How many civs are needed, for the civ switching, to work well, for the general public?

Actually that makes it less ahistorical. Horses are becoming a source of power in your civ, certain factions/leaders/generals push your civ into war to increase theit personal control on horses. When the crisis finally comes, these are the people whose ideas filter down to the rest of society.
By ahistorical in this case I just mean that no one in history could say to themselves "If only I could acquire one more horse, I could, in the next phase of my existence be [whole set of traits associated with game Mongolia]"
 
By ahistorical in this case I just mean that no one in history could say to themselves "If only I could acquire one more horse, I could, in the next phase of my existence be [whole set of traits associated with game Mongolia]"
It's no more "ahistorical" than someone in history saying to themselves, "if only I could find a supply of dark gray metal, I could eventually build this particular new weapon which no one has invented yet."
 
That 45 number is pure fantasy.

I wouldn't say pure fantasy given that we initially had reason to believe maybe 13-14 in the antiquity era. But it is...fantastical.

One bet I will make, is that we will get at least 11 civs per era. Ten or less would invite really easy press/reviews complaining that Civ VII launched with "half the civs of Humankind," which is hard to combat no matter how much better designed the civs are. I think 13, if they could reach that number, hits a nice balance of 2/3 of the HK launch count, which is a lot more navigable PR-wise.
 
I wouldn't say pure fantasy given that we initially had reason to believe maybe 13-14 in the antiquity era. But it is...fantastical.

One bet I will make, is that we will get at least 11 civs per era. Ten or less would invite really easy press/reviews complaining that Civ VII launched with "half the civs of Humankind," which is hard to combat no matter how much better designed the civs are. I think 13, if they could reach that number, hits a nice balance of 2/3 of the HK launch count, which is a lot more navigable PR-wise.
I don't mean "fantasy" in the sense of "impossible," but rather fantasy as in based purely on wishes and not any actual evidence.
 
I have heard (who knows how true it was) that in past civ games the leaders have been roughly half the development time of each civ for Firaxis. I can see why - the models are more detailed, much more animated, and need a full suite of voice acting, sometimes in completely dead languages! Just how they get writers and voice actors for something like Akkadian must take forever. So while Civ7 civs are far more complex than prior entries they are probably easier to implement than before making 30+ civs on launch possible.
 
Static assets are leagues easier to make than animated characters, for sure, even if they need "under construction" phases. The unique units might get unique animations but they will likely inherit some animations from the base units and will be invariably less detailed than the leaders.

Beyond that, a lot of the uniques per civ are just bonuses, either the base bonus, the civics, or the legacy policies. None of that is represented on the map to my knowledge.

Compared to Civ 5 and 6 where a leader was absolutely required, I'd be shocked if the workload was anywhere close for one in Civ 7 (discounting research and conceptual work, of course, which is much harder to give an armchair estimate for.)

Despite all that, there's still a lot of work per civ. It's really tough to guess, but I think a total in the 30s is very plausible based on the educated guesses in the speculation here.
 
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