Global warming - a suggestion

I would expect a graph that appears on wikipedia to be as reliable as the source it came from, not as reliable as wikipedia itself.
The ozone hole is a finished debate. It was certainly more clearcut than the current debate about climate.

Temperature stations positioned on ashphalt being subject to the effect known as the urban heat island effect is nothing new to scientists. Scientists do account for that affect. Having said that, there are other reliable sources of temperature data - most notably the data obtained from satellites (IIRC the data from NASA is quite reliable). Ignoring this data completely and focusing solely on the argued problems with ground-based temperature monitoring indicates cherry picking of evidence.

that since we are in the warm period of an ice age cycle it is far more likley that any time now (since we are nearing the time when we run out of the margin for error) we will enter another ice age,
Given your significant skepticism of scientific theories, I find it surprising you have little difficulty believing in this proposition over any other, unless of course you're falling again into the trap of the anecdotal evidence fallacy.

But it is impossible to argue this subject since no one here can be convinced by any one else here so I will Now move on to gameplay.
A cop out and attempt at getting the last word in if I ever did see one. ;)

By the way, you might have a good chance of convincing me if you have a qualification of any sort that is relevant to the discussion. :)
 
I would expect a graph that appears on wikipedia to be as reliable as the source it came from, not as reliable as wikipedia itself.
The ozone hole is a finished debate. It was certainly more clearcut than the current debate about climate.

Temperature stations positioned on ashphalt being subject to the effect known as the urban heat island effect is nothing new to scientists. Scientists do account for that affect. Having said that, there are other reliable sources of temperature data - most notably the data obtained from satellites (IIRC the data from NASA is quite reliable). Ignoring this data completely and focusing solely on the argued problems with ground-based temperature monitoring indicates cherry picking of evidence.


Given your significant skepticism of scientific theories, I find it surprising you have little difficulty believing in this proposition over any other, unless of course you're falling again into the trap of the anecdotal evidence fallacy.

A cop out and attempt at getting the last word in if I ever did see one. ;)

By the way, you might have a good chance of convincing me if you have a qualification of any sort that is relevant to the discussion. :)

IIRC scientists got screamed at for adjusting data because of that
 
IIRC scientists got screamed at for adjusting data because of that

Are you referring to the University of East Anglia scientists? It sounds like whatever they did was basically a foolish mistake and certainly not what I meant by taking the effect into account. Taking something into account doesn't mean you need to fudge data or falsify results, particularly in regards to estimates of uncertainty in observations. It's hard to get a clear story on what exactly happened there.
 
A somewhat simplified explanation:
Blizzards are caused not by cold, but by getting colder + having water vapor in the air. If it were really cold for a long period, you could not get a major snowfall, because there would be little evaporation, and because the air would not be able to absorb and hold enough water.
[The amount of water that can be held in air is a function of temperature; you can only get really high humidity when its hot.]

Antarctica is very cold, but it is a desert; it has very little snowfall.

So, warmer temperatures in fact can increase snowfall, and increase the likelihood of severe snowfall events. You need relatively warm temperatures to evaporate significant amounts of water and to hold it in the air, and then a sudden trop in temperatures (below freezing) so that the water falls as snow.

So there is no contradiction between higher average global temperatures and increased probability/size of extreme snowfall events.

Additionally, weather is affected by far more things than average temperatures and how far north you are. Parts of the United Kingdom are on the same latitude as Moscow, but our weather is much much warmer because the gulf stream funnels warm sea water and weather up from the equator.

As the planet warms and fresh cool water pours into the sea from the ice caps, the gulf stream gets pushed down, bringing much colder weather to the UK.

Affects like this are seen everywhere. As the planet warms, the weather simply changes. Over all, things will become warmer, but at the moment the reason different places are the temperature they are is due to all sorts of different factors.
 
Are you referring to the University of East Anglia scientists? It sounds like whatever they did was basically a foolish mistake and certainly not what I meant by taking the effect into account. Taking something into account doesn't mean you need to fudge data or falsify results, particularly in regards to estimates of uncertainty in observations. It's hard to get a clear story on what exactly happened there.

no, before that
 
Ok, wouldn't it be a good idea to let me know what you're talking about then? ;)

Sorry, I have Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, People frequently don't understand what I'm saying
 
Sorry, I have Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, People frequently don't understand what I'm saying

I don't follow. People with dyslexia and dysgraphia can still answer questions can't they?

You said before scientists got screamed at. I asked what incident you referred to.
 
I don't follow. People with dyslexia and dysgraphia can still answer questions can't they?

You said before scientists got screamed at. I asked what incident you referred to.

It just sometimes renders my answers difficult to understand,

Not a specific incident, just general media excuse for "OMG scientists are changing the data, therefore it's fake"
 
Can we please go back to the original topic?
 
I would like to return to discussion on specific game effects of Global Climate Change:

It is proven fact that the world has undergone various cooling and warming ages, of varying degrees, throughout civilized history. Manmade or not, the existence of these cycles are not even remotely in question. I think it would be a cool feature to enable (or disable) these warming and cooling ages in-game. There would be something of a cycle to them, with the intensity and timeline a bit randomized, so that the degree of cooling or warming during each age is variable enough to keep players on their toes and have to re-work tiles.

DURING COOLINGS: Affected snow tiles becomes impassable ice, tundras become snow tiles, plains would turn to tundras, grasslands to plains, jungle to forests. Water tiles have a higher chance of freezing the further north one goes. Lakes might become frozen over, rivers may stop flowing altogether past a certain lattitude north or south.

DURING WARMINGS: Affected ice tiles become snow or water tiles, forests become jungles, grassland becomes plains, plains become deserts, lakes become oasises or grasslands, and rivers change course.

DURING BASELINE: Affected ice tiles will slowly migrate (glaciers) "downstream", creating rivers and lakes before them, and valleys behind them, changing the landscape and leaving resources (like stone) in their wake. Rivers occasionally change course by a tile or so every couple of hundred years.

The number of affected tiles would be that randomized intensity I was talking about earlier. Also the world type you create would have an effect on the intensity of the cycles (ie. tropical climate as opposed to arid climate).

To compensate for this, they just need to make the tile working time more realistic. Really, it should not take 10-500 years to plow a tile into a farm, plantation, mine, or anything else for that matter. If creating a farm or any other improvement only takes a turn or two, then reworking the tiles to compensate for changes due to warming, cooling, glaciers, or baseline river changes, should be an easy adjustment.
 
I think it would be a cool feature to enable (or disable) these warming and cooling ages in-game.
Why? Not everything that is realistic should be in the game.

How is this fun, to effectively randomize your economy income because of tile changes?

DURING COOLINGS: Affected snow tiles becomes impassable ice, tundras become snow tiles, plains would turn to tundras, grasslands to plains, jungle to forests. Water tiles have a higher chance of freezing the further north one goes. Lakes might become frozen over, rivers may stop flowing altogether past a certain lattitude north or south.
DURING WARMINGS: Affected ice tiles become snow or water tiles, forests become jungles, grassland becomes plains, plains become deserts, lakes become oasises or grasslands, and rivers change course.
DURING BASELINE: Affected ice tiles will slowly migrate (glaciers) "downstream", creating rivers and lakes before them, and valleys behind them, changing the landscape and leaving resources (like stone) in their wake. Rivers occasionally change course by a tile or so every couple of hundred years.

These are the kind of changes that happen during the Ice Ages, not during the last 6000 years (or more importantly over the last 1000 years, which is when most of the game takes place). Major changes of this scale are not realistic.
We have not had glaciers massively advancing and carving out major new valleys dozens of kms long during human history. We have not had jungles changing into forsets or vice versa. We have not had major changes in river course (like the Nile flowing into the Indian Ocean instead of the Med, or similar). We have not had rivers and lakes becoming permanently frozen all year round.
Yes there has been natural climate variation, but the basic climate biomes have mostly remained fairly stable (with some noteable exceptions, there are some areas that are considerable more arid that they were 2000 years ago).

Really, it should not take 10-500 years to plow a tile into a farm, plantation, mine, or anything else for that matter. If creating a farm or any other improvement only takes a turn or two
This is for gameplay. Turn times are an abstraction. If it only took 2 turns to build any improvement, then you wouldn't need many workers. And reoptimizing your improvement layout because of some tile changes is just irritating busywork, not fun.
Gameplay >>> realism.
 
Forgive me if this comes across wrong, but I am afraid you've made many assertions of fact out of assumptions of ignorance.

These are the kind of changes that happen during the Ice Ages, not during the last 6000 years (or more importantly over the last 1000 years, which is when most of the game takes place).

That's not true. There have been MANY coolings and warmings over the last 1000 years alone. (source)

"...It was also very cold in North America during the colonial period compared to today.

Colonial art often shows deep snows and ice filled rivers during the winters. The winter of 1780 was so cold in Virginia that the Norfolk Historical Society says the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay froze solid and men walked across it.

On the Virginia Beach oceanfront, ocean ice piled up 20 feet high and didn't melt completely until May. That's almost unimaginable in Virginia Beach today, where the ice on a typical winter's day is lucky to make it past noon..."


That's just one example of many. Every hundred years or so, there seems to be a radical shift in the climate, every few hundred years, it's even more so, every couple of thousand years, it's even more so. Every few tens of thousands, even more so... there's a pretty natural rythmn to this that can be found on any orbital eccentricity variance chart, geologic surveys, etc.

We have not had glaciers massively advancing and carving out major new valleys dozens of kms long during human history.

I'm sorry, but again, I'm afraid you are speaking from assumption, and not fact. Some glaciers move at the rate of over half a mile per year. Slower glaciers might take 15 years or so to move 1 mile. ( source ).


We have not had jungles changing into forsets or vice versa.

Yes, we do. and in fact, drought in rainforests caused by cooldowns or other causes result in that exact sort of transforation. This was later conclusively supported by experimentation.

"This sensitivity of large trees to drought means that a decline in rainfall will likely push this tall, green, lush rainforest towards a shorter, more stunted forest." (source ).


We have not had major changes in river course (like the Nile flowing into the Indian Ocean instead of the Med, or similar).

In point of fact, the Rio Grande, the border between Mexico and the US, has in U.S. history alone drifted back and forth over a 100 mile span, causing no end of border disputes. On a broader timescale, over hundreds or a couple of thousand years, absolutely rivers and lakes will change by hundreds, if not thousands of miles, depending on spillovers into different elevations, local soil type, forestation, grade...


We have not had rivers and lakes becoming permanently frozen all year round.

Again, wrong. See my earlier note.

Yes there has been natural climate variation, but the basic climate biomes have mostly remained fairly stable..

No, no, no. Look, just because where you are has remained more or less the same during your lifetime, and our current society has a concentration span of about 15 seconds, doesn't entitle you to make such wrong blanket assertations about the Earth. You really need to look this stuff up and do some serious reading on it before you say those kinds of things, because it makes you look like a child repeating stuff they heard off Fox News.


As for whether or not it would be fun...

And reoptimizing your improvement layout because of some tile changes is just irritating busywork, not fun.
Gameplay >>> realism....

...Why? Not everything that is realistic should be in the game....

...How is this fun, to effectively randomize your economy income because of tile changes?

Personally, I would consider it a great randomizing factor if handled correctly, one that would force the player to think about strategy in new ways as well as force a more realistic time/turn on the workers improvements. I realize not everyone would consider it fun. This is why I suggested the ability to enable or disable coolings/warmings. You wouldn't be forced to "suffer through it" if it could be disabled. However, just because you don't consider something fun, doesn't mean someone else wouldn't. I'm sure there are plenty of FPS-only players who look at a game like Civ and wonder how on Earth anyone would want to play such a game.
 
Some events could cause major rapid climate change too. Like the Year Without a Summer that was caused by a major volcanic eruption in Indonesia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer Also Climate change should be an option as it would provide a major boost to realism but many people would hate it. Also nuclear winter could be possible with a dynamic climate.
 
:confused: how do forests cause rain? my concern is that with no trees left nothing holds the top soil down causing it to wash down stream, with no good soil nothing grows to hold the soil down, creating a vicious cycle

Trees perspire to be able to move water up the tree from the roots.

Water enters roots-> water-through the powers of adhesion and cohesion- pull themselves up the tree do to the transpiration pull caused by diffusion out of the stomata. Therefore if trees perspire water, the make rain. (If you are bored, get a plastic grocery bag and put it over some leaves and seal the bag off. you can have a cup of water in a matter of hours :O)
 
I don't follow. People with dyslexia and dysgraphia can still answer questions can't they?

You said before scientists got screamed at. I asked what incident you referred to.

The write out the questions backwards. Onto the next thing that nobody knows about?
 
There has been global warming and global cooling throughout history.
Civ5 should have constantly changing climate throughout the game (or have it as an option).
The climate would change slowly.

This would cause each civilization to adapt to different climates throughout the game and make it more challenging.
 
There has been global warming and global cooling throughout history.
Civ5 should have constantly changing climate throughout the game (or have it as an option).
The climate would change slowly.

This would cause each civilization to adapt to different climates throughout the game and make it more challenging.

Hi and welcome back. :wavey:

Exactly how slowly when the game's progressing faster in the B.C.s than in the A.D.s?
 
That's not true. There have been MANY coolings and warmings over the last 1000 years alone
Yes, there have been many coolings and warmings, but the scale of these has been "small" relative to the differences in civ tile types. There have NOT been coolings and warmings in on the order where the kinds of changes being talked (see quote below) about have occurred on a large scale.

DURING COOLINGS: Affected snow tiles becomes impassable ice, tundras become snow tiles, plains would turn to tundras, grasslands to plains, jungle to forests. Water tiles have a higher chance of freezing the further north one goes. Lakes might become frozen over, rivers may stop flowing altogether past a certain lattitude north or south.
DURING WARMINGS: Affected ice tiles become snow or water tiles, forests become jungles, grassland becomes plains, plains become deserts, lakes become oasises or grasslands, and rivers change course.
DURING BASELINE: Affected ice tiles will slowly migrate (glaciers) "downstream", creating rivers and lakes before them, and valleys behind them, changing the landscape and leaving resources (like stone) in their wake. Rivers occasionally change course by a tile or so every couple of hundred years.

Again, wrong. See my earlier note.
You mean your note which talks about water freezing over *winter*? Not year-round? See the difference?
At no point in the last 1000 years have for example the Great Lakes in North America been consistently frozen over throughout the year.
A change in global temperature average of 1-2 degrees C is not the same as a change in global average temperatures of 3-5 degrees.

Recognize the difference between "there has been some variation" and "there has been variation on the scale necessary to cause large numbers of forest tiles to change to jungle, plains tiles to grassland or desert, grassland tiles to tundra, tundra to ice, etc.".

Colonial art often shows deep snows and ice filled rivers during the winters. The winter of 1780 was so cold in Virginia that the Norfolk Historical Society says the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay froze solid and men walked across it.
So, they had one cold winter.
That is not the same as Virginia becoming tundra, or with lakes freezing permanently.
Virginia in colonial times would still best be represented by the Grassland terrain type, with Forest.

I'm sorry, but again, I'm afraid you are speaking from assumption, and not fact
You're awfully patronizing for someone who is completely wrong.
Yes, some glaciers have advanced. But they have NOT been carving out large new valleys; they have been advancing down the valleys formed during the last ice age. At least not outside Antarctica and Greenland.
See the difference?

And from your own source:
A few glaciers have periods of very rapid advancement called surges. These glaciers exhibit normal movement until suddenly they accelerate, then return to their previous state. During these surges, the glacier may reach velocities far greater than normal speed
You cannot take a fast annual advance rate and extrapolate it out over a long period of time.

Look, just because where you are has remained more or less the same during your lifetime, and our current society has a concentration span of about 15 seconds, doesn't entitle you to make such wrong blanket assertations about the Earth. You really need to look this stuff up and do some serious reading on it before you say those kinds of things, because it makes you look like a child repeating stuff they heard off Fox News.
I have done my reading. Have you?
Please provide evidence of major large-scale biome shifts in the last 1000 years. Was Europe tundra, or desert? Was the Amazon forest rather than Jungle?
I think you don't realize how large are the differences in climate actually represented by the handful of extreme biome classifications represented in Civ. We have ice, tundra, plains, grassland, desert, with forest and jungle (and floodplains). That's *it*. So it takes a huge climate shift to actually change an area from one tile type to another.

Where are the new lakes that are dozens of km across? Where are the large rivers that have changed course by hundreds of km?

You're the one who sounds like you repeat things you've heard on Fox.

However, just because you don't consider something fun, doesn't mean someone else wouldn't
Just because you think something would be fun (oooh, more tedious micromanagement!) doesn't mean that it SHOULD be in the game.
Simlarly, randomness for its own sake (eg a chance that my great city spot might become bad because the river moves away and its grassland turn to tundra) is not fun either.

Trees perspire to be able to move water up the tree from the roots.

Water enters roots-> water-through the powers of adhesion and cohesion- pull themselves up the tree do to the transpiration pull caused by diffusion out of the stomata. Therefore if trees perspire water, the make rain. (If you are bored, get a plastic grocery bag and put it over some leaves and seal the bag off. you can have a cup of water in a matter of hours :O)
Note the difference between "making rain" and "increasing water available for human consumption/irrigation/hydro power.
Even if there is an increase in precitipitation, trees tend to then consume more water than they provide.

There are lots of good reasons to plant trees and prevent deforestation, but providing more water for agriculture isn't one of them. (Reducing soil erosions, which supports agriculture, is though.)
 
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