First things first:
Great post Pe Ell
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Now some answers and facts:
@ Scarredroman:
Bren has already reached rifles at the end of the last turnset, because I played 3 turns more after the end of the war... ...I wanted to exchange rifles for steel with Bren, but then only to find out that the ***** doesn´t want to trade with DD anymore.
So Alex will go for DD´s cities for sure, because they are simply worse defended then Bren´s
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@ SevenSpirits:
Military techs increase your power rating quite drastically, so I would prefere to get rifling first, then revolt to nationalism to reduce the risk of Alex jumping at DD during the revolution a little
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@ Premier Valle:
Alex is racing towards Infantry... ...he already has Scientific Methods + Rifling and maybe even Steem Power. If he reaches Infantry before DD manages to take out his main army somehow it´s game over. His lands are simply too good and he techs to fast for DD to keep up...
Besides, I think that Alex will jump on DD anyways within the next 10 turns, so in my opinion it´s better to be the one to declare and move troops first (even if you only defend for the first turns).
Additionally, there is the risko of Bren breaking loose every single turn, so each turn waiting increases this problem greatly (once the war has started, I don´t think he will break loose, because he will be busy fighting for his life)
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@ bestbrian:
The 10 turns no war for resource deals only count, if the AI is offering it by himself.
Bren has spare units in 3 cities, all upgraded to rifles already, and all his remaining 9 cities are defended with 3 rifles each. He has altogether about 25 spare rifles, 3 knights (he will upgrade to cav pretty soon, because DD gifted him mil.trad) and 6-8 trebs/catas, so your and scarredroman´s estimations about him having about 30 - 40 units left were pretty good
I don´t like easy questions
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@ Pe Ell:
Again, great post...
Yup, Alex is on the infantry clock.
Defense first might be the only way to survive this war, backed by massive drafting (this is a huge map, so DD might be able to draft 5 or 6 units every turn), which might just be enough to hold back Alex (loosing maybe one of the newly captured Celt cities which could be retaken later, with the help of Bren)
DD is still waiting for the Great Priest to build the Hindu Shrine (about 20 turns more)
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@ The Menace:
Any adivce is good advice, thanks for you participation
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@ Squarg:
I fully agree with you about defeding first, but I fear that DD might not be able to defend for 4 turns without the help of drafted rifles if Alex is jumping in at turn 1 of the revolution... ...the war might be over already after 4 turns of revolution and no production (Alex has an army of about 50+ rifles, 15+ cav, some grens and 15+ trebs, and most of it is already moved or moving towards the English border)
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@ ALL:
A quick overview over DD´s army at 950 AD:
22 cavalry (about 15 of them are higly promoted)
9 LB´s
3 Axes
3 Warriors
9 Trebuchets (and the money to upgrade 6 of them right away to cannons)
2 cannons (within the 4 turns remaining up to the revolution for nationalism, 5-6 more will be produced + whipped)
9 grens
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Selling some older tech oversea might bring enough money to upgrade the remaining 3 trebs also to cannons, so DD will have about 15 cannons ready soon. And selling Economics to Alex might even spill in the cash to upgrade the lbows to redcoats (Alex has about 700 gold, and it´s increasing by 50 gold each turn)... ...should be enough for defending during the two turn revolution, even if Alex is jumping in right away... ...then backed by drafting, the war might be brought to Greek lands within the next 5-6 turns.
Main problem is still the chance of Alex reaching Infantry anytime soon... ...this would mean instant death
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EDIT:
I just had another idea:
How about selling Economics to Alex one turn before declaring, then bribing him to revolt to Free Market the turn DD declares, to leave him in revolt???
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EDIT2:
Forget about that... ...DD isn´t running Free Market, so he can´t bribe Alex into it