General Turn Discussion

[Memphus]

Haha....

Kaz just advanced 8 RedCoats & 6 Cannons.....Zero falls next turn.


We also can't change civics for 3 more turns.

We are in nationalism.

We havn't discovered Military Tradition yet.

What is the cost to upgrade a knight? (we can save 340 gold per turn + what saturn gives ~150)
so assume 500 per turn. We need minimum 3 turns to get military tradition.

 

[Memphus]

This is what we can do:

1. Walk away from Zero. (Kaz) Walk away from Chai. (cav)

2. Concentrate units at TKY, it builds a rifle in 1 and drafts 1 per turn, use Zhue cha to draft (almost size 6 farms are going in) DT is drafting.

3. We can kill 1 of the 3 stacks this turn (cav's on the hill) and then it will take at least 2 more turns for those next stacks to get here, which will let us get 5 more rifles into the mix. (still not enough)

4. Seriously consider this:

Spoiler :

Memphus says:
So the cost Benefit is quite different
Memphus says:
Simming it out, all we can do now is choose who wins the game.
Memphus says:
your stack & reinforcements is stronger than Cav's
Memphus says:
if we attack you Cav runs through us and then easily win the game
Memphus says:
if we attack Cav you can run through us, but do you stop and hit cav ever?
Memphus says:
well we could work with cav to wipe you off the map of course
Memphus says:
true
Memphus says:
and then let figure out things with them after you are gone
Memphus says:
guarantted cav win.
Memphus says:
you could work with cav to still do that
Memphus says:
but if our units happen to only attack thier advancing stacks not yours....
Memphus says:
then you have many more troops in the long run for after the dust settles.
Memphus says:
true
Memphus says:
I guess where I am going with this is your opening asked us to abadon zero and walk away.
Memphus says:
what if we do that?
Memphus says:
well in our previous discussion tky was always the sticking point
Memphus says:
that it was, but that is currently our only way to hold back cav.
Memphus says:
(I have proposed TKY to the team as well)
Memphus says:
well do you see any possibility of hold zero, tky, chai and zue cha against cav and us?
Memphus says:
yup
Memphus says:
ah ok
Memphus says:
but for itnerest sake if we gifted you TKY or walked away from it and zero, where would that get us?
Memphus says:
you woudl still have all your troops and would jsut press us at that point no?
Memphus says:
btw if you had waited one more turn to declare....you coudl of easily walked through us
Memphus says:
i would of attacked one of the 2 cav stacks.
Memphus says:
and then all our units would have been damaged / dead.
Memphus says:
but now with 3 stacks I am not sure If attacking this turn (cav) is the way to go.
Memphus says:
well how much do you think our combined forces could roll up cav?
Memphus says:
right to their capital
Memphus says:

Memphus says:
assumign neither of us built anymore troops.
Memphus says:
sancta has enough units this turn to wipe out 1 of the 2 cav stacks.
Memphus says:
your initial stack easily kills thier other one.
Memphus says:
meaning we are at about +10 rifles on them now. they also have minimal defences throughout thier empire.
Memphus says:
well what would be the division of spoils?
Memphus says:
all of cavs land would be yours.
Memphus says:
every city.
Memphus says:
so are we back to tky as the sticking point?
Memphus says:
is that the stiking point?
Memphus says:
well i know you guys built globe there
Memphus says:
it can draft 1 unit every turn.
Memphus says:
some on our team say you guys will never gift it now
Memphus says:
meh
Memphus says:
if we had a concrete deal that once you have TKY you go right for cav
Memphus says:
i can see it happening
Memphus says:
well we'd need assurances that you'd go after them 100% alongside us
Memphus says:
might as well...we need to put a dent in them to re-balance the game
Memphus says:
and that we could come out with a relative balance of power
Memphus says:
swapping 2nd place from behind cav to behind you doesnt really change all that much for us
Memphus says:
with TKY and Zero you are 1st with your stack.
Memphus says:
so getting cav's land would go a long way to evening things out
Memphus says:
take 4 of Cav's city's at their mouth and look out.
Memphus says:
Cav without you to tech and they start falling behind fast.
Memphus says:
back in 30 min work meeting.
Memphus says:
k
Memphus says:
and back
Memphus says:
that took wayy to long...
Memphus says:
so if we walk away from Zero this turn (aka an easy capture for you next turn, no troop loses)
Memphus says:
woudl you then write up something formal upon the surrend of TKY from us?
Memphus says:
well you could gift us tky and that would stop cav cold in their tracks
Memphus says:
would it? then then jsut run on the roads right to our next city.
Memphus says:
we close borders with them, push there stack on open ground
Memphus says:
you attack it
Memphus says:
hmmmm
Memphus says:
now that is very interesting
Memphus says:
gifting gives automatic culture for the small bfc right?
Memphus says:
not sure I will have to sim
Memphus says:
because we have culture from our other cities there too...
Memphus says:
and we do open borders with you at the same time so you can attack before cav's turn
Memphus says:
but gifting i think removes our orinigal culture
Memphus says:
well if they are on the hill right next to tky it would push them 1 west right?
Memphus says:
it should if the culture works.
Memphus says:
they wouldnt have time to react because you could attack before their turn
Memphus says:
cancels out the guerilla bonuses
Memphus says:
they only have 1 1 rifle with guerilla
Memphus says:
but stilll huge difference
Memphus says:
ah they said they had a bunch
Memphus says:
not to mention the -25% for all the other units...
Memphus says:
they have 3 other geurilla 2's
Memphus says:
but that is in anotehr stack
Memphus says:
thier front stack is all outdated units
Memphus says:
AKA they are keeping thier new units until after we both bang up
Memphus says:
which includes 5 rifles, and 6 cannons.
Memphus says:
ah ok
Memphus says:
they want to preserve their combat power
Memphus says:
exactly
Memphus says:
my best guess (not knowing the dynamics which i can't wait to read)
Memphus says:
is they want us to attack you first, you win zero TKY
Memphus says:
they keep all their units.
Memphus says:
well they wanted us to fight you at zero
Memphus says:
well you can still keep that promise and capture zero...walk right in.
Memphus says:
make it look like you are just retreating to face them
Memphus says:
FYI the reason i am slighly hesistant on TKY this turn, is we get 2 more riles (1 built, and 1 drafted) if we wait until next turn.
Memphus says:
that is currently how i am leaning
Memphus says:
we stay at war this turn
Memphus says:
you walk in at zero
Memphus says:
we kill their first stack.
Memphus says:
they advance their second
Memphus says:
we gift TKY afterwards
Memphus says:
well we could time it so our stack gets there
Memphus says:
and then they have now taken a hit in power
Memphus says:
peace and open border at the same time?
Memphus says:
does that work to avoid pushing a stack back?
Memphus says:
as in our stack?
Memphus says:
yes our units would stay put
Memphus says:
so the timeline to me is:
Memphus says:
1. you capture zero get the gold next turn
Memphus says:
our stack i mean
Memphus says:
so we could dow cav and hit them right after yours
Memphus says:
you stack will stay
Memphus says:
2. we kill cav stack 1
Memphus says:
3. we gift TKY, go to peace OB
Memphus says:
4. we hit stack #2
Memphus says:
5. you hit stack #2.
Memphus says:
6. cav has nothing left.
Memphus says:
we could roll them up fast after that
Memphus says:
ok so that will be my move this turn then for good faith
Memphus says:
i will walk away from zero (and rename it)
Memphus says:
well i need to get my team 100% on board
Memphus says:
we'd need assurances
Memphus says:
full tech cooperation
Memphus says:
stuff like that
Memphus says:
walking away from a city is a good start
Memphus says:
oh for sure
Memphus says:
lib can come in the peace deal
Memphus says:
well you guys were going to evacuate anyways
Memphus says:
not for sure.
Memphus says:
i could upgrade the LB
Memphus says:
move in 4 rifles
Memphus says:
and try to make a stand
Memphus says:
well thats what we assumed anyways since tky w/ globe is worth defending
Memphus says:
true
Memphus says:
we attacked because we figured now was when we had leverage
Memphus says:
you certainly do!
Memphus says:
that is why my openign was:
Memphus says:
we can hold both
Memphus says:
but we can swing the game one way or the other.
Memphus says:
TBH I woudl rather you guys beat cav and us come 2nd
Memphus says:
than to see cav win
Memphus says:
them getting MS on one side wasn't so fair (kinda liek us with saturn)
Memphus says:
we still have a strong pro cav faction
Memphus says:
based on other game relationships it seems
Memphus says:
haha good to knwo you still have participation.
Memphus says:
the game speed picked up and everyoen at sancta who complained all game were then too busy
Memphus says:
people coming back now?
Memphus says:
nothing like war to stir up a little interest
Memphus says:
no
Memphus says:
they see it as this was planned sicne the game started
Memphus says:
and most want me to jsut bash into you and gift our 4 front cities to cav.
Memphus says:
i however do not like rolling over
Memphus says:
haha
Memphus says:
well that would be surrendering basically
Memphus says:
i was also tempted to gift TKY to MS at somepoint...
Memphus says:
but they woudl decline.
Memphus says:
they are aloof
Memphus says:
this is why i kinda want to see you guys win now.
Memphus says:
you stack (and reinforcements) show me your team grew leaps and bounds from the last attack
Memphus says:
meanign you came with everythign at once and were really ready.
Memphus says:
you could of declared when cav but didn't instead you waited.
Memphus says:
cav's have been favorites all game, so being kingmaker to you would be alot more fun!
Memphus says:
well they have treated us as less that equals
Memphus says:
so we are ready for a game change
Memphus says:
alright well the game is down, so how about we both post this.
Memphus says:
k
Memphus says:
i will fidn away to convince sancta to walk away from TKY.
Memphus says:
cool

 

[Krill]

Get MT in 2, I'm pretty sure that is possible with research/scientists and starvation. That should have been the first aim after rifling...

Can you kill the first Cav stack and pillage the roads on the hill andflood plain?

 

[Krill]

Also you screwed up the posted chat.

 

[Memphus]

Get MT in 2, I'm pretty sure that is possible with research/scientists and starvation. That should have been the first aim after rifling...

Can you kill the first Cav stack and pillage the roads on the hill andflood plain?

We can pillage the road on the hill, not the floodplain. But doign that still slows down cav alot.

BTW this is what Kaz has:

Spoiler :

oh and it sucks that redcoats get +25% on gunpowder.

MT in 2 isn't possible i just checked. 3 can be done.

 

[Memphus]

Also you screwed up the posted chat.

yes yes i did :sigh: and i don't have back up....

the jist of it is: Kaz will hit Cav if we give them TKY.

 

[Krill]

I'd be up for that if we can draft it down to size 6 first for rifles (which are then used to kill Cav...)

 

[Memphus]

I'd be up for that if we can draft it down to size 6 first for rifles (which are then used to kill Cav...)

That is what I am working on.

We walk away from zero this turn. and let kaz capture it.

we draft TKY next turn (9), finish a rifle, then draft after we end turn (8). Cav advances, Kaz advances both on tky.

We go to peace with kaz, gift TKY, they hit cav, and then we both push cav.

In the meantime we get MT in 3. and get ready to upgrade our knights.

 

[Mojoqmeyvam]

I don't think we have much choice. The Great Kaz Flip, sure, it's not great for us, but it's way better than getting steamrolled with this oncoming war. I'll agree to whatever you can negotiate.

 

[Ronnie1]

Plus we can take back TKY in the future...when it suits us!

I am with Mojo here if we unless we have another really great round with the RNG!

 

[Memphus]

Even with a great round we can't kill 3 stacks

 

[Memphus]

Ok I will pause the game in 7 hours. It was an interesting cav battle.

Stack 1 of Cav is DEAD!

Spoiler :

We then deleted that chariot and axe as we want them to go by CHAI not TKY. (well that and free XP for them isn't a good idea). Well that and now it looks like thier stack just got deleted off the map (and the road, so our units are safe for a turn). If anyone wants me to do a war write up I can jsut say (they just take alot of time and i have a flight to catch today). We had 45% odds of killing that that stack. But the R N G gods were with us. We won 6 battles under 50%.

We have abandoned Zero. It had no chance, but we now have alot of troops at TKY if we decide to make a stand. (although the Kaz offer is still looking good)

We also seem to be at war with Saturn .... that is why we need the pause, to sort that out. I was checking odds mid battle, (holding alt) and clicked on Saturn and not a unit near them in the bottom right. this is now the second time i have done that this game. Hopefully they can log in and accept peace and re-offer all the resource trades.

 

[IamJohn]

Wow, very nice job Memphis

Just random thinking: are we watching the sea? I'm still concerned about kaz making a landing...

 

[Memphus]

Wow, very nice job Memphis

Just random thinking: are we watching the sea? I'm still concerned about kaz making a landing...

Yes we are. Kaz has frigates near PM. but we have rifles and longbows there we are ok.

the rest of our coast can draft now, so if ships show up we draft, but until then we need the drafts in the hot zone. Our caravels have a sentry net out there (Ill take screenies at the end of the turn.)

 

[Sullla]

We had 45% odds of killing that that stack. But the R N G gods were with us. We won 6 battles under 50%.

Again?!

Guys, I've gone to bat for you over and over again in the other team forums. Whether or not you know this, every other team in the game thinks you're cheating in your combat results. I've given you the benefit of the doubt so far, but frankly I don't believe Memphus anymore either. You can suck out at low odds once or twice, there's nothing surprising about that. However, this is about the sixth different time I've seen SANCTA get suspiciously lucky, and not once has your team ever gotten "bad" combat results against another team. (Yes, SANCTA lost to barb units at bad odds. But never to another human team.)

It's all very, very fishy. Look, I don't like to make accusations, but Memphus is making it hard not to think otherwise. Especially with those Pause requests for unspecified reasons. Please make your case and reassure me that nothing suspicious is happening.

 

[Memphus]

Nothing suspicious. Pause request is made so that Saturn and us can make peace, and re-establish relationships.

Attack was done prior to asking for the pause.

Attack sequence was standard:

Collateral first, got crushed but did thier collateral, then units with best odds, when odds couldn't be good, fodder units went in.

Not sure how to change the RNG? Maybe no one gets this lucky because no one takes the chance? But with 3 approaching stacks (1 of kaz's we hope to have go right on by) what were our other choices?

 

[mostly-harmless]

Not sure, but we have trade routes with Saturn, right?
Those will suffer even after peace is signed again, as it takes a while for the "sustained peace" modifier to climb up again (3% per turn iirc).

As for the combat results, I think it is really down to actually trying at low odds. I am always trying to fight only on good odds and get annoyed by loosing a fight now and then with 75+%.
But by the same mechanism, one can expect to win 4 out of 10 battles if all are fought at 40% odds. In comes the RNG and you win 5 or 6 out of 10.

mh

 

[regoarrarr]

How would you even cheat? Reload the game?

 

[Memphus]

just had an interesting chat with slaze in game...

they seem to know we abandoned Zero (renamed scotland ). This leads me to believe that Kaz told them and our hopes of actual peace may be small. We may still have to gift TKY, just to get 10 turns of peace from Kaz (enough to get a whack of cavalry down there) But jsut wanted you guys to know.

Kaz wants us to not begin researching MT as they said they will gift it to us once we have peace.... I think given this new intel we research it! thoughts?

 

[Sullla]

Memphus, I noticed that you didn't post the actual combat results of what happened this past turn. I asked the Cavs for a summary, and this was what they sent me:

our unit v their unit, our strength v their strength, their odds, our result

rifle v cat, 24.5 v 5, 0.0%, win, although they get 2 hits before our 3, we're at 80/100
rifle v cat, 19.6 v 5, 0.1%, win
rifle v rifle, 22.4 v 15.4, 10.9%, lose
pike v knight, 13.37 v 10, 21.7%, lose
pike v knight, 13.37 v 11, 26.6%, lose
knight v rifle, 10.23 v 14, 79.5%, lose
WE v knight, 12.51 v 12, 47.5%, lose
pike v knight, 12.05 v 11, 44.6%, lose
knight v spear, 5.5 v 4.4, 24.7%, lose
WE v HA, 11.42 v 6, 5.0%, withdrawl (30% rate)
knight v knight, 11.16 v 11, 49.3%, lose
knight v knight, 10.32 v 12, 71.2%, lose
knight v knight, 10.23 v 10, 48.8% lose
WE v axe, 4.03 v 5, 85.2%, lose

Going by the game odds(which i've heard aren't the most accurate) and not counting the catapults, multiplying all these percentages yeilds about a 1 in 100,000 chance for them to win all these battles.

They also killed the two workers and pillaged the road by deleting a chariot.

Could you confirm or deny these results? Because... damn, that's pretty suspicious. Especially since you guys killed the two Cav knights at low odds a few turns ago... and destroyed the Kaz mace stacks at low odds... and won that naval attack with AT's galley at like 10% odds...

I'd like to give you a chance to explain yourselves before taking anything to the General forum. And no, brushing the issue aside and saying "how could we cheat?" is not a response.