For Those Keeping Score at Home

This is what a Nobel Prize winning economist has to say about Trump and the markets.

But it is not just Trump’s proposed tax changes that plausibly affect market psychology. The US has never had a president like him. Not only is he an actor, like Ronald Reagan; he is also a motivational writer and speaker, a brand name in real estate, and a tough deal maker. If he ever reveals his financial information, or if his family is able to use his influence as president to improve its bottom line, he might even prove to be successful in business.
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It makes me pretty mad that the right wing is taken to be better at economy when they aren't on any level (except making few richer at expense of many, I guess)
 
Honestly, ACA aside, this is my biggest fear with Der Drumpf. His feel-good MAGA populism will totally devastate the economy.
 
Mouthwash said:
I can't tell whether this is supposed to be an endorsement or criticism.
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you read it wrong then....you are only supposed to read the parts that support your position and ignore the rest
 
Mouthwash said:
I can't tell whether this is supposed to be an endorsement or criticism.
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It was obvious to the rest of us. There are no prominent economists anywhere in the world who think that Trump is anything other than dangerously insane, reckless, and stupid. He has the worst policies on everything in the past 80 years at least.
 
EnglishEdward said:
So what are our predictions for the DJIA when the Donald leaves?
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This is a hard one. :cringe: Trump has promised to roll back financial regulations which will return us to W's economy. He's promised to cut taxes on the rich far more than W ever dreamed. This will bring back W's bubble-burst economy, and so the DJIA will go up-delup-dup and then it'll go down-dittly-down-down. Plus, his massive stimulus infrastructure project at a time of healthy employment will unleash inflation. We're in far a wild ride, but exactly where we will be when is beyond my poor powers of prediction.
 
Zkribbler said:
This is a hard one. :cringe: Trump has promised to roll back financial regulations which will return us to W's economy. He's promised to cut taxes on the rich far more than W ever dreamed. This will bring back W's bubble-burst economy, and so the DJIA will go up-delup-dup and then it'll go down-dittly-down-down. Plus, his massive stimulus infrastructure project at a time of healthy employment will unleash inflation. We're in far a wild ride, but exactly where we will be when is beyond my poor powers of prediction.
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Well, I don't really see his massive stimulus infrastructure project actually happening. It would require congressional democrats voting for it to make up for the austerity even if it kills us wing of the GOP, and as soon as democrats start voting for it the rest of the GOP can't.

Interest rates are going to go up, or at best stay the same. That's a down force. Energy prices are going to go up as the GOP tries to make fossil fuel jobs appear in the American market. That's a down force. Rising international tension pushes portfolios towards liquidity. That's a down force.

I expect that the recreation of the bubble and burst economy is going to be almost immediately reflected in the popping of the stock market bubble.
 
Cutlass said:
It was obvious to the rest of us. There are no prominent economists anywhere in the world who think that Trump is anything other than dangerously insane, reckless, and stupid. He has the worst policies on everything in the past 80 years at least.
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I don't respect the opinions of a "Nobel Prize winning economist" on economics any more than the opinions of a literature professor. Your link sounds so elitist I had to wonder if you were really endorsing it.
 
Mouthwash said:
I don't respect the opinions of a "Nobel Prize winning economist" on economics any more than the opinions of a literature professor. Your link sounds so elitist I had to wonder if you were really endorsing it.
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That's a very 'know nothingish' attitude.
 
Mouthwash said:
I don't respect the opinions of a "Nobel Prize winning economist" on economics any more than the opinions of a literature professor. Your link sounds so elitist I had to wonder if you were really endorsing it.
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Why would you not respect the opinion of an economist on an economics question? I mean, finance is not economics, the a question about the DJIA is a finance question. But it requires an economic theory in order to project a predict four years forward ... so an economist should be passable in such a case.
 
Cutlass said:
That's a very 'know nothingish' attitude.
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Generally yes, but economists are a special case since their field has a very high ideology/evidence ratio. There are too many different and contradictory theories to take every economist at face value.
 
GoodSarmatian said:
Generally yes, but economists are a special case since their field has a very high ideology/evidence ratio. There are too many different and contradictory theories to take every economist at face value.
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Not as much among the mainstream on most issues as you'd think. The problem is more that the radicals, like the so-called 'Austrian School', get public exposure far out of proportion to the extent they are respected by people who have any background in the subject at all. Much less the actual professionals, who are in consensus that the Austrians haven't added anything to the understanding of economics in some 3/4 of a century. And then there are the paid shills at right-wing think tanks, who say whatever it is that they're paid to say. Those are the people that the Republicans mainly listen to. It's not an accident that Trump hasn't been able to get a single widely respected economist to join his administration.
 
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