Hurricane Felix

Quasar1011

Quasar1011

King of Sylvania
Joined
May 17, 2003
Messages
2,968
Location
California
Or, just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water off the Yucatan... another category 5 hurricane is lurking out there! When I looked at the data 2 days ago, the NHC (National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida) projected Felix to peak at a category 2 or 3 storm. I've said this before: the NHC does better with a storm's path, than it does with its intensity.

Anyway, here is the projected path of Felix:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?5day?large
 
This is bloody ridiculous!

1988=1 cat. 5
1991=1 cat. 5
1998=1 cat. 5
2003=1 cat. 5
2004=1 cat. 5
2005=3 cat. 5
2007=2 cat. 5

Previously we haven't had more than 1 cat 5 in a year since 1911 iirc.
I know hurricanes go in cycles etc. But there is no way in hell, you can say this is just a cycle... Cycles last 10-15 years, but this is the worst by far since 1850 when we began recording them... While it is by no means the whole picture, there is no bloody way you can claim global warming doesn't have something to do with this.
 
Looks like 1 in ever 3 so far this year is a biggie
(and we already have G forming as a storm)

A
B
C
D <- Cat 5
E
F <- Cat 5
 
I'm surprised people in hurricane zones haven't build concrete houses and underground power lines enmasse yet.
 
nc-1701 said:
This is bloody ridiculous!

1988=1 cat. 5
1991=1 cat. 5
1998=1 cat. 5
2003=1 cat. 5
2004=1 cat. 5
2005=3 cat. 5
2007=2 cat. 5

Previously we haven't had more than 1 cat 5 in a year since 1911 iirc.
I know hurricanes go in cycles etc. But there is no way in hell, you can say this is just a cycle... Cycles last 10-15 years, but this is the worst by far since 1850 when we began recording them... While it is by no means the whole picture, there is no bloody way you can claim global warming doesn't have something to do with this.
Click to expand...

Oh get off it with the global warming schtick already. Your list is terrible evidence that global warming is affecting anything. How about compiling a list of all the tropical depressions that have formed and their peak intensity plotted against average temperature during hurricane season for each year. Do it over a scale that predates the industrial revolution. Then get back to us.

It's a bit abnormal that the storms are growing so large over the last few years, yes, but that's not proper evidence for anything.
 
Mango said:
Oh get off it with the global warming schtick already. Your list is terrible evidence that global warming is affecting anything. How about compiling a list of all the tropical depressions that have formed and their peak intensity plotted against average temperature during hurricane season for each year. Do it over a scale that predates the industrial revolution. Then get back to us.

It's a bit abnormal that the storms are growing so large over the last few years, yes, but that's not proper evidence for anything.
Click to expand...

Oh, I know this isn't real evidence for anything... But if deniers won't accept real research that's already been done regarding global tempatures...
Then the only way to deal with things is just to spray random . .. .. .. ....

I mean come on, if we can agrreee on one things it's that whatever the reason this is NOT normal...
iirc there has not been a major increase in total hurricanes Not counting 2005), but there HAS been a huge change in the number of high inesity hurricanes... I really don't feel like making a graph for right now, but if you want just look at Record of all hurricanes since 1858
 
What about the hurricanes before 1858?
 
leonel said:
What about the hurricanes before 1858?
Click to expand...

That's when records begin, before that there was no agency or whatever to track them. So we don't have reliable records.
 
NC, that's because most of the hurricanes in the past two years have taken the path that leads into either the Gulf of Mexico or the Yucatan, both of which are paths that take you through very hot water for longer periods of time (the water temperature right now off the coast of Aruba is ~90 degree F!). In previous years, more hurricanes did the sweep up into either Florida or North Carolina, skirting the Eastern Coast. The water gets colder faster that way, and thus you have weaker hurricanes.
 
This is only the fourth recorded season with more than one category 5 hurricanes.

And the really impressive part is this, really :

Sunday

02AM : Category 1
05AM : Category 2
08AM : Category 2
11AM : Category 2
02PM : Category 3
05PM : Category 4
08PM : Category 5

This is called rapid intensification. And it still has a LOOOOOT of warm water to go over.
 
@Cheezy Not really most hurricanes are on the gulf, and carribean in all years... It's really quite rare (comparatively) for the Carolinas to ge hit.

Anyway to stay on topic this is crazy, there predictig it to peak at 150 Knots... Considering yesterday they were predicting it to peak at like 120 knots... There's really no telling, (it's 135 knots atm). The prediction for right now was like 110 Knots...
I just feel sorry for the yucatan, and it appears whatever Felix hits is screwed way worse than New Orleans...:(
 
nc-1701 said:
Oh, I know this isn't real evidence for anything... But if deniers won't accept real research that's already been done regarding global tempatures...
Then the only way to deal with things is just to spray random . .. .. .. ....

I mean come on, if we can agrreee on one things it's that whatever the reason this is NOT normal...
iirc there has not been a major increase in total hurricanes Not counting 2005), but there HAS been a huge change in the number of high inesity hurricanes... I really don't feel like making a graph for right now, but if you want just look at Record of all hurricanes since 1858
Click to expand...

The National Hurricane Center used to have useful data neatly tabulated and easily assessable on their site but no longer. :( So I had to do some deeper searching and found the information I wanted.



Source

Edit: Note that recent times have been active in terms of hurricanes but at a scale comparable with previous years and centuries. Also before radar, aeroplanes, satellites, etc. hurricanes and other storms would have to hit somewhere important to be sure to be recorded. Nowadays every storm is plastered over the news with graphic satellite images which makes recent hurricane seasons seem worse.
 
nc-1701 said:
@Cheezy Not really most hurricanes are on the gulf, and carribean in all years... It's really quite rare (comparatively) for the Carolinas to ge hit.

Anyway to stay on topic this is crazy, there predictig it to peak at 150 Knots... Considering yesterday they were predicting it to peak at like 120 knots... There's really no telling, (it's 135 knots atm). The prediction for right now was like 110 Knots...
I just feel sorry for the yucatan, and it appears whatever Felix hits is screwed way worse than New Orleans...:(
Click to expand...

Actually North Carolina was, for a long time, the third most frequently hit state. I believe Louisianna has passed it now, but it's still right up there. Florida and Texas are the leaders by far, but their coastline is much larger too. We tend to get anything that shoots North of Florida, but recently there haven't been any to come our way.
 
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