Teching IW early usually isn't much of a good idea. I play on higher levels (immortal or deity) and usually barb axes are no issue as the whole world is covered in cities. If there is still space for barbs to spawn tough, fogbust.
If there's no horse/copper near your capital to get with the second city, tech archery.
If there's no horse/copper near your capital to get with the second city, tech archery.