Gengis Khan said:
As for the FP, it's a good use of the leader but I personally think we'll pull in another during the war. Mistfits graphs are a great tool, but somewhere misleading when looking for the odds of pulling in at least another leader. Notice that after 12 Elite victories the number starts going down? That's because it becomes more likely that you'll get 2 leaders then just 1, and his graph goes by getting exactly that number of leaders.
(Help! Dell Support is hijacking my computer!)
The tables determine an exact number of veteran-to-elite promotions, since we don't have any elite MWs yet. I wanted to see if I could practically find a balance between fighting with veterans to get elites and fighting with elites to get GLs.
You're right about getting GLs though - once we're talking about GLs, the only thing that matters is getting at least one. That information was nestled on Sheet2, which was so boring to look at that I didn't even bother taking screenshots of it.
Here are those numbers:
After one (1) elite victory, we have a 6.25% chance of having at least one leader. (1 in 16)
2 victories - 12.10% (~ 1 in 8)
5 victories - 27.58% (~ 1 in 4)
8 victories - 40.83% (1 in 2.5)
11 victories - 50.83% (1 in 2)
17 victories - 66.62% (2 in 3)
22 victories - 75.82% (3 in 4)
25 victories - 80.08% (4 in 5)
30 victories - 85.57% (17 in 20)
36 victories - 90.21% (9 in 10)
And these are still victories, so I'm not taking into account the fact that we're going to lose some elite-vs-whatever battles, no matter how careful we are. So it might take, say, closer to 15 or 16 fights to get 11 victories and then have a 1 in 2 chance of getting a leader.
I'm not saying we won't get lucky, but Xerxes had better have a lot of troops for us to fight.