Grand Strategy Thread

With our emphasis on science, I don't see why a space race win would be impossible. It will keep the game running for about the same length as a 20k, but there would be no central location for the opponents to take out, and it would not be easily evident early on.
 
With our emphasis on science, I don't see why a space race win would be impossible. It will keep the game running for about the same length as a 20k, but there would be no central location for the opponents to take out, and it would not be easily evident early on.

A space race win could be possible.
I do wonder if we would have enough productivity though.
That would depend on the other civ's locations/land available for conquest to them. If other warmongering civs are able to get more land early, so that the conquered cities will be productive it would be harder. Then again, there is usually a lot of waste and corruption in conquered cities as they are far from your own kingdom.

If they are all in a fairly similar position as ourselves regarding landmass and luxes, I guess we have a decent chance. More decent than some others due to our traits.
 
One of the reasons I mentioned shooting for the pyramids earlier is this: Imagine one of the agricultural civs building it! :eek:

That happened in the last game, but luckily the victor already had 120 cavalry on their way to wipe them out. Which brings me to my next point:

If one of the other civs (Ottomans, for a scary example) starts to poll over someone, we will be forced to build nothing but military for the remainder of the game to counter an eventual invasion. Believe me, it will be very ugly.
 
Being commercial and scientific, the longer the game goes on the better off we are.

We should be able to be the first to muskets and cavalry... perhaps knights as well. if we are really fortunate, first to fuedalism. Ottomans' are scary with cavalry... but to land an effective force, they will need a lot of galleys that aren't gonna be fast.
 
Having a large navy - and later airforce - is going to be rather crucial in this game.
 
Having a large navy - and later airforce - is going to be rather crucial in this game.

Agree with this, we can use naval vessels as look outs for early warning against a surprise attack, when we have 4-move naval units they can move out two squares into the ocean and back again spotting any enemy vessels without being seen themselves.
 
I have been thinking a bit about governments.

Which government?

We are not religious, so I would prefer to have no more than 1 revolution. That really leaves just one government: Republic. It comes early, is commercially strong, and flexible enough. (Monarchy is hardly better than Despotism, Feudalism is not flexible enough, all others too far in the future).

Republic vs Despotism
Biggest difference is in commerce (apart from the despotism penalty of course). You can compare with CivAssist, but I like to do some rough estimate by hand.
On the income side, a Republic produces 1 raw gold per citizen and 1 raw gold per town (from the city center) extra when compared to Despotism. This is modified by corruption (which is lower in Republic) and markets/libs to obtain net gold/beaker output. All in all, I guess a fair guess would be that net extra gold/beaker output will also be 1 gpt per citizen and 1 gpt per town.

Compared to despotism, a Republic costs about 5 gpt per town extra, if we count 2 gpt for entertainment (vs 2 MP in despotism), and 3 units per town (1 worker, 1 defender, and 1 contribution to navy and mobile defense/attack force). This assumes we use the lux slider for happiness.

This calculation suggests that the break even point for republic (compared to despotism) is when our towns are size 4 on average. For safety, I would prefer to have them a bit bigger. And perhaps we should not switch until FP and GLight are done.

Happiness
With only two native luxes, and no trade possibilities until Navigation or Magnetism, any type of government will need either the lux slider or happiness buildings (or specialists, but that requires loads of food - this option would be a good choice for our agri friends). Republic for example can only get 3 content citizens per town for free, despotism no more than 5.
The lux slider costs 1 raw gold (after corruption) per happy face, which translates into 1.5 net gold (assuming lib/market). Quite a lot.

I think under these circumstances we should consider the Sistine Chapel. With the Chapel, any town that has a temple + cathedral gets 7 happy faces for 3 gpt net and a one time investment of 60+160 shields (plus 600 shields for the Chapel). By comparison, the lux slider only gives 2 happy faces for that price.
Prebuilding the Chapel will of course require some preparation and planning.
Other alternatives would be Bach's or Hanging Gardens, but they seem less effective to me (and require an otherwise useless optional tech).

Discuss!
 
Good analysis here zyxy! :thumbsup:

My 2 quick comments…

Re: Republic – Even if it’s initially more expensive to revolt to Republic, I’ve still found that it’s generally worth it just to get out from under the despotism tile penalty. Also, since we’re on an island, I expect our standing army size can be a bit lower… esp once we secure our land from all the barbarians. This is especially true if we can pull off the Great Lighthouse.
Only thing I disagree with in your Republic analysis, is I don’t think you’re showing enough workers. From Chamnix I’ve learned a real appreciation for having at LEAST 1.5 workers per town… with 2 per a good goal.

Re: Sistine Chapel – I’m really not a fan of the S.C. mostly because I just always seem to have much more pressing and important things to build than temples and cathedrals… like libraries, markets, universities, workers, settlers, or military. But since we’re in a more lux starved environment than I’m used too… perhaps you’re right. I’m open to the possibility.
 
I agree republic is our government of choice. As for timing the revolution, I agree we should wait till the great lighthouse is built (either by us or someone else). As long as no one else owns that wonder we are safe until somewhere in the middle ages. Being safe means we can have a very small standing army. This would help offset our cost of having at least 1.5 workers per town for quite awhile.

The Sistine Chapel has its benefits but that's an investment of 60+160 shields in every city (for the temple and cathedral). Is our island small enough so that (with the forbidden palace) we won't have any cities that are so corrupt or wasteful that we'll be trying to build these things one shield at a time?

Like the General, I'm certainly open to the possibility but I think it's too early to commit. Do we have any good estimates of when the forbidden palace and great lighthouse will be done?

I'm also wondering whether we should be making plans to occupy the major islands. We know of one to the SE (between us and FREE) and suspect another to the NW. Even with galleys, the crossing is dangerous, but future benefits (defensive and potential fulture resources) may make it worth sending settlers into the unsafe waters.
 
Good points!

Ok, maybe we'll have a few more workers and fewer military. Total unit costs will still be in the same ballpark, I think.

In a normal SP game I don't even consider the Chapel. But the shortage of luxes is a rather compelling argument for it IMO. And with human opponents instead of AIs we can count on getting a fair share of the wonders. So yes, this is definitely out of the box.

donsig, if we have corrupt towns then of course we can keep them small, so they don't need temples/cathedrals. I don't want to see any lazy citizens that don't bring in gold or shields :). Any food surplus in such a town can be used to hire specialists.

I think it would definitely be a good idea to settle the islands, for the reasons you mention. With the GLight we can reach them safely. Otherwise we can use ship hopping to keep our settlers safe (but not the ships).

ETAs on FP and Torch are hard to give, because the towns are still growing. But ok, here's my guess:

The Torch (300 shields)
The Admiralty has 14% waste, so the 4th and 11th shield are wasted. Currently (turn 64) it does 5 spt and has gathered 52 shields.
The Admiralty cannot grow beyond size 6, and at size 6, with the tiles visible now, it could do 10 spt (net), as follows:
we mine the two plains and the grass in range of The Admiralty (this destroys the irrigation on one of the plains). We work the sugar and the bg in the S, the bg in the NE, the two plains and the grass, for 12 raw shields, which means 10 net shields.
To get to size 6 we grow once and add two workers. The improvements will take 3*6 = 18 worker turns, excluding movement, roading and the bg mine under construction. With the workers we'll build from TC we should be able to do all this in under 10 turns. In those 10 turns we'll get to about 110 shields I think, so after that it's another 19 turns, for 29 turns total.
This suggests btw not to start jungle operations with the new workers, but rather to improve the tiles we have. So good question!

FP (200 shields)
The Silo has 44% waste, so the 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th shields will be lost to corruption. Currently at size 2 we produce 3 raw spt, for 2 net spt, with 12 shields in the bin. At size 6, if we work 2 mined bg's, the wheat, the forest and 2 mined plains we will make 12 raw spt for 7 net spt. To construct 4 mines will take 24 worker turns excluding movement and roading.
I think we could grow the town to size 4 (this will take 13 turns), and then join two workers to bring it to size 6. The three workers in the area should be able to complete all 4 mines in roughly the same time period, and then two of them can join the town. In these 13 turns we can expect to generate about 2.5 spt on average, so 13 turns from now there'll be about 44 shields in the bin. It then takes another 22 or 23 turns to finish the FP, for 35-36 turns total.
 
I completely agree with going to republic, probably as soon as we can. Getting out of despotism is key.

While I like Sistine Chapel, it requires a huge investment: 600 shields for the wonder, plus 220 per city.

We are already looking at a library and uni for all our non-corrupt cities, and a bunch of them will get courts and perhaps markets.

How long will it take for us to get from Theology to Magnetism, or at least Navigation? Is it worth the huge investment?

well, when I first started typing, i thought it didn't make any sense to do this. Now I'm not sure. Hmm...
 
donsig, if we have corrupt towns then of course we can keep them small, so they don't need temples/cathedrals. I don't want to see any lazy citizens that don't bring in gold or shields :). Any food surplus in such a town can be used to hire specialists.

Ok, that makes sense. So we're really only talking about core cities that can build temples and cathedrals relatively fast. Given the length of time before we'll be able to trade luxuries the Chapel is an appealing wonder. It's still too early for me to see our way to it.

I think it would definitely be a good idea to settle the islands, for the reasons you mention. With the GLight we can reach them safely. Otherwise we can use ship hopping to keep our settlers safe (but not the ships).

Ship hopping? Do you mean we send an empty ship or two into unsafe waters and if one survives we move the ship with the settler there, transfer the settler and move the surviving ship forward to safety? This is legal? I don't see anything against it in the rule set, but thought it was an exploit for some reason.

Thanks for your estimates of when we'll finish the lighthouse and forbidden palace. While the lighthouse is not a game maker or breaker, having it would really allow us to relax (defense-wise) for quite a long time, exactly when we need time to develop. I say we should follow your plan and use the workers that will be coming from The Chamber to improve The Admiralty's tiles and then join workers to get it up to size 6. We really must do whatever we can to try to secure the lighthouse.
 
Donsig said:
Ship hopping? Do you mean we send an empty ship or two into unsafe waters and if one survives we move the ship with the settler there, transfer the settler and move the surviving ship forward to safety? This is legal? I don't see anything against it in the rule set, but thought it was an exploit for some reason.
I know this was very clearly discussed in the MTDG1 - and it was agreed to allow it. I'm pretty sure this just carried over to MTDG2. Logic went: if you can spare the shields, then why not allow it?

AutomatedTeller said:
Re: Sistine Chapel - Well, when I first started typing, i thought it didn't make any sense to do this. Now I'm not sure.
My thought's exactly!
Though, now I'm warming up to it more. I think Donsig captured my sentiments... it's too early to make a clear plan, but if all is going well still when we're getting near the end of the AA, then the Chapel is likely to be really appealing.


Donsig said:
We really must do whatever we can to try to secure the lighthouse
:agree: The more we talk about different things we'd like to do, the more important the Torch seems. Keeps us safe, keeps Republic costs down, secures us for some nice Wonder builds... it's a must have!
 
it's too early to make a clear plan, but if all is going well still when we're getting near the end of the AA, then the Chapel is likely to be really appealing.

I'm not too sure that we'll have a lot of time to deliberate, at least not if we really want to profit from this.
The Chapel is 600 shields and we cannot produce really high spt anywhere. The best option right now seems to be The Treasury, which could do 10 spt (net, from 13 spt raw) at size 6, working 2 bg's, the dyes, an irrigated plains, a mined hill and a mined iron hill. This will get better in Republic (20% waste, so 15 raw spt at size 6, leading to 12 net spt), and of course in Republic we can irrigate some grasslands and use more hills to increase production more - for example at size 7 we would get to 14 net spt (17 raw spt), at size 8: 15 net spt (19 raw spt), at size 9: 17 net spt (21 raw spt), etc. Of course such a large city would require a rather high setting of the lux slider, which might not be feasible.
Overall, I think a build time of about 50 turns would be rather fast, especially since The Treasury is not at size 6 yet. If we believe General_W's outline that we'll leave the AA around turn 100, and estimate 30 turns to obtain Mono + Theology, then this means we can start a prebuild around turn 80 to benefit maximally from this wonder. This is quite soon already.
Another issue is that the other teams may have the same considerations and thus it could be important to be first.
 
I'm not too sure that we'll have a lot of time to deliberate, at least not if we really want to profit from this.
The Chapel is 600 shields and we cannot produce really high spt anywhere. The best option right now seems to be The Treasury, which could do 10 spt (net, from 13 spt raw) at size 6, working 2 bg's, the dyes, an irrigated plains, a mined hill and a mined iron hill. This will get better in Republic (20% waste, so 15 raw spt at size 6, leading to 12 net spt), and of course in Republic we can irrigate some grasslands and use more hills to increase production more - for example at size 7 we would get to 14 net spt (17 raw spt), at size 8: 15 net spt (19 raw spt), at size 9: 17 net spt (21 raw spt), etc. Of course such a large city would require a rather high setting of the lux slider, which might not be feasible.
Overall, I think a build time of about 50 turns would be rather fast, especially since The Treasury is not at size 6 yet. If we believe General_W's outline that we'll leave the AA around turn 100, and estimate 30 turns to obtain Mono + Theology, then this means we can start a prebuild around turn 80 to benefit maximally from this wonder. This is quite soon already.
Another issue is that the other teams may have the same considerations and thus it could be important to be first.

:agree:

We need to decide sooner rather than later, as not only do we need to start the pre-build, we will need to give it some worker priority to bring it up to its potential.

Really do we have much to lose by trying for it in The Treasury? treasury is our main science city so we will want it at a larger size rather than building workers and settlers, the only other alternative it can be used for is military, however are we going to need much of a standing army before theology? (especially if we succeed in building TGLH)

This only leaves the cost (including opportunity cost) of building temples and cathedrals in our core cities, to answer this we need to look at what else we plan to build in our core cities, what else we could build in our core cities, along with projected growth and shield potential at the start of the middle ages.
 
Can we afford not to build temples and cathedrals anyway? I think not, not with this luxury scarceness. I think an early prebuild for the Chapel is in order, and if it doesn't work out we might be able to grab Bach's instead.
 
I am convinced! :)

We really need more workers first (imo) ... but I now agree that some of those workers should start laying the groundwork for a Chapel build in the Treasury... with a plan of starting the pre-build around turn 80, ala zyxy's analysis.
 
I will join in the Chapel consensus so long as we keep focused on the Great Lighthouse as our current primary goal and make suitable arrangements to beef up our workforce.

Regarding zyxy's analysis, it may not take us 30 turns to get to theology. We have a chance to get monotheism for free, which only makes starting this project early even more important!
 
Interesting discussons!

I guess the Lighthouse has to be pri 1, with the Chapel pri 2.

Do we have that many shields to spend on wonders though....?
I am sure we want Libs/Markets and later Unis....to be able to harvest our advantages of sci and comm. And to reap the benefits of the Chapel, we need temples and cathedrals. I guess our 2 lux only call for temples at a stage anyway (when in republic...)
 
I think there is quite little to build in The Treasury after the library. So I would suggest we do 0, 1 or at most 2 warriors after the lib, and then start on the Chapel.

One little issue: how do we persuade FREE that we should research along the upper path and they along the lower one?
 
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