Glenn Beck Says All Hispanics Should Go Back Where They Came From!

[ColdClimate]

It is not a "fault" at all. It is a quite common practice amongst rational adults. Being a "statistician, I'm surprised you haven't noticed this until now:

The rational adults at 'boingboing.com'?

It's fine to compare statistics that are similar metrics, but useless to compare, say the odds of being hit by lightning to the success rate of a mortar.

Or say, the total number of trips taken by individuals (7B) to actual individuals who have been killed....

 

[ParadigmShifter]

Well, a ninja edit was performed.

ColdClimate pointed out the main flaws. If you take 7 trips by plane and are killed by a terrorist attack on the final flight it does not mean you are only 1/7th killed.

Anyway, you want to be comparing rates of objects having properties (dead vs. not dead) using the chi-squared test, which I have already posted a calculator for and a link therein describing how to perform the test.

I'm sure we agree that living in Israel is more dangerous than taking a trip on a plane in America.

I'm sure we also agree that living in Gaza is a risk as well.

 

[Formaldehyde]

We aren't discussing a scientific study here comparing apples and oranges. We are discussing the relative odds of different things happening to a given individual. I would expect statisticians to be able to discern the difference.

 

[Formaldehyde]

The rational adults at 'boingboing.com'?

I changed that because I noticed the graphic was in error.

It's fine to compare statistics that are similar metrics, but useless to compare, say the odds of being hit by lightning to the success rate of a mortar.

We aren't discussing a scientific study here comparing apples and oranges. We are discussing the relative odds of different things happening to a given individual. I would expect statisticians to be able to discern the difference.

 

[Patroklos]

How are the Palestinians going to improve their land if they can't even import enough building materials into the Gaza Strip to make a mud hut?

The could have started by not officially siding themselves with the losers of a series of wars from the 40s-70s.

The only thing you need to know about the Palestinians to put everything in perspective is that even their declared allies like Jordan and Iran practice NIMBY concering them.

 

[MobBoss]

I would expect statisticians to be able to discern the difference.

I think they did that with your first post on it.

Also, your 'irrational fear' comment is is itself a red herring. Why? Because not all fears are irrational. Some are quite valid.

And while humans in general may indeed over-worry about something without regards to the stats involved, the actual risk doesnt do much to make the guy that just got shark bit feel any better.

 

[GoodGame]

I think the Israelis should just been given what they want - the Gaza strip. Give Hamas Jerusalem.

You've got a great sense of irony, JR.

 

[Formaldehyde]

The incessant fearmongering over terrorism and the resultant fear it provokes in some is quite irrational. And no, it's not a "red herring" at all.

 

[ParadigmShifter]

Open another thread about that then. (EDIT: It's gotta be better than this one which is a typical Merkinball dig at liberals whilst stereotyping them all).

But really you can't compare even the lightning/being killed by terrorism on a flight thing.

Lightning death would of course be even rarer if you considered the chance of being killed by lightning in a time interval equal to the average flight time, which would be much more meaningful a statistic.

You can only be killed once but you can take many flights.

 

[Formaldehyde]

But really you can't compare even the lightning/being killed by terrorism on a flight thing.

Certainly you can. Their common basis is the odds of a specific event happening to a given indivdual. As such, they are emininently comparable and do much to dispel the obvious fearmongering over such acts.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html

When major catastrophes strike, like the recent Asian earthquake and tsunami, the mass deaths can lead one to think that natural disasters are the most likely way people can die.

Not by a long shot.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the leading causes of death in the United States are, in this order, heart disease, cancer, stroke, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and "accidental injury," a broad category that includes a lot of stuff that just happens.

You are more likely to commit suicide or fall to your death than be killed by a tsunami or any natural disaster, the odds say. [See Table]

Cause of Death Lifetime Odds
Heart Disease 1-in-5
Cancer 1-in-7
Stroke 1-in-23
Accidental Injury 1-in-36
Motor Vehicle Accident* 1-in-100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide) 1-in-121
Falling Down 1-in-246
Assault by Firearm 1-in-325
Fire or Smoke 1-in-1,116
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) 1-in-3,357
Electrocution* 1-in-5,000
Drowning 1-in-8,942
Air Travel Accident* 1-in-20,000
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above)1-in-30,000
Legal Execution 1-in-58,618
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above)1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above)1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting* 1-in-100,000
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above)1-in-131,890
Dog Attack 1-in-147,717
Asteroid Impact* 1-in-200,000**
Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge 1-in-615,488

 

[ParadigmShifter]

Not in the way the original graphic calculated it I believe (it's gone now, so whatever).

Anyway I'd start another thread about it anyway since it's a far more interesting discussion than the OP.

If you want a serious discussion open it in Sci/Tech.

If you want laymen to chip in open it here. It's too much hassle to debunk everything in a big OT thread though.

 

[MobBoss]

The incessant fearmongering over terrorism and the resultant fear it provokes in some is quite irrational. And no, it's not a "red herring" at all.

In this context, it is. Especially since your insinuation is that all fears of terrorism are unreasonable. They arent.

 

[Merkinball]

Why are we discussing the odds of such an incursion? We have you all side tracked my thread! As Paradigm pointed out, this is not a discussion on comparative statistics between a natural disaster and a massive group of people who want a certain race of people annihilated simply because they read the Torah and not the Quran. This is also a thread about anti-semitism, and anti-semitism that exists within the mainstream of American society, just slightly hidden and out of mainstream view. There are plenty of people who are now defending Thomas and her absolutely insane and racist comments.

I find it the dichotomy of history strange. In the 1930s many Europeans and Westerners (also Russians) felt that the Jews needed to go back to Palestine. They were viewed as parasites that were stealing land and population bombing various areas as they were driven out of Palestine. The age old question of the Jewish problem was to simply send them back to Palestine. Now many western liberals, like Thomas, feel that the Jews need to get out of Palestine and go back to where they came from (Poland, Germany, the US). As much as I have always, always despised Helen Thomas, I found this to be rather shocking in its content and frankness. And it really makes me wonder have far anti-semitism extends throughout liberal western society.

 

[Formaldehyde]

First, you have to assume that her remark was due to "anti-Semitism".

But while we are on the subject of anti-Semitism and you already mentioned Glenn Beck in your subject bar, why don't you try to address the issue that he supported a real anti-Semite and racist to boot?

Beck: No apologies for promoting an anti-Semite Nazi sympathizer.

 

[warpus]

In this context, it is. Especially since your insinuation is that all fears of terrorism are unreasonable. They arent.

Sure, but as someone who lives in Canada, where I am equally likely to be killed by a terrorist attack as a meteor strike or a freak typing accident, terrorism isn't really that high up on my list of things to worry about on a day to day basis.

 

[Formaldehyde]

It isn't in this country either, except amongst those who are deliberately fearmongering and the people who believe them. We have much in common with Israel. We use the same lame excuses to make victims of innocent people.

 

[Merkinball]

It isn't in this country either, except amongst those who are deliberately fearmongering and the people who believe them. We have much in common with Israel. We use the same lame excuses to make victims of innocent people.

It would be if good people did nothing to mitigate it.

 

[Formaldehyde]

You mean "good people" instigating it?

Have you ever wondered why Canada, or most any other country, hasn't been the victim of major terrorist attacks? What they all have in common with each other?

 

[Voyhkah]

AAhhhhhh! Uhhhhh... If only the Israelis and Palastinians could coexist peacefully and not care about each other's religions. And while I'm at it, I'd like a few hundred billion dollars...

 

[GoodGame]

So anyways, Ms. Helen Thomas already was castigated by her boss and resigned.

Not sure why Glenn Beck and Hispanics need to be dragged into it.