bender19 said:
I didn't suggest they could occupy Jakarta, I specifically said invasion would be pointless. Precisely because we don't have power projection capabilities, nor the ability to occupy it. What we do have is more combat aircraft, frigates and submarines that are qualitatively superior, so should their be any battle we would win. Its possible that Indonesia would simply station its air and naval assets out of range and not contest any battles.
But we couldn't win that way! And its not possible, it's exactly what they would do and what they've been planning to do since 49' courtesy of Nasution.
bender19 said:
Why you assume the battles will be fought chasing Indonesia through the archipelago or in Jakarta I have no idea. Australia would never need to set foot in Jakarta to win a war.
How do you propose we win then?
bender19 said:
As I said IF the war is protracted such that peace wasn't easily possible. As for economic targets, even Indonesia has them. Knocking out power plants, hitting government buildings, bridges, port and air facilities and yes oil depots. Of course there would be civilian casualties there were thousands in WW2, Vietnam, Iraq etc, all wars Australia fought in, willpower wasn't insurmountable then. If Australia goes to war with Indonesia I'm assuming the reason is very serious and not some trivial misunderstanding. If you assume Australia doesn't have the willpower to fight then you essentially have assumed away the war in the first place.
Your talking about Australia the nation with the public who won't even support Iraq or Afghanistan after what a handful of casualties. No, we couldn't sustain the kind of war your talking about. We could sustain a limited naval war with some casualties but that's about it.
bender19 said:
You could play on the minor West Papuan independence movement. Its a region only annexed in 1969. The region contains a majority that ethnically Papuan, the majority are also Christian. There's a long history of resentment of Indonesia among the local populous. Its in range of Darwin for F18s and is on the eastern fringes of Indonesia. This would force Indonesia to either compete for the waters and air around the region and thus face annihilation or face an unsupported guerilla campaign against an Australian backed majority. The logistics would be cut off from the rest of Indonesia. We could send minor ground forces in eg SAS etc to train locals and arm them.
... sure, you could that but the West Papuan Independence movement is limited to protesting and taking pot shots at the police (badly). It wouldn't be able to do anything, it doesn't have weapons, doesn't have any real organization or experience and there's a large number of paramilitaries, secret policeman, army regulars and all sorts of other groups placed to control the populace by the TNI-AU. It is a province under the direct control of the military hierarchy afterall. The SAS might be able to make some areas no-go-zones for Indonesian forces but its a huge province area at 537345 square kilometers (Victoria for reference is 227,416 square kilometers) quite beyond their abilities to either A) range across or B) create any sort of general resistance. Assuming all the while that the latter is possible. I don't believe it is.
Why? Because the major population centers are majority Sundanese and Javanese now. Fully 25% of the population is Muslim and ~5% of the Christians in the twin provinces are Sulawesi Christians. The TNI-AU will just do what it did in Aceh, it'll arm the Sundanese and Javanese take them to a village in a rebellious district and have them clear it of life. All the rest of the villages in the district will be told to provide hostages from good families and if they don't then the same thing will happen to them. They'll be politely warned that any act of resistance by any member of the village will necessitate collective punishment of the village - not limited to the outright massacre of the male population and the destruction of the village. The terror will then be maintained by extra-judicial killings, random acts of violence, the destruction of centers of worship and manner of other acts of violence calculated to ensure compliance.
bender19 said:
The threat of loosing the province and mounting losses would force Indonesia to the table, thus obtaining a pointless military victory.
Besides, you've just provided the rationale for why a general uprising would never happen. Australia would cut and run leaving all the Papuans to the TNI's embrace. They'd ban the media and get to the job of punishing 'terrorists' by massacring the population. The Papuans know what the consequences would be and that's why they don't even try.
bender19 said:
Indonesia isn't 100% united, East Timor demonstrates this, its held together by force.
... there's not serious threat to its internal stability at this present moment.
bender19 said:
Most minor modern wars don't end in total conquest, ala American style, most take a few weeks or months, they accomplish limited goals before one side realizes its loosing and peace is negotiated. If you think this wouldn't force an Indonesian capitulation then essentially its a long drawn out war taking years, in which case both countries would mobilize their resources. In the long term Australia has substantially greater resources.
You've misunderstood me, we're not capable of winning. In the short or long term. The best that could be done is well nothing.
bender19 said:
The Anzac class frigates each took a year from being laid down till being launched, another 2-3 years before being commissioned. There's no hurry to build these ships in peace time, to maintain capacity its best to spread the project life time out, otherwise we'd build a class of ships for 2-3 years then wait 20 years to build the next class, the hiring and firing and short term nature of workers would be idiotic. In total war Australia I think you could go from laid down to commissioned in about a year for a class of ship you've already built multiple times. As long as you don't dick about tinkering, in a war environment you don't have the luxury. As for aircraft we can buy them off allies. I'm sure there'd be enough conservatives in the US industrial military complex willing to sell arms to Australia to fight a Muslim nation.
I'm sure you would find that war isn't going to last that long. It would be a come as you are war.
