Hurricane Felix

It's named after a cat, fool!

 

heh, a male cat though

 

Which, combined with the fact that in the hurricane community, category is often abbreviated "cat", gives you an idea what is the new most tired joke in the hurricane community (the old one being walking on sunshine jokes with regard to Katrina two years ago)

 

As long as there won't be a (super)Sonic Hurricane

 

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
BE A LITTLE FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.1N 75.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 78.7W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W 125 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 95.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND

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The "spaghetti diagram", or plot of predictions of the path of Felix, made by various computer models (plus extrapolation in black; the official NHC forecast is the solid red line):

 

Would it actually be possible a hurricane to cross mexico and continue a bit in the pacific ?

 

Wow! The hurricane is awesome!

 

Great, just what we needed...more rain. Like all the flooding right now isn't enough, now Felix is going straight into Honduras. Lucky me, at least we're not taking a direct hit.

 

Highly unlikely. Hurricanes weaken a lot once they hit the main land, so by the time it crosses Mexico, it would be a tropical depression or even weaker.

 

As Birra said, it's possible for it to go back into the Pacific Ocean as a Tropical Depression and re-gain strength, but highly unlikely.

 

It's happened a few times. Check out this Wikipedia article that shows a list of Atlantic-Pacific hurricanes (and maps of their paths).

 

There are two separate possibilities. Either a hurricane fails to dissipate over land, and emerge as a full hurricane in the Pacific (extremely rare), r else a hurricane does dissipate over land, BUT what remains of it (ie, large area of clouds, low pressure, etc), threatens to re-form once it hits the Pacific.

Dean DID succeed at the later earlier this year. It didn't actually re-form, but it certainly threatened to do so in the Pacific. (It would have done so under a different name, however).

 

Hmm, too bad. I wanted to see one that kept strengthening over the Pacific
If they cross over at Panama, Costa Rica or perhaps Nicaragua, it's possible

 

Errr... I hope that doesn't happen anytime soon.

 

Hurricane Felix has now made landfall, as a deadly category 5 hurricane.

This is the second time in 2007 an hurricane make landfall at category 5.

This is the first time on record that two hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic as category 5 storms in the same year.