After trying myself in the last couple of GOTMs and seeing the mediocre score my "instinctive" playing style resulted in, I decided to throw everything I can find at this game. My goal is an early domination victory.
First I read the articles in the War Academy. I particularly liked
Then I installed two tools,
CivAssist by ainwood and
CRpSuite by Dianthus. I also created a scenario to simulate the conditions in the game and playtested many of my moves.
Then I put some effort into fog-gazing. I considered this witchcraft for a long time, until I found Dynamic's comment in the pre-game discussion that he was using an LCD display. I looked at the game (not ainwood's screenshot) on an LCD display and the dyes and the Southern wheat on plains were
clearly visible. Encouraged by this, I slightly modified my resources.pcx file so from now on fog-gazing will be an exact science.
Timeline
4000BC I decided to settle South-East from the starting location in order to get immediate access to the wheat bonus and to be able to make a 4-turn settler factory using the plain/wheat visible under the fog. The plan is to build two warriors, a settler, then a granary. The worker will build a road on the bonus grassland and then move on to the wheat to irrigate and build road. I will research Pottery first so that there won't be any issues starting a granary when the time comes.
3700BC The first warrior starts scouting towards South-West, taking advantage of the road and the mountain. It will continue on the montain-range towards North-West.
3450BC The second warrior heads South towards the mountain next to the dyes.
3400BC Pottery is researched. Decided to research The Wheel next as I felt that this would give me the most trading benefit if I encountered another civilization during the early game.
The first warrior reaches the end of the mountain range and spots the shoreline. He will continue towards North/North-East.
3350BC The second warrior reaches the mountain and spots yet another wheat resource, two desert tiles and two other mountains. It appears that the Southern area is uninteresting in terms of early settling so he will continue towards East.
3300BC I increase Luxury spending to 10% to avoid a riot in the capital. I will probably place the second city next to the dyes and connect up the luxury to avoid having to spend money on happiness. With the dyes online and two military units in the cities, population can go up to 5. That will be ideal for the 4-turn settler factory in the capital.
3250BC The first warrior finds another large mountain range. This Northern territory again seems uninteresting in terms of early expansion. It appears that I will have to expand mostly along the NW-SE line. There does seem to be a luxury in the mountains though, so the warrior will continue to explore in that direction a bit more.
3150BC The worker finished improvements on two bonus grasslands and the wheat on the grassland. Chossing the next improvement is not trivial and partially depends on the location of the second city. I decide to build the second city between the dyes and the Southern mountain mainly because I am thinking to build the Forbidden Palace city two tiles to the East from the capital, and that way this second city will fit into the 5-tile distance 2nd ring around the FP city. It's a pity that this city will not be able to take advantage of the 4th wheat immediately, but I think it will need to build some units first anyway, so reaching 5 shield per turn (with presumably 3 population and zero food surplus) will be sufficient for a while. Later on I will either build a temple there or build a city on the other side of the wheat so that the wheat falls within my cultural border.
Accordingly, I move the worker to the plain/wheat tile near the capital in order to irrigate it. The second city will use this tile while the capital is building the granary, as in that period population growth in the capital is not critical.
The first warrior confirms the location and type of the luxury: it's two counts of incense in the North.
3100BC First settler built, heads towards the previously discussed spot. The second scouting warrior spots another luxury, probably Ivory (still under fog).
3050BC Ivory to the East confirmed, plus another wheat seems to be hiding under the fog in North-Eastern direction. Way too far to be of immediate interest though.
The capital is at pop 2 again. It's amazing what an irrigated grass-wheat tile can do. There is no way to finish the granary before population grows to 3 so I keep one of the two citizens on the wheat tile for now. Some luxury spending will be necessary again soon.
3000BC Dyes City is built. Starts producing a warrior, which will be used to suppress unrest in the capital.
2900BC Warriors spot game, a coast or lake, and most importantly a Carthaginian warrior. They have Alphabet but wouldn't trade. According to the power-graph, I am not far behind them, but they do lead the point race 80 to 71.
2800BC The blueness SE from the capital is sea. Looks like we are on an L shaped continent. Or maybe this is an inland sea and the continent is a donought-shaped one??? Well, fortunately it doesn't matter yet.
The Wheel will be ready in 5 turns, hopefully the Carthaginians are busy researching Warrior Code or some such and I will be able to trade.
The capital is at pop 3, I temporarily need to increase luxury spending and I move the citizen away from the wheat tile to the 3rd bonus grassland to make sure the granary finishes before the next pop growth.
2750BC 3rd warrior ready, moves to capital, luxury back to 0%. Given the relatively slow current population growth in the capital, connecting the dyes is not as important so the worker first irrigates a plain tile next to the river.
2670BC One of the warriors finds the NE shoreline and 3 games next to the Carthaginian border (but outside of it). There also seems to be some wheal in the sea. I guess the Carthaginians don't need to think much where to settle. The other warrior finds another source of dyes as it continues on the shoreline. The sea here seems to be real one, not inland.
2630BC The Wheel is researched. The nearest horses are like 15 tiles away from the capital. I will have to send a warrior to explore the Southern and SW-ern regions to look for more -- if I can't find any nearer, then an extremely fast expansion towards the East will be required.
Hannibal would give Alphabet for the Wheel + 10 gold, or Alphabet + 10 gold for the Wheel and Pottery. I opt for the latter, even though this is a sweeter deal for Hannibal. I don't want him to spend effort on researching something I have already. Along the same lines, I choose to research Mathematics next; according to the Holy Excel Sheet Oracle, that's the least likely to catch Hannibal's attention as a research target.
2590BC Carthage has Warrior Code (be the Holy Excel Sheet Oracle praised!) now, and also a worker for sale, but the price is ridiculous so I pass.
2550BC[/B] 4th warrior is built. Given that the dyes will not be online for another 3 turns, this warrior will be needed for happiness.
2510BC Granary in the capital is ready, settler factory starts.
2470BC One warrior reaches the Eastern shoreline, the other the SW shoreline. Barring narrow land bridges, the only direction this continent can continue is NE. The third warrior will be heading that way. The other two will walk the shoreline to make sure I didn't miss any land bridges.
2390BC New warrior is built, will explore the South looking for horses. Dyes are finally online.
2350BC The warrior in the NE found something that looks like a land bridge: a mountain range going into the sea.
2310BC Second settler ready, goes East to found Forbidden City.
It dawns on me that I need one more 2 shield tile for the settler factory in the capital to function properly. This is where a forrest would come handy, but I don't have any. I could mine one of the hills, but that will take a relatively long time. So for now the plan is to mine a BG. First of all though I need another worker as the existing one will be busy improving the tiles around the Forbidden City.
Dyes City reaches pop 3, produces 5 shields and thus is excellently suited to churn out military units.
2230BC Forbidden City founded, starts Palace as a prebuild for the Forbidden Palace. Warrior sees a purple border (probably Arabs) on the other continent but no units so no contact is made.
The capital builds a worker. I debate with myself whether to build a settler now or another worker. The settler factory won't be fully functional for at least another 5 turns. I have 6 warriors, 2 workers, and 3 cities. If I build a worker first, then it will be at least 8 turns before a a new city can be founded. If I want to avoid paying for unit support, then Dyes City has to slow down building those warriors. Well, it could build barracks.
I decide to go for yet another worker.
2190BC The Nothern mountain range was not a land bridge.
2110BC A warrior spots another coninent to the West. No land bridge though.
Dyes City changes production to barracks to avoid unit support issues.
2070BC The warrior spots purple border (arabs?) but no unit, so no contact is made.
1990BC Mathematics is researched. Cartahge has only Warrior Code to offer, which is a bit light so I decide to wait. I choose Currency next according to the guidance of the Holy Excel Sheet Oracle.
Third settler ready. It will build a worker factory on the other side of the Eastern river, 4 tiles away from the capital. The idea is to be able to use one of the grass-wheat tiles and to fit on the future 3-distance ring around Forbidden City. Incidentally the new city is also the same distance from the capital as the Dyes City, which is advantagous from the corruption's point of view.
1950BC Carthage now has Iron Working and Warrior code but they won't give both for Mathematics. Should I get Iron Working from them to be able to see the ore deposits? Or should I get both Iron Working and Warrior Code for Mathematics, 3gpt, and 30 gold? That would mean that I am financing their research at the expense of slowing down mine. I decide for this option as I want to take advantage of whatever they research, plus they are more likely to be friendly to me as long as I am paying a per-turn. Along these lines, I change the deal to 4gpt and 8 gold.
There are several iron sources on our continent, one pretty close to my territory. Acquiring it won't be a problem, it seems.
1910BC A city called Worker Factory is founded and starts a granary.Once the granary is ready, a 3 turn worker factory is feasible but will require heavy micro-management (reassigning tiles at least once every 3 turns). I will also need to mine a plain tile to get the crucial extra 2 shields out of the population growth.
1870BC It is now confirmed that I can't reach the Arabs over land. I will park a warrior on the nearest tile, maybe the put a unit where I can see it.
1830BC Another settler is ready. Where should it go? Candidate sites include the ivory source and the wheat NE (would be nice to get both at the same time but that would mess up the future rings around the FP), the horses, one of the iron sources, the NW or SW shoreline as a preparation for galleys, and the rich grasslands NW from the capital.
Bah, text too long... Where the settler went will be revealed shortly.