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Hurricane Felix

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Quasar1011, Sep 2, 2007.

  1. Cheezy the Wiz

    Cheezy the Wiz Socialist In A Hurry

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    It's named after a cat, fool!
     
  2. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    heh, a male cat though
     
  3. Evie

    Evie Pronounced like Eevee

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    Which, combined with the fact that in the hurricane community, category is often abbreviated "cat", gives you an idea what is the new most tired joke in the hurricane community (the old one being walking on sunshine jokes with regard to Katrina two years ago)
     
  4. SonicX

    SonicX Chieftain

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    As long as there won't be a (super)Sonic Hurricane
     
  5. Quasar1011

    Quasar1011 King of Sylvania

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    HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
    500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

    FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
    MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
    EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
    MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
    OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB.
    MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
    WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
    SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.

    THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
    280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
    BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
    THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
    GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
    RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
    THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
    CAMPECHE. WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
    TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
    FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
    CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
    COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
    TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
    NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
    WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
    INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
    OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
    COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
    FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
    FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.1N 75.9W 145 KT
    12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W 150 KT
    24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W 145 KT
    36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W 125 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W 100 KT
    72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND
    96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W 65 KT
    120HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND

    -------------------------------------------
    The "spaghetti diagram", or plot of predictions of the path of Felix, made by various computer models (plus extrapolation in black; the official NHC forecast is the solid red line):
     

    Attached Files:

  6. SonicX

    SonicX Chieftain

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    Would it actually be possible a hurricane to cross mexico and continue a bit in the pacific ?
     
  7. Ansar

    Ansar Détente avec l'été

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    Wow! The hurricane is awesome!
     
  8. BirraImperial

    BirraImperial Pura Vida!

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    Great, just what we needed...more rain. Like all the flooding right now isn't enough, now Felix is going straight into Honduras. Lucky me, at least we're not taking a direct hit.
     
  9. BirraImperial

    BirraImperial Pura Vida!

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    Highly unlikely. Hurricanes weaken a lot once they hit the main land, so by the time it crosses Mexico, it would be a tropical depression or even weaker.
     
  10. Red Door

    Red Door Man of Mayhem

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    As Birra said, it's possible for it to go back into the Pacific Ocean as a Tropical Depression and re-gain strength, but highly unlikely.
     
  11. Ginger_Ale

    Ginger_Ale Lurker Retired Moderator

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    It's happened a few times. Check out this Wikipedia article that shows a list of Atlantic-Pacific hurricanes (and maps of their paths).
     
  12. Evie

    Evie Pronounced like Eevee

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    There are two separate possibilities. Either a hurricane fails to dissipate over land, and emerge as a full hurricane in the Pacific (extremely rare), r else a hurricane does dissipate over land, BUT what remains of it (ie, large area of clouds, low pressure, etc), threatens to re-form once it hits the Pacific.

    Dean DID succeed at the later earlier this year. It didn't actually re-form, but it certainly threatened to do so in the Pacific. (It would have done so under a different name, however).
     
  13. SonicX

    SonicX Chieftain

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    Hmm, too bad. I wanted to see one that kept strengthening over the Pacific :D
    If they cross over at Panama, Costa Rica or perhaps Nicaragua, it's possible :D
     
  14. BirraImperial

    BirraImperial Pura Vida!

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    Errr... I hope that doesn't happen anytime soon. :lol:
     
  15. Evie

    Evie Pronounced like Eevee

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    Hurricane Felix has now made landfall, as a deadly category 5 hurricane.

    This is the second time in 2007 an hurricane make landfall at category 5.

    This is the first time on record that two hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic as category 5 storms in the same year.
     

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