Note: This forecast is unofficial, and is NOT from the National Hurricane Center. See our disclaimer.
After weakening some overnight, Isabel is definately holding its own this afternoon. Upper level outflow is outstanding to the east, but not quite as impressive in the other quadrants. Nonetheless, water vapor imagery shows the outflow is still improving, mainly to the north with the shortwave trough in an aiding position. Earlier in the day, there was quite a bit of dry air entrainment in the center from the southwest, which kept it partially opened. Since then, convection has wrapped around the entire center, and the small pockets of dry air within the convection have dissapeared. Along with more wrapping, the convection itself is a lot less ragged, though is showing no signs of deepening yet. Data from a reconassiance aircraft reflect on Isabel's improving organization, but found that the maximum sustained winds remain near 90 knots.
Additional strengthening is expected. SHIPS now shows some slight intensification, a bit of a change from its past runs in calling for weakening. The majority of the global models indicate that the shear pattern will set up to favor even better outflow in all quadrants, which would in turn lead to strengthening provided the core is fully recovered. Earlier in the day I would have been skeptical on whether Isabel's core would recover or not, but the question is irrelavant. As mentioned above, convection is now blossoming over Isabel's center, a sure sign of core recovery. This will allow the expected improved outflow pattern to influence Isabel's intensity. Additionally, Hurricane Heat Potential is higher ahead of Isabel, which also favors deepening. Sea surface temperatures are plenty warm except right off the east coast, where Isabel will move in the coming two days. I do not expect these cooler temperatures to play a major role in Isabel's intensity simply because their overall coverage is small, and since Isabel will be speeding by the time it passes over, the time spent over them is reduced even more. Based on the current organization, heat potential, and anticipated shear pattern, strengthening back to a category 3 hurricane is in the forecast.
The future track of Isabel is becoming clearer. Nearly all of the global and tropical models are converged on a continued motion to the north-northwest through the next 24 hours or so, followed by a bend more to the northwest afterwards. Isabel is being influenced by a shortwave trough, but an area of high pressure is already building to the north, which will prevent a turn out to sea. This high pressure is actually what will curve Isabel to the northwest as it makes landfall. Based on model guidance and the current synoptic pattern, a landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina is expected. From there, a track through the northeastern part of the state, probably midway between Rocky Mount and Raleigh. From there, Isabel will weaken rapidly into a remnant extratropical low as it moves through central Virginia and up further north.
All residents living along the North Carolina coastline should have already evacuated or prepared for Isabel. Stay tuned to local weather statements from complete safety precautions.
Forecast Intensity:
00 hours: 90 knots
12 hours: 95 knots
24 hours: 100 knots
36 hours: 105 knots
48 hours: 105 knots (approaching land)
72 hours: 30 knots (inland)
96 hours: 30 (inland and extratropical)
120 hours: (absorbed by low)
Forecast Track
