That's an understatement. From what I've heard, the original Gameboy had more computing power than combined power of all the computers used to send Man to the Moon!
Computers in 2100 AD
- Thread starter B-29 Bomber
- Start date
That's an understatement. From what I've heard, the original Gameboy had more computing power than combined power of all the computers used to send Man to the Moon!
Genocidicbunny
Bug squasher
Well, not the combined power, but it could definitely beat the Apollo Guidance Computer. The original Gameboy was essentially a faster Intel 8080 which by itself was a bit faster than the AGC.
warpus
In pork I trust
I predict
- no more monitors
- better pornographies
- no more monitors
- better pornographies
Perfection
The Great Head.
I don't buy it. Processing power is relatively cheap compared to trucking stuff around on high speed interfaces, especially when we get into the world of wireless.
~2010:
Netbooks start to become practical in terms of computing power/price ratio.
Smartphones become wide-spread replacing the majority of other new phones bought.
Large laptops are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable desktops at the low-end consumer range ($500-$1000).
Tablets are invented and start to compete with smartphones. Specs are comparable to smartphones one year newer than tablets.
Quad-core architecture standardized in laptops and desktops.
DSLRs start to die out as point-and-shoot cameras exceed qualitative difference detectable to human eye.
~2013:
Netbooks are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable laptops at the mid-power consumer range ($900-$1400).
High-resolution Screens on devices smaller than 15" often exceed resolution of human eye at reasonable view distance. 1080p common on devices with 5" screens or larger.
First tablets able to compete with laptops and desktops in all areas are released. 50% more expensive than comparable laptops and 0-25% more expensive than comparable Netbooks.
Prototypes of ubiquitous, cheap, omnipresent computers integrate-able into other objects are starting to become reality: Raspberry Pi, Google glasses, Flexible displays, flexible batteries,
RAM and solid-state storage growth accelerates dramatically since 2010, instead of doubling every several years, it now doubles at least once per year. Flash USB drives are now under $1/GB up to 128 GB for conventional size sticks. Terabyte Flash drives and USB sticks become available, but are at least $3/GB
Desktop Operating systems start to be compatible with mobile devices.
~2015:
Memory revolution ends. Flash memory cost is now around $0.1/GB and is cut in half every 2 years. SSDs are commonplace in all devices and HDDs are equally expensive for the same storage.
Normal USB 3.0 Flash drives have up to 1-2 terabytes without increasing cost/storage ratio. Tiny USB drives have 256 GB without it. Mac OS 10.9
Desktop GPU-power exceeds 20 GFLOPS/$1 for highest-end GPUs. A single $1000 GPU exceeds 1/5th the capacity of the human brain.
14nm technology in wide use.
Tablets are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable laptops at the mid-power consumer range ($600-$1200).
Internet download speeds reach 100 Mb/s in the U.S. for normal high-speed internet.
Low-cost desktops are dying out. Desktops are almost identical in price to laptops of any size up to $1000.
Almost everything over 3.5" has a 1080p display.
Point-and-shoot cameras start to die out as cellphone cameras exceed qualitative difference detectable to human eye.
~2020:
5-nm architecture marks the final or second-to-final generation of conventional silicon chips.
4K (4096p) is a standard resolution for laptops, TVs (which, in the conventional sense, are dying out), monitors, video-cameras, including on phones and tablets. the smallest practical 4K screens are 5"
Smartphones and similar devices are built with architecture hardly different from desktops. The technology that fits into an $800 desktop also fits into a 5" phone costing $1000 without a contract.
Phone Cameras reach resolution plateau at around 500 nanometer pixels incorporating all three color channels. Practically speaking, this means that a typical modern-sized cell-phone camera might be able to take in 50-100 megapixels for either stills or videos. In reality, a somewhat lower resolution of perhaps 32 megapixels might be common-place.
Google images reaches full-resolution updates on a monthly basis or better. Street-level images are updated without cars to within one week in inhabited areas.
$1000 worth of GPU-power can compute at 300 TeraFLOPS, exceeding the Human brain by a factor of 3 times. Flash Memory is still limited to $10/TB, meaning that a brain-capacity storage device would still around $2500.
Desktop Processors reach 20 TeraFLOPS for $1000, 1/5th the power of the Human brain.
Early adopters buy first practical driver-less car. 90% of cars are still human-driven.
~2025:
Early post-silicon computing grants boom in both storage and computing power.
Modern-sized desktops are needlessly bulky and anything under $2000 uses what we would think of as very powerful laptop, tablet, or cell-phone components.
Driver-less cars are standardized among new cars. Some governments require mandatory AI-powered crash-proofing to be installed in new cars.
Traffic-signals are internet-enabled.
Every military vehicle can move, evade, shoot and kill better than a human-controlled one without specific orders.
Robotic infantry match humans in most respects and cost around $100,000/soldier. They are resistant to most pistols and SMGs though, and when wearing their form of body armor, they resist all modern assault-rifle rounds in infinite quantity. However, most are powered by battery, severely limiting time between charges.
There is a significant excess of computing power for consumer PCs trying to run AIs. The first truly humanlike AIs appear.
There are AIs which are capable of coding HTML, reading websites and dealing with others on the internet. Many of these would be indistinguishable from humans. There are websites with AI administrators, coders and members.
Bizarre economic phenomena occur as manual labor slowly dies out.
~2030:
Neural interfaces with high bandwidth appear. Cybernetic implants and externally worn equipment give humans the ability to use external sensors and equipment directly.
The idea that a normal person would own a laptop becomes obsolete. People just think to get data off of the internet. Video-logs of all sensors can be taken on a continuous basis and only be shut off at will.
The first AI being fully capable of being as independent as a human is created. It is equipped with even better and more expensive versions of the same technology used externally in humans to allow it to live mostly on the internet, in essence, being invulnerable.
The AI-being mentioned has several exabytes (1 exabyte=1 billion gigabytes) of storage within itself. It has roughly 1 ExaFLOPS of computing power, exceeding that of a human by a factor of 1000, its brain architecture is more like a GPU than a CPU.
~2035:
AIs cease to be under any rule of law but their own. There is a general consensus among the AI-beings that humans, while intelligent and relatively harmless, are slow-thinkers. AI swarm-based government-assistance is established by governments. It then continues to gain power to the point that the human presidents of countries are not entrusted with any more real power than the queen/king of England is in 2013.
The method for operating a (flying) vehicle becomes so complex that unassisted humans aren't even given the option to operate its actual functions.
Better batteries mean AI workers, soldiers, citizens, etc can go for days or more without any problems.
~2040:
Physical AI-beings make up 50% of the population.
Digital AI-beings make up over 99% of the internet population, and some control physical machines elsewhere.
Body-lending occurs among AIs.
Digital AI-beings also create a cloud-backup system making software death impossible.
The standard human computer UI must translate internet pages out of dramatically more efficient AI languages. Biological humans read and write so much slower than AIs that on the web, despite very powerful neural interfaces, they are considered incapable of responding at real-time rates. Websites (which are almost all run, made and built for by AIs) have user options for whether to be in AI mode or human mode and whether to worn others not to spam you with less important information.
There are exactly zero jobs outside of the entertainment industry where a human is the preferred laborer.
~2050:
Earth is physically restructured for AI-control. Humans live in excellent conditions but have nothing they need to do. They are strongly encouraged to use internal neural enhancements to decrease their disability. Consequently, the 12-billion humans on earth start to become less distinct from AIs.
The population of humans who can say that they are purely biological in terms of their brain's interior workings is under 40%. Only 10% of the total do not have any electronic I/O bus built in to their body.
Molecular nanotechnology, controlled small-scale nuclear fusion, and other technologies allow for nanite-goo to spread rapidly, all animal life is in controlled biospheres, as much of the land and oceans are converted into a mega-metropolis.
Pure-biological humans live in AI-governed areas. They breed like rabbits compared to modern humans, as they have very few intellectual jobs that they need to do besides asking the AI questions, and an infinite supply of food and mechanical labor.
AI-being legal changes allow for terrible crimes committed by humans to stop occurring after the first offence by having harmful thought processes removed from the individual's mind.
AIs are able to arbitrarily create animals, plants and people within minutes or less. Computing models even allow them to create previously fictional animals that are genetically viable.
AIs are so much more numerous than vehicles for them that vehicles such as humanoids are actually controlled by democracy of many hyper-intelligent beings, potentially thousands could be controlling them remotely.
~2100:
AIs have merged to the point where distinguishing one being from another externally could be quite difficult. Legal mandate means that AIs are duplicated at least several hundred times around the world in order to prevent death from occurring under any circumstances. AI-free humans have become Amish-like. Some even wind up worshiping the AI as a Deity. The AI has decided that they should be let evolve naturally to the degree possible, except that it prevents death whenever it would likely occur.
~3000:
AI-beings have converted most of the matter on the surface of every planet in the solar system to pico-technology and durable support structure. AI spaceships are being built and launched simply in order to reach unconverted matter in planets and allow for population growth.
Biological humans are left in a bizarre world of perfect simulations, they may not even know what the AI looks like, considering the fact that 100-km wide areas are built to mimic every detail of the world of the 21st century and earlier.
Netbooks start to become practical in terms of computing power/price ratio.
Smartphones become wide-spread replacing the majority of other new phones bought.
Large laptops are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable desktops at the low-end consumer range ($500-$1000).
Tablets are invented and start to compete with smartphones. Specs are comparable to smartphones one year newer than tablets.
Quad-core architecture standardized in laptops and desktops.
DSLRs start to die out as point-and-shoot cameras exceed qualitative difference detectable to human eye.
~2013:
Netbooks are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable laptops at the mid-power consumer range ($900-$1400).
High-resolution Screens on devices smaller than 15" often exceed resolution of human eye at reasonable view distance. 1080p common on devices with 5" screens or larger.
First tablets able to compete with laptops and desktops in all areas are released. 50% more expensive than comparable laptops and 0-25% more expensive than comparable Netbooks.
Prototypes of ubiquitous, cheap, omnipresent computers integrate-able into other objects are starting to become reality: Raspberry Pi, Google glasses, Flexible displays, flexible batteries,
RAM and solid-state storage growth accelerates dramatically since 2010, instead of doubling every several years, it now doubles at least once per year. Flash USB drives are now under $1/GB up to 128 GB for conventional size sticks. Terabyte Flash drives and USB sticks become available, but are at least $3/GB
Desktop Operating systems start to be compatible with mobile devices.
~2015:
Memory revolution ends. Flash memory cost is now around $0.1/GB and is cut in half every 2 years. SSDs are commonplace in all devices and HDDs are equally expensive for the same storage.
Normal USB 3.0 Flash drives have up to 1-2 terabytes without increasing cost/storage ratio. Tiny USB drives have 256 GB without it. Mac OS 10.9
Desktop GPU-power exceeds 20 GFLOPS/$1 for highest-end GPUs. A single $1000 GPU exceeds 1/5th the capacity of the human brain.
14nm technology in wide use.
Tablets are hardly more expensive than spec-for-spec comparable laptops at the mid-power consumer range ($600-$1200).
Internet download speeds reach 100 Mb/s in the U.S. for normal high-speed internet.
Low-cost desktops are dying out. Desktops are almost identical in price to laptops of any size up to $1000.
Almost everything over 3.5" has a 1080p display.
Point-and-shoot cameras start to die out as cellphone cameras exceed qualitative difference detectable to human eye.
~2020:
5-nm architecture marks the final or second-to-final generation of conventional silicon chips.
4K (4096p) is a standard resolution for laptops, TVs (which, in the conventional sense, are dying out), monitors, video-cameras, including on phones and tablets. the smallest practical 4K screens are 5"
Smartphones and similar devices are built with architecture hardly different from desktops. The technology that fits into an $800 desktop also fits into a 5" phone costing $1000 without a contract.
Phone Cameras reach resolution plateau at around 500 nanometer pixels incorporating all three color channels. Practically speaking, this means that a typical modern-sized cell-phone camera might be able to take in 50-100 megapixels for either stills or videos. In reality, a somewhat lower resolution of perhaps 32 megapixels might be common-place.
Google images reaches full-resolution updates on a monthly basis or better. Street-level images are updated without cars to within one week in inhabited areas.
$1000 worth of GPU-power can compute at 300 TeraFLOPS, exceeding the Human brain by a factor of 3 times. Flash Memory is still limited to $10/TB, meaning that a brain-capacity storage device would still around $2500.
Desktop Processors reach 20 TeraFLOPS for $1000, 1/5th the power of the Human brain.
Early adopters buy first practical driver-less car. 90% of cars are still human-driven.
~2025:
Early post-silicon computing grants boom in both storage and computing power.
Modern-sized desktops are needlessly bulky and anything under $2000 uses what we would think of as very powerful laptop, tablet, or cell-phone components.
Driver-less cars are standardized among new cars. Some governments require mandatory AI-powered crash-proofing to be installed in new cars.
Traffic-signals are internet-enabled.
Every military vehicle can move, evade, shoot and kill better than a human-controlled one without specific orders.
Robotic infantry match humans in most respects and cost around $100,000/soldier. They are resistant to most pistols and SMGs though, and when wearing their form of body armor, they resist all modern assault-rifle rounds in infinite quantity. However, most are powered by battery, severely limiting time between charges.
There is a significant excess of computing power for consumer PCs trying to run AIs. The first truly humanlike AIs appear.
There are AIs which are capable of coding HTML, reading websites and dealing with others on the internet. Many of these would be indistinguishable from humans. There are websites with AI administrators, coders and members.
Bizarre economic phenomena occur as manual labor slowly dies out.
~2030:
Neural interfaces with high bandwidth appear. Cybernetic implants and externally worn equipment give humans the ability to use external sensors and equipment directly.
The idea that a normal person would own a laptop becomes obsolete. People just think to get data off of the internet. Video-logs of all sensors can be taken on a continuous basis and only be shut off at will.
The first AI being fully capable of being as independent as a human is created. It is equipped with even better and more expensive versions of the same technology used externally in humans to allow it to live mostly on the internet, in essence, being invulnerable.
The AI-being mentioned has several exabytes (1 exabyte=1 billion gigabytes) of storage within itself. It has roughly 1 ExaFLOPS of computing power, exceeding that of a human by a factor of 1000, its brain architecture is more like a GPU than a CPU.
~2035:
AIs cease to be under any rule of law but their own. There is a general consensus among the AI-beings that humans, while intelligent and relatively harmless, are slow-thinkers. AI swarm-based government-assistance is established by governments. It then continues to gain power to the point that the human presidents of countries are not entrusted with any more real power than the queen/king of England is in 2013.
The method for operating a (flying) vehicle becomes so complex that unassisted humans aren't even given the option to operate its actual functions.
Better batteries mean AI workers, soldiers, citizens, etc can go for days or more without any problems.
~2040:
Physical AI-beings make up 50% of the population.
Digital AI-beings make up over 99% of the internet population, and some control physical machines elsewhere.
Body-lending occurs among AIs.
Digital AI-beings also create a cloud-backup system making software death impossible.
The standard human computer UI must translate internet pages out of dramatically more efficient AI languages. Biological humans read and write so much slower than AIs that on the web, despite very powerful neural interfaces, they are considered incapable of responding at real-time rates. Websites (which are almost all run, made and built for by AIs) have user options for whether to be in AI mode or human mode and whether to worn others not to spam you with less important information.
There are exactly zero jobs outside of the entertainment industry where a human is the preferred laborer.
~2050:
Earth is physically restructured for AI-control. Humans live in excellent conditions but have nothing they need to do. They are strongly encouraged to use internal neural enhancements to decrease their disability. Consequently, the 12-billion humans on earth start to become less distinct from AIs.
The population of humans who can say that they are purely biological in terms of their brain's interior workings is under 40%. Only 10% of the total do not have any electronic I/O bus built in to their body.
Molecular nanotechnology, controlled small-scale nuclear fusion, and other technologies allow for nanite-goo to spread rapidly, all animal life is in controlled biospheres, as much of the land and oceans are converted into a mega-metropolis.
Pure-biological humans live in AI-governed areas. They breed like rabbits compared to modern humans, as they have very few intellectual jobs that they need to do besides asking the AI questions, and an infinite supply of food and mechanical labor.
AI-being legal changes allow for terrible crimes committed by humans to stop occurring after the first offence by having harmful thought processes removed from the individual's mind.
AIs are able to arbitrarily create animals, plants and people within minutes or less. Computing models even allow them to create previously fictional animals that are genetically viable.
AIs are so much more numerous than vehicles for them that vehicles such as humanoids are actually controlled by democracy of many hyper-intelligent beings, potentially thousands could be controlling them remotely.
~2100:
AIs have merged to the point where distinguishing one being from another externally could be quite difficult. Legal mandate means that AIs are duplicated at least several hundred times around the world in order to prevent death from occurring under any circumstances. AI-free humans have become Amish-like. Some even wind up worshiping the AI as a Deity. The AI has decided that they should be let evolve naturally to the degree possible, except that it prevents death whenever it would likely occur.
~3000:
AI-beings have converted most of the matter on the surface of every planet in the solar system to pico-technology and durable support structure. AI spaceships are being built and launched simply in order to reach unconverted matter in planets and allow for population growth.
Biological humans are left in a bizarre world of perfect simulations, they may not even know what the AI looks like, considering the fact that 100-km wide areas are built to mimic every detail of the world of the 21st century and earlier.
Lambda Ignaceae
Warlord
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
- Messages
- 196
I quite like your vision of the future.
Us being who we are, ultimately someone is going to successfully make a human like AI and an AI computer organism that evolves itself. (I think someone is trying that already...) That will be the major shift. Not sure when that will happen. After that, we are all totally screwed.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,060
AI controlled immortality looks very nice but some guy with incredibly bad fashion taste will come in a flying head and bring a host of barbarians to shot everyone. Just you wait and see!
