a bit underrepresented here. Another point could be that persons with objections toward steam are a bit more active atm. So there could be a bias to both sides.

But finally to your point "not more than a vocal minority". Following strictly the data, the real vocal minority are the person who want steam included, followed (but having already doubled in numbers) by the person with objections toward the implemention of steam and the biggest group are the "steam doesn´t affect my decisions" or "will probably buy the game, Steam is making me less likely to buy it".

Edit: who voted while i wrote this post

 

[Avs]

Just to note: None of the information in the pool represents the total market which Civ5 will be sold to. Heck, you don't even needs a poll for that one. Most people who heard about the game and like the style will buy it. That's how products roll. They don't care about "modding". They don't care about "Steam". They care about things that you and I seem to forget half the time on this forum: Playing with friends, having a blast doing so. That is worth getting any game for.

However, the information can be used to portray what people on this FORUM will be doing. Which is, mostly buying Civ5. It's pretty simple statistics.

 

[eireksten]

@The Coyote:

You forgot to add the possibility that people vote to voice their opinions towards Steam, and not all are entirely truthful. I'll be really surprised if none (or even just a few) of the people who voted "definitely NOT" end up buying the game (a Steam based copy).

Also, how much the probabilities have changed for the different players is unknown, so you can't really make any conclusions about the actual sales gains/losses from those.

I agree that you can't consider this poll representative of the target audience. 150 really is a small sample size when not drawn uniformly across a larger population (than active civfanatics forum users).

 

[The_Coyote]

However, the information can be used to portray what people on this FORUM will be doing. Which is, mostly buying Civ5. It's pretty simple statistics.

Can there be also already here an answer bias? Is there really a participation probability and answer behaviour independency? So can you really use this figures for the entire forum?

Are you sure the difference between the people here and the total market affect the decision of the persons, so that there is a bias in the answer behaviour and your sentence is true? And if you assume there is a bias, in which direction this bias goes? And why do you assume this?

Above are only some of the question which should be answer before someone really trys to interprete the results. But you also have to answer them if you think the results can´t be used in a certain way.

I would also expect that some figures are biased, but i wouldn´t say that there is enough information available to really quantify the bias. But also we haven´t enough informations to neglect the poll results considering the total market already completely.

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You forgot to add the possibility that people vote to voice their opinions towards Steam, and not all are entirely truthful. I'll be really surprised if none (or even just a few) of the people who voted "definitely NOT" end up buying the game (a Steam based copy).

yep, it´s true, but also there is no real figure available to which degree. Also if you compare this result with the last one the number already changed quite a bit. And honestly, i didn´t wanted to really analyze the data - i only wanted to show how you could extract informations. I hope nobody thinks my post above was a real analyze of the data.

Also, how much the probabilities have changed for the different players is unknown, so you can't really make any conclusions about the actual sales gains/losses from those.

Another problem, yes, but can be said for both sides (Steam yes, Steam no). The bigger problem is still to get good estimates for this groups (to estimate the potential sales lost / gain). The "don´t really care" group is - considering the question: "Implementation fo steam, yes or no?" the least interesting group. Because their consumer behaviour isn´t affected by either choice.

I agree that you can't consider this poll representative of the target audience. 150 really is a small sample size when not drawn uniformly across a larger population (than active civfanatics forum users).

uniformly - Ugh! You wanted to say at random, yes? And believe me, 150 is not that small (would be if we would start to identify national effects, but only perhpas), even pre election polls have only 1000 - 5000 (in the last years the figures rised) participants, in some nations still ~500. And more realistic - imagine a study with animals (eg pigs, cows).

 

[Grouchey]

Greed is not good.

 

[Mercade]

Good summary of the Polling chapter of Statistics 101. And we also know that a poll with voluntary participation is again different from a random pool. So let's agree that these polls are mostly for entertainment purposes.

On that note, it would be interesting to see the results of rerunning this poll one month after release date with all permutations of the question:

• I did [not] buy Civ5 [yet] and Steam did [not] influence my decision.

 

[eireksten]

uniformly - Ugh! You wanted to say at random, yes?

I meant drawn randomly with a uniform probability distribution across the entire population (or possibly only the target audience). This poll is not even close.

 

[Vimp]

I actually buy all my games from steam now, ever since last christmas when I discovered that steam has exccellent specials very regularly. During christmas there were a ton of games that were being offered for like 50%-75% off. Since then I have noticed that they have weekend specials and midweek specials every single week. Now, because of steam, I can't bring myself to pay full price for any game. As an example of their deals here is what I paid for some of my latest purchases from them:

Civ4 Complete Edition - 75% off - $10usd
Tropico 3 - 75% off - $7.50usd
Codmaster's Racing Pack(includes Dirt, Dirt 2, Grid, Fuel, and Toca Race Driver 3) - 75% off - $17.50usd

Being a pack the Codemaster games were already 75% off from what it would cost to buy the games seperately and then they had a 75% off special on the pack itself.

I'm fairly confident that Civ5 will be on special within maybe 6 months of release, if not during the christmas sale they have. So that is when I will be buying it.

 

[Akka]

20% of participants who say they won't buy the game because of Steam sounds like quite a lot. Naturally 32 out of ~150 isn't all that many, so while I sympathise with them, it seems to be not more than a vocal minority and not representative at all of the general public.

The thing is, there is VERY FEW people for who Steam actually played a "positive" role.
The overwhelming majority either don't care or dislike it.
It makes the hypocrital PR crap "we chose Steam for the good of the players !" all the more grating.

 

[The_J]

Civ4 Complete Edition - 75% off - $10usd

Not to mention again: 75% off from the regular steam price.
Here in germany you can get complete at amazon for 11€.

 

[Akkon888]

Now we have a guess of (5 + 7 + 32 =) 44 persons which will probably not or not buy the game, and steam is at e last making is less likely to them or is the reason for the decision. So the guess would be a bit over 28 % (44/154 = 0.2857)

About all of these percents, there should be a margin of error according to the sample size, which can be found with 1/sqroot(n). In this case, n=150 (the sample size) so the margin of error should be around 8.16%. So, about 20%-36% of people in this forum would not purchase Civ5. This number could have been altered by lying, double voting, etc., but if all of the votes here are genuine, roughly 20-36% of people in the forum would not buy Civ5.

 

[Senethro]

Its not even the people in this forum, its the people who read this forum who are worried enough about Steam to click the thread. Thats a form of self-selection.

 

[The_Coyote]

@ eireksten
This is at least my definition of at random. If there wouldn´t be the same participation probability for every object of interest to the sample, it wouldn´t be longer a real random sample.

@ Akkon888
I had my reason not to provide a confidence interval for the probability (and laziness wasn´t the most important one). But if someone don´t really care about possible problems and assumes that the underlying problem has a binomial distribution, than he/she could simply use the binomial quantil function to compute the confidence interval (or even use the gaussian approximation). And btw, i miss your confidence level.

@ "only in this forum usable"
I wouldn´t consider this as fact or assured.

Most likely the forum members can´t be considered as a real random sample of the entire civ5 customer base, but so far i haven´t seen a reason that this potential difference causes a different answer behaviour or in other words: Where is the dependency between the selection criterion to be a member of the forum (and participate at the poll) and the answer behaviour to the question.

As a quick example, if there will be no difference in the answer to a certain question between males and females (or if you don´t like gender examples: height, weight, etc), there exists no reason to expect that there can be a bias in the figures solely because the fact that only 20% of the asked people were females.

To provide an example for a reason, the population here could be younger/older than the civ5 regular customers (i don´t know) and looking at the poll "age and steam reluctancy" there are some signs for an age / attitude toward steam dependency.

As long as there is no dependency there is no real reason not to use the data. As long there is no serious dependency there is no real reason not to use the figures as indication for the customer behaviour. I think that there are dependencys but honestly i have no idea how serious they are (and i even see potential implication which would affect the result in both ways [but than again we would have one time more only assumptions and no longer facts])

 

[The Rook]

Its not even the people in this forum, its the people who read this forum who are worried enough about Steam to click the thread. Thats a form of self-selection.

An interesting speculation.

Alternatively, I would suggest that many people who dislike intrusive software will have abandoned the civ5 forums the moment they discovered the game is dependent on Steam and internet connections, thus leading to a pro-Steam bias in recent polls. So inevitably we are left with a very small, vocal minority who echo the views of many lost players/consumers. Personally I rarely bother to check these forums now I know I won't buy the game.

Most likely the forum members can´t be considered as a real random sample of the entire civ5 customer base, but so far i haven´t seen a reason that this potential difference causes a different answer behaviour or in other words: Where is the dependency between the selection criterion to be a member of the forum (and participate at the poll) and the answer behaviour to the question.

Unfortunately I suspect the notion of Steam and DRM will be lost on the majority of potential civers. Most people will buy the game, autorun the cd, follow the instructions, and play. The average computer user is a slave to their pc these days, all the technical stuff is done automatically for them, so they only learn the bare minimum they need to know. Ignorance is bliss.