Farm Boy
I hope you dance
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2010
- Messages
- 28,269
3 just isn't true. People overrate the short-term damage radius of nuclear arms in reality.
This is correct. Realistically the main advantage of a large strategic nuclear deterrent is not in its counter-force(anti-military) capacity but its counter-value(civilian infrastructure) capacity. The goal is not to devastate every square mile of the target, but instead to destroy any major populations centers as well as industrial and agricultural capacity. You would not target 5 random fields in Nebraska with a nuke, but you might hit a large enough grain elevator or a town with a nice hospital. "Bomb them into the stone age" is the active concept. Estimates are regression to approximately the medieval era is more likely.
Hardened military installations are difficult to destroy even with a nuke. Specific counter-force weapons have been developed in an attempt to be capable of destroying entrenched structures(like opposing ICBM silos) by having the warhead burrow into the ground before detonation, but it is kind of a crapshoot. Even if it were effective, contemporary deterrents rely more heavily on mobile platforms for delivery, such as submarines and bombers. It is more cost and fear effective to focus on killing the nation behind the military. Kind of the reverse of cutting the head off the snake.