Doughnut Files Term 7 - 9

[classical_hero]

I did this by looking at the saves. Turn 152 the amount taken was 15 turns @ 132 when I took off all scientists. Turn 153 it is 15 @135. Turn 154 it is 15 @134. Turn 155 is 12 @137. So it appears that you are correct. Next turn, show what Metalurgy would cost us at 20% science with no scientist, just for comparision.

EIDT. Chamnix do not send that letter to KISS because I believe that Doughnuts and KISS have been playing us all along. We do not want either team to think that we know about this little ruse.

 

[fe3333au]

I have sent this letter

Title ... Please Explain !!!

Dear Nuts

I are now very confused with conflicting information ... on one hand we have received information that Metallurgy will be available between 3 and 4 turns and then suddenly it is being sent THIS Turn ... please explain !!!

Send to g-mail as I am unavailable this evening and most of next day.

MIA

sent to g-mail, killer and robi.

As you can see I have made no reference to our suspicions ... but under the circumstances it would be expected that we send a note to clarify the situation before sending any more information/technology etc.


I also say lets hold the game until we receive a reply ... I also agree that if they have double crossed us than it will be prudent to send a message to KISS so that we can at least try to combine an assult against Nuts.

If KISS still have an honour system in place they should agree ... if not then we will at least know for sure that it is 2 vs. 1 and that KISS are all too aware of of our agreement with the Nuts (and everything else we have mentioning).

And I think that no more information should be revealed in chat ... we just want answers !!!!

 

[gbno1fan]

While I think we definitely want to talk to KISS about Dnut's behavior if we really think there is a problem at hand, I do not think a 2 vs 1 war would be in our interests.

KISS would then be in position to win a domination victory. If they occupy the former TNT lands, and we help them into Dnut territory, we are in essence just helping them win.

However, if we can work out a deal where they are not allowed to settle south of the jungle on the other continent, it may be a viable path to take.

 

[Chamnix]

Their response is likely to be that KISS completed it so the price dropped. The timing doesn't quite add up, but I'm not sure what you expect to get out of asking Dnuts that.

I'm not a fan of holding the game, especially considering that a couple teams exceed their 24 hours somewhat regularly , and the game is crawling as it is. As I mentioned, we cannot prove Dnuts broke our deal, so I think we stick to our half of the bargain and complete the trade - we just won't deal with them in the future and try to dissuade KISS from dealing either. Regardless, even if we knew Physics was going to end up in KISS hands, I think we still make the Physics for Metallurgy trade - we are just running out of time to get the techs we want.

Finally, I don't think attacking Dnuts is any better an option than it was before this fiasco. KISS still stands to gain more from a joint assault than we do. As tempting as it is to punish Dnuts for their lies, I still want to win the game, and I think our best path to do that is by attacking KISS.

 

[classical_hero]

The problem is that i do not think that it will be an option of whether we need Doughnuts, because KISS and Doughnuts are in an alliance with each other and thus they will attack us with KISS.

 

[Chamnix]

I don't think Dnuts and KISS are allied. The techs we are getting from Dnuts are not techs that KISS would want us to have. I think Dnuts are betraying each of us equally.

Dnuts may join with KISS in attacking us, but I think they will only do that if we are winning. They will probably help the weaker one hold off the stronger as long as possible.

 

[classical_hero]

Lets hope you are right. We will see when we declare war with KISS and if they join in with the attack.

Perhaps they have been leading us on to believe that they are not Allied with KISS. Just a thought, so I believe we must plan for this eventuallity, just in case.

 

[fe3333au]

Either way ... I doubt if this will alter our military builds ... I guess more artillery for coastal protection would not go astray.

They sure are taking their time responding though.

Looks like TNT's accidental holding up of the game is in our favour.

 

[Chamnix]

Hmm - KISS does not have Banking or Astronomy. Maybe I'm just paranoid

 

[classical_hero]

Maybe you are paranoid. It could have been that KISS have independantly been researching it and it was just a coincidence.

 

[Chamnix]

PM received from killercane:

When do you guys expect to have ToG or Magnetism for trade for MT? We are 4 turns away from MT and would like to work on our timeline.

KC

 

[fe3333au]

Gee I am having big problems with the new Nut regime ... doesn't address our questions direct or even mention it

Robi replied ...

My bad, i loaded the wrong save

Anyway there you have it ... we should trade the least offensive technology and with the least beaker value.

 

[General_W]

What a rollercoaster ride reading this thread!!

From the looking glass thread, it looks like KISS's last technology breakthrough was to acquire Chemistry on turn 150. So it seems pretty natural that KISS would get Metallurgy on turn 156. – although that's a bit faster than we were expecting them to be able to do.

If I'm reading the Looking Glass thread correctly, the Dnuts got Chemistry from us for 720 gold on turn 147. – that's a full 9 turns for them to come up with Metal on their own.

So while the timing does seem suspicious, I think it's totally plausible that both teams got the tech at the same time. Besides, it's unlike KISS to give a key tech for a promise of some future technology. Since KISS doesn’t show Astronomy or Banking – it seems most plausible to assume that we've just observed a freak occurrence… not double dealing.

However – This is still a good reminder that the Dnuts should not be trusted too far… we must keep a close eye on them (and on the rate at which KISS acquires new technology – to watch for anomalies)

Fe has asked about what to trade for Military Tradition. I think this is more of a Foreign Question – so I'll just respond here.

Anyway – Military Tradition is worth 1920 beakers -monopoly.
For reference, here are our options:

Magnetism: 2040
Theory of Gravity: 2040
Chivalry: (840)

Magnetism is the obvious swap. If it were to fall into KISS's hands, I see no dramatic irreversible harm – besides putting them that much closer to the IA. However – without Astronomy, KISS is still missing 2 perquisites to even get Magnetism – so this is a pretty remote fear, in my book.

I'd offer a direct swap of Magnetism for Military Tradition as soon as the Nuts can get M.T.

 

[fe3333au]

I agree with trading Magnetism ... as they are not interested in Chivalry and it is a fair swap as well.

If we want cash we could trade Theory of Gravity though.

 

[Chamnix]

I think Magnetism is also 2040 beakers.

If we are trading for Military Tradition (and I guess we should - Robi's "explanation" is believable), then it doesn't matter much to me which tech we give in return. It would be nice to get gold to equalize the beakers, but I don't think it's a deal-breaker if they refuse to give gold.

 

[General_W]

Thanks Chamnix - my bad on the Magnetism cost.
It is indeed 2040 beakers. (I've now edited above)

I'd still prefer to swap Mag. over ToG - just to avoid any nasty suprises with Newton's University. Our Golden Age depends on nothing going wrong with that.

Perhaps we can ask for the 60 gold in difference in cost? But I wouldn't make a big deal out of it. We owe the Nuts a good deal after the ridiculous ammount they paid us for banking.

I'd ask for, say 50 gold, and then if they balk, just drop it and point out how giving and generous we are

 

[fe3333au]

Sent this to their g-mail

Title ... Tech Trade

Dear Nuts

We would like to offer Magnetism (2040) for Military Tradition (1920) ... Trading in 4 turns is excellent to our time frame so send as soon as you have discovered it.

However since the beaker cost is disproportionate please advise on your thoughts as to a fair gold amount you feel will even the deal.

Sincerely MIA

I prefer to let them come up with a gold value, they may pay more and we can always haggle if it is insufficient.

 

[fe3333au]

Turn 158 ... what more proof do we need

... Nuts have entered into a Right of Passage with KISS
... KISS have Astronomy

What do we do
... let on and then not get Military Tradition ??
... play dumb and ignore ??
... ask for urgent please explain ??
... talk to KISS ??

 

[Black_Hole]

Duh, now its obvious why we didn't see this last turn. DNuts likely sent astronomy with accept, so KISS didn't actually get it until their turn, which was after we looked at save...

I think they are in on this together, if they trust each other enough to have a ROP, then they really know eachothers intentions...

 

[Chamnix]

Let's start with the facts:

Turn 154: Metallurgy was unknown.
Turn 155: Metallurgy was known by one civ.
Turn 156: Metallurgy was known by both Dnuts and KISS.

Turn 156: KISS did not have Astronomy.
Turn 157: KISS has Astronomy.

KISS learned Metallurgy either turn 155 or turn 156 and Astronomy on 157. Obviously they did not research both themselves. It is just possible they researched one and stole the other from each us or Dnuts, but I think that is highly unlikely. I have never known anyone to research and save money for stealing at the same time. Also, stealing Astronomy safely would cost more than researching it themselves (and still have a chance of failure), and stealing carefully would be about the same price as self-research (with a significant chance of failure). It just doesn't make any sense for KISS to steal a tech right now.

Therefore, it seems very probable that Dnuts gave KISS Astronomy. Does the timeline make sense? KISS completes Metallurgy on their 154. They apparently sent it with accept to Nuts on KISS' turn 155. Nuts sent Astronomy with accept on their turn 156, and KISS accepts it on their 156 (X-posted with Black Hole). That makes sense to me. The convos with Robi just serve as additional circumstantial evidence.

So it seems reasonable certain that Dnuts gave Astronomy to KISS in direct violation of our written agreement (section 2.6).

What is KISS' role in all this? Are they Dnuts' accomplices or are they co-dupes with MIA? I'm not sure what KISS gains by letting Nuts trade us techs. Let's suppose KISS is aware of the whole situation. KISS researches Metallurgy, they trade it to Dnuts for Astronomy. Why would KISS let (or encourage) Dnuts to trade Metallurgy to MIA for Physics? KISS researches Metallurgy and picks up Astronomy. MIA researches Physics and picks up Metallurgy. Dnuts research nothing and pick up Metallurgy and Physics. Why would KISS agree to that? The only way I could possibly see it making sense is if KISS gets Physics thrown in also, and even then, it is a very poor decision on their part. KISS would be gaining on MIA, but creating a monster in the Nuts. It wouldn't be the first bad decision this game by KISS, but that is horribly bad.

I think it is still more likely that KISS is being duped as well, but the Right of Passage makes no sense to me in any case. Even if KISS and Nuts were allied, why would they sign an RoP? They don't need one to attack TNT. I am absolutely baffled about why they would do that. Advertise their alliance to us? I just don't get it.

I think our next step is still to talk to KISS. Call me naive, but I still do not think KISS will break a written agreement. Tell them what's going on with the Nuts and see how they react. I think we can forgo a Military Tradition trade with the Nuts if we can get KISS to agree to no further Nut tech trades.

If KISS is not aligned with Nuts, then telling KISS the situation and getting a no-trade agreement is the best solution.

If KISS is aligned with Nuts, then sending them a note will make their alliance aware of our suspicions, but if KISS denies the alliance, then we should act like we believe them.

I would not confront Dnuts yet in any case. I think we want to try to figure out KISS' role by talking to KISS first. I would send them something like the note I had written earlier.

Really, if they are truly allied, then I don't think it matters that much if they are aware of our suspicions, but if KISS is being duped by the Nuts also, then we have a lot to gain by making them aware of it.