Firstly, the Song are in a much better geographical and technological position to colonize.
By the end of the first series of humiliations inflicted upon Song by the Jin, the Jin essentially hit a brick wall and were thwarted by the Song a number of times thereafter.
Secondly, Eastern Europe's relative sluggishness when compared to Western Europe is should not and can not be attributed to the Mongol invasions.
They were hardly a footnote when compared to the Crimean Tatar raids across Eastern European lands much later on.
That was the real reason why they were setback in development.
It is safe to say they will end up developing better with the absence of powerful nomadic peoples in the first place,
but the Italian thing seems kind of a stretch to me.
Wasn't the Crimean Khanate an offshoot of the Turkic Mongol Khanates? Without Genghis Khan, it could be argued the Mongols and Tatars would have continued their own wars within Asia for many years, styming their own development, and thus the Crimean Tatars would have been raiding east rather than west. Equally they could have gotten even more powerful and launched even stronger raids, but then all you end up with is the Tatars replacing the Mongols, so it isn't really that much of an alternate history.
I agree the Italian thing is a stretch, but I was thinking of this more as a UHV for the Hungarian and Polish nations in the alternate history. France has to take 40% of Europe, HRE has to control Rome, and Prussia has to control Italy, so in this history I would say Poland and Hungary should have a similar goal, focused on Europe or Rome, to reflect their greater development without unified nomadic tribes to attack them.
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