Future scenario

[Red Threat]

If you want people post in this thread what do you think it will happen in the world during the next 15-25 years (till 2030).

I imagine the following scenario.

- The war on terrorism continues. In Iraq there are finally free elections: a pro-american government (a cohaliton of moderate parties of sunnites, shihites, kurds) is estabilished because of the electoral system, but it has not really the majority of votes. It faces the opposition of the fundamentalist and baathist parties, it becomes a US puppet government. In the Arab countries the anti-american movement grows up. Kerry wins the elections in the US but its policy is not really different than the Bush one.

- In the EU countries there are referendums about the european constitution. In all the countries wins the "Yes"; except in the UK where wins the "No". A new European Union without the UK is founded, it has a greater foreign policy unity and the first steps for a unite army are done. In most of the countries, exspecially France, Italy and Portugal the left wing wins the elections: the new Europe is born social-democratic. But on October 2006 the elections in Germany show the weakness of SPD and the growth of parties like a new PDS, the greens, the FPD. It is estabilished a "mittel" government with CDU/CSU and FPD. But they have not the majority of Bundestag, they need the support in parliament of SPD and greens. Their program is pro-European and liberal, with a special attention on the Welfare.

- "The UK problem". Tony Blair is fired by the queen. Chaos in the country: after the referendum, the tories ask a new electoral system. They get it and win the elections. The US/UK axis becomes stronger. Though the UK is still a EU member, it doesn't use the Euro and hasn't adopted the Constitution. It brings many troubles to the EU government.

- On February 2007 a popular fundamentalist revolution led by the followers of Bin Laden (who is dead for a disease) brings to the downfall of the Saudi regime in Arabia. An islamic fundamentalist government is estabilished. It's aim is to conquer all the little countries of the Arabian peninsula (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrein, eventually Oman and Yemen) in order to get the control of most of the world oil production. Kerry is not able to face this big problem: in the US the republicans want to go on war with this new UAIR (United Arabic Islamic Republic), the Americans don't want because this war requires many costs and many soldiers. Kerry prefers the dialogue system. In a summit in Damascus (April) with the Arabic leaders he is successful: the UAIR government promises that it won't attack.

 

[Red Threat]

- On June the UAIR government changes. A more moderate and less aggressive one is estabilished: the new ideology of the fundamentalist party is pan-islamic. On August the Great Conference of Gidda gives birth to a new political actor of the world scene: all the Arabic countries where a pro-UAIR goverment had taken the power between March and July (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Algeria, Yemen) unite themselves is EU-like organization: the Islamic Union. The first acts of this union are, during the first months of 2008: a) It asks to Israel to leave the Palestinian lands, in order to don't risk a war; b) It adopts an only currency, the Rhab [name is fictional]. c) The most important: following the example of Iran which started to trade oil adopting the Euro currency replacing the US dollar, the Islamic Union starts to trade oil with the Rhab.

- Great economic crisis in the whole world: after the decision of the IU the United States are not any more able to stamp dollars (that were sold to the other countries to let them buy oil) in order to balance their catastrophic trade deficit. The economy collapses: companies failures and great unemployement. It's a new (but different) 1929. Kerry states that "A second 'new deal' is not possible any more because of the great public administration deficit". It's the chaos: there are migrants' and poors' riots in cities like L.A. and Chicago. The middle class fears this situation, and the far right wing try to make a golpe in order to estabilish a nationalist-religious dictatorship and stop the the threat of poors' rebellions. They fail, but in order to save the democratic constitution of America Kerry is forced to create an alliance of Democrats and Republicans.

- The EU faces a smaller economic crisis, because: a) it had not neither a trade deficit nor a public deficit; b) countries like Venezuela and Iran had started to trade oil using the Euro currency. Its main problem is the lack of exports, because of the downfall of consumes in America. In this situation, the new Russian president Vassilij Zakharov, leader of "Novajia Russiskajia" (New Russia), a socially moderate liberal party (in the same time the democracy in Russia had become stronger) meets the European leaders in Kaliningrad (Ex Koenigsberg). A new EU-Russia alliance starts: the EU get the protection of the Russian army and a new market (the Russian one) where to export freely its products; Russia gets a great economic helping. The Russian oil is traded using Euro.

- In the UK there's a second crisis: the axis with the US has failed. The Labour party, led by G. Brown, wins the elections. The UK adopts the Euro and the european constitution.

- On summer (2008) the Olympic games in Peking show to the world the great economic, scientific and industrial power of the Great China.

 

[Red Threat]

- November 2008: elections in the U.S. Because of the situatione these elctions are completely different: there are five (!) candidates. They are: - Kerry (Democrats); - D. Cheney (Republicans); J. Williams (Constitution - far right wing parties); - R. Schneider (greens and social democrats); - Rodrigo Fernandez (people's party) supported by Ispanics, now the greatest ethnic group in the US. The electoral system is changed: the winner will be the one who gets the 50 % +1 af the votes. If nobody reaches this number, there will be a second ballot. A GREAT number of people go to vote (78 % circa). These elections are very special... these are the percentages:

- Williams 5,1 %
- Cheney 42,8 %
- Kerry 28,0 %
- Fernandez 16,9 %
- Schneider 7,2 %

For the second ballot, Kerry knows he will never win without an alliance with Fernandez and Schneider. He wins (53 % against Cheney's 47 %) but now he is forced to rule a completely different country. In the Congress, there is a new left-wing majority (Democrats, Greens, Social-democrats, People's party). This has been the consequence of the political mobilization of many people (blacks, ispanics, poors) that, before the economic crisis, weren't represented in the American politics.

- The first acts of the second Kerry's presidence are: 1) a great and very strict economic reformation. Rich people are greatly taxed, their consumes are decreased, the exports and imports are now re-balanced; the government starts Welfare programs and private enterprise support acts; the economy starts to breath again and unemployement returns on normal levels but the military budget is greatly cut down; 2) a great Middle East conference (January 2010) in Alexandria. The US troops retire from Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, UEA, Qatar. These countries, together with Tunisia, Iran, Marocco, unite themselves to the IU, which is now become more-democratic. Indeed, after the great crisis the anti-US feeling of population decreased and the moderate forces became stronger. In the conference of Alexandria the US obtain more fair rules for the oil trade, and the promise of a new constitution and free elections in the IU. Israel and Palestina become a unite democratic state, with special laws to prohibite racial/religious apartheid between Arabs and Jews and to favour their integration.

- January 2012. Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Turkey and all the Eastern Europe countries join the EU. Russia does too, but with special rules. On february the Islamic union adopts the new constitution and the elections are won by the moderate parties.

- June 2012. EU elections. The left wing wins: the cohalition is obviously led by the P.E.S. (Party of the European Socialism). The new European parliament has more powers. Now there is definitively an only European-Russian army and foreign policy. This is the first parliament of the whole Europe, with more powers than the one elected in 2004 and 2008. In Europe a great number of migrants live now. It's surely fresh blood for a relatively "old" continent.

- October 2012. The last US troops leave Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. It's the end for the American superpower, of its empire, but the "Second New Deal" in the US works very well. A better distributed wealth and a better democratic system are giving to the US a new time of prosperity. the economic and military strenght of US, EU-Russia and of the democratically-reformed China are now circa the same. India follows nearly. On november there are again elections in the US. The winner will be J. Edwards, again with the same winner cohalition of parties of 2008.

- August 2015. That's been a terrible warm summer. Denying that men are destroying the environment is now impossible. All the main countries agrre that it is needed a jioned action to face the threat.

- March 2016. The Great Summit of Bangkog starts. The main superpowers of the world (China, EU-Russia, USA, India, Islamic Union, Brazil) lead the conference, but all the countries take part in it. The UN are reformed, they become now more democratic. Great planetary programs of environmental protection, wealth distribution and disease fighting in the third World countries now start, with the funding of the richest powers. Many countries adopt the EU laws about economy, corporations/laborers legislation, education system. After the Great collapse of 2007 the global capitalism didn't work well in the developed countries any more. These laws are seen as the first step for a European-like democratic socialism.

- 2016-2030. The years of the Great Work. The UN programs seem to work now. Environment, economy, third world's condition are all better now. And the most important thing... there is peace in the world, finally.

A new age of prosperity is about to start in the world.


As you all can understand, i voted the first option in the poll.

 

[BCLG100]

hmm, i'll probably have a better judegment when your two 'reserved' posts are filled in i'm liking the story so far though

 

[~Corsair#01~]

CPA 2004-2008- World continues in it's current way, little happens except the US invade Iran.
2009- Corsair#01 moves to Tasmania and joins theCPA.
2010- Corsair#01 comes to lead the CPA.
2011- All communist parties in the world unite, under the wise leadership of Corsair#01.
2012- European elections bring the EU under Communist rule, under (you guessed it!) Corsair#01.
2013- Religion, Big Brother and programmes about selling houses are banned. The entire casts and production team of "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" are involved in a tragic accident- it is believed they fell down an elavator shaft onto some bullets.
2014- A series of communist revolutions bring all of North America and Africa under Corsair#01's glorious rule.
2015- The world is now communist- the whole world is in a socialist paradise- cuban cigars and cheap vodka for all!
2016- 7858656848- World lives happily forever- Corsair#01 is made immortal and the world's population is made up almost entirely of his clones.

Ah, a happy future.

 

[Red Threat]

the whole world is in a socialist paradise- cuban cigars and cheap vodka for all!

 

[ComradeDavo]

My one big worry is that if the USA does suceed in building SDI, and other countries get/steal the technology, then with the threat of nuclear warfare diminished some countries will warmonger more, as they know that they won't (can't) get nuked.

Example - China and Tawain. China won't go for them at the momment, because of the US. But if they knew the uS could not nuke them, then they might, because they would know that there would be alot of casualities on both sides and that the Americans might not be willing to accept this. Then again this could not happen, i'm just speculating.

 

[~Corsair#01~]

My one big worry is that if the USA does suceed in building SDI, and other countries get/steal the technology, then with the threat of nuclear warfare diminished some countries will warmonger more, as they know that they won't (can't) get nuked.

Example - China and Tawain. China won't go for them at the momment, because of the US. But if they knew the uS could not nuke them, then they might, because they would know that there would be alot of casualities on both sides and that the Americans might not be willing to accept this. Then again this could not happen, i'm just speculating.

I think China could get missile defenses easily enough- it's just they're too expensive, also they only stop 2/3 of nukes. Besides, the US would never in a million years get involved if China invaded Taiwan- they need the Chinese to work for slave wages otherwise their economy will go under.

 

[Aphex_Twin]

The stuff about the UK is exagerated. I doubt Bruxelles leaders really see a future EU without it. And the Queen can't fire Tony Blair.

Also, it's more important to take a look at the negative scenarios, provided of course they are well documented. "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best". Right now the US has to prepare for an eventuality of a failure in Iraq and European leaders for an eventual failure of the EU.

 

[HamaticBabylon]

My friend Red Threat, your scenario is a big fairy tale...not in a million years would the Muslims unite...the Pakistanis, Indians, African Muslims, Arab Muslims are two backward in technology and mind development (even though they have the Quran!). Also every race, especially Pakistanis and Arabs, are greedy and only want good for "them" self’s. They don't care about Islam and Allah's law. Until the whole Muslim world unites under Islamic law and the Quran and abide by Allah's law and stop being a bunch of Backward idiots, only then will the west have to fear Islam like it did in the middle ages . The Arabs and the Asians are the ones holding Islam back , it's not the west.

America is powerful, but great power comes great responsibly...and jugging from America's record on warmonger I can't say America acted in an "uncivilized" way.

 

[Akka]

Well, I thought it was pretty obvious that Red Threat's scenario was a huge fairytale overly optimistic.

I mean, ousting the UK out of UE and the USA voting left ? That's far too good to be true, even in imagination

 

[Holden]

The future:

The world will go on and everyone at CFC will continue to post about how wrong everyone is about everything!

Bush will set up Iraqi deathcamps, in which US soldiers are given pay bonuses to kill Iraqi women and children. Sadaam Hussein will look down from heaven (because he was such a kind and benevolent ruler) and weep for his people who loved him so much. Bush will exterminate every Iraqi person except for a force of oil slaves.

edit: another prediction- CFC members will continually post comments about how immature and unintellectual and illogical Holden is, and how they ignore his posts or only read them to see how pathetic Holden is. Many people will post about how little logic are in his posts because we all LOVE LOGIC at CFC.

 

[HamaticBabylon]

The future:

The world will go on and everyone at CFC will continue to post about how wrong everyone is about everything!

Bush will set up Iraqi deathcamps, in which US soldiers are given pay bonuses to kill Iraqi women and children. Sadaam Hussein will look down from heaven (because he was such a kind and benevolent ruler) and weep for his people who loved him so much. Bush will exterminate every Iraqi person except for a force of oil slaves.

I don't know about the Heaven bit ...i would imagine that he will be looking up at the Iraqi oil "slaves" from hell and saying "oh so my American employers were such nice people to me; at last I fought "bravely" in Iran and Kuwait and fired a few SCUDS at the Jews."

 

[LLXerxes]

Are you optimistic about the world future?

Heck no.
Not with the way we are threating it.

 

[Immortal]

Holden: Interesting conjecture, but with today's modern mobility of word and people, such a horrible atrocity will never be conducted.

 

[Capulet]

My friend Red Threat, your scenario is a big fairy tale...not in a million years would the Muslims unite...the Pakistanis, Indians, African Muslims, Arab Muslims are two backward in technology and mind development (even though they have the Quran!). Also every race, especially Pakistanis and Arabs, are greedy and only want good for "them" self’s. They don't care about Islam and Allah's law. Until the whole Muslim world unites under Islamic law and the Quran and abide by Allah's law and stop being a bunch of Backward idiots, only then will the west have to fear Islam like it did in the middle ages . The Arabs and the Asians are the ones holding Islam back , it's not the west.

America is powerful, but great power comes great responsibly...and jugging from America's record on warmonger I can't say America acted in an "uncivilized" way.

The Arabs and the Asians are the ones holding Islam back? Excuse me, but that's a big disrespect to the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) He was an Arab. The Arabs are the ones who brought glory to Islam. The Asians make up the majority in Islam.

What have the African Muslims done? They've declared war on the African Christians, and they just kill each other and destroy each other's food sources constantly.

The Muslims have united before, and someday they will unite again.

 

[Archer 007]

Well, I thought it was pretty obvious that Red Threat's scenario was a huge fairytale overly optimistic.

A Second Great Depression is optimistic?

 

[stormbind]

2nd Great Depression is inevitable. Maybe next time, the morons of this world will learn not to accept credit?

The Brazillians will reduce the last great rain forest to dust, and our required oxygen will be supplied by Microsoft.

I'm optimistic, but I fear that foolish people will continue to have influence and hinder progress

 

[Akka]

A Second Great Depression is optimistic?

When it lasts for one or two years and is immediately followed by a rosy "everyone becomes friends and moderate" world, well, yes it is.

 

[Archer 007]

When it lasts for one or two years and is immediately followed by a rosy "everyone becomes friends and moderate" world, well, yes it is.

I would still consider it pretty bleak.
A Second Great Depression would be more likely to start a war then bring peace.