Iran; 10 nukes; what changes?

Really, in a world where there are 500,000 global homicides a year mostly single murders by single individuals you can unequivocally state the nobody will take that risk?
By nobody I meant leaders of influencial countries, powerful enough to start aggression against such countries as Iran, DPRK or Israel. There is no 100% guarantee of course, but usually leaders are more or less sane people. That's how MAD works.

I hold that the chance of use of nuclear weapons in the future is no less than 100% firm.
Hope you are wrong.

The former chief of the Mossad just said that a strike would be a bad idea because the Iranians were rational in their own way. So was Hitler, I don't get his point.
Even Hitler wouldn't attack Israel if he knew that one hour after his attack Germany will cease to exist.
 
10 nukes isn't even a proper deterrent anyway, it could be wiped out with some massive pre-emptive nuking.

If ten nukes are placed in ten different locations and 100's of fake nukes are hidden as well they would be hard to destroy.

As for delivery systems there are many possibilities.
- one man submarine waits in choke point like straits of Hormuz for target to get within range and detonates
- leapfrogging nukes; as in detonate a nuke 5 miles away from target to destroy defense systems with EMP blast then a jet or missile could get cloase enough to destroy target
- etc.

If invaded there would be no shortfall of Iranians willing to give their lives to get a nuke in range of a carrier strike group, military base or enemy capitol.
 
In case of USSR/Russia, nuclear weapons serve their purpose perfectly.
Seeing as how the Soviet Union doesn't exist any more, that's obviously not true.

It is true that we didn't destroy the USSR militarily. Doesn't matter. We destroyed it with other weapons instead--and the USSR didn't have the gumption to fire nukes in retaliation.

We were involved IIRC in about 7 major military conflicts on our territory in first half of XX century and zero in second half.
That holds true for a bunch of other nations in Europe as well--and none of them had nuclear weapons. In addition to beating up on Russia, various nations in Europe also had a long history of beating up on each other. In the second half of that century, that stopped. At least, in Europe.

World War II caused a fundamental shift in thinking in Europe and the United States; we don't conquer for territory any more. Yes, the rest of Europe decided to stop beating up on Russia--but nukes aren't the reason. The change in mindset is.

:)
You don't have a slightest idea about state of Russian army today.
Its nuclear potential is arguably the best in the world, and certainly comparable to the American one.
That's true of Russia's civilian nuclear program.

Russia's military nuclear program is a mess.

It was not Cuban decision. Khruschev removed Soviet missiles from Cuba, when Kennedy agreed to remove Jupiter missiles from Turkey in exchange. You obviously know this.
Oh, yeah. I stand corrected.

THE SOVIET UNION folded.

He simply didn't want to start WW3 over Cuba issue
Exactly. The United States looked Russia in the eye and said "go ahead, push The Button, I dare you" and Russia blinked. Russia's nuclear deterrent failed. The strategic equation is kind of assymetrical in that way; U.S. nuclear deterrent does work on most external threats, but foreign nuclear deterrence against the U.S., surprisingly, does not. :)
 
Seeing as how the Soviet Union doesn't exist any more, that's obviously not true.
If its not true, please show me when and how USSR was invaded and suffered military defeat, after 1949. Nukes are not supposed to protect the country from any other threats, except military ones.

It is true that we didn't destroy the USSR militarily. Doesn't matter. We destroyed it with other weapons instead--and the USSR didn't have the gumption to fire nukes in retaliation.
USSR was dismantled by voluntary decision of Yeltsin, Kravchuk and Shushkevich, nobody forced them to do it. Russia became legal successor of the USSR, retain independence and ability to incinerate whole US territory in a matter of minutes. If it's victory for the US, it is kind of ... incomplete :)

That holds true for a bunch of other nations in Europe as well--and none of them had nuclear weapons. In addition to beating up on Russia, various nations in Europe also had a long history of beating up on each other. In the second half of that century, that stopped. At least, in Europe.

World War II caused a fundamental shift in thinking in Europe and the United States; we don't conquer for territory any more. Yes, the rest of Europe decided to stop beating up on Russia--but nukes aren't the reason. The change in mindset is.
Any major war in Europe in second half of XX century would be a conflict between NATO and Warsaw pact. It didn't happen exactly because it would turn to global nuclear war.

That's true of Russia's civilian nuclear program.
Russia's military nuclear program is a mess.
:eek: Did you see my link?
Why would military program be a bigger mess than civilian one?
What do you smo.. I mean, where did you get this information?

Exactly. The United States looked Russia in the eye and said "go ahead, push The Button, I dare you" and Russia blinked. Russia's nuclear deterrent failed. The strategic equation is kind of assymetrical in that way; U.S. nuclear deterrent does work on most external threats, but foreign nuclear deterrence against the U.S., surprisingly, does not. :)
I like this measurement contest :)
So, why the United States blinked in 2008, when Russia said "go ahead, push The Button, I dare you"?
 
Meanwhile, gasoline costs about $1,000 dollars a gallon, if you can get it at all, and people think of the economy as that thing that used to allow us to live like kings, way back in the day.

Eh, you'd just have rationing and nationalization. There's no real threat to the oil supply, just the world cheap oil built.
 
If its not true, please show me when and how USSR was invaded and suffered military defeat
1989-1991. The revolutions that disintegrated the Soviet Union did include shooting. Romania being a notable example.

Nukes are not supposed to protect the country from any other threats, except military ones.
Nuclear weapons do not protect against military attack by the United States.

Any major war in Europe in second half of XX century would be a conflict between NATO and Warsaw pact.
World history says the opposite. Before World War II, the various nations of Europe fought each other all the time. England vs. Spain, England vs. France, France vs. Spain. Germany in the Thirty Years' War. And lots of others.

You're neglecting the fact that most members of NATO have fought each other in the past. Most of the wars fought between European powers in the past were between nations that never have been, and currently are not, nuclear powers. Your argument doesn't hold any water because there's no nuclear deterrent preventing these nations from attacking each other again.

It was the shock and horror of World War II that did it. The mindset changed.


What do you smo.. I mean, where did you get this information?
Yeah.....I don't appreciate that first bit. I think we're done.
 
They wouldn't use them unless they were attacked, as several others have stated

The idea of being seen as a hawk makes my skin crawl, but I don't know if I'm so confident in this.

Iran + Nukes=???

I'd rather this remained a mystery, frankly.
 
1989-1991. The revolutions that disintegrated the Soviet Union did include shooting.
Is this suppose to be a proof that nuclear weapons don't protect the country from military invasion?

Romania being a notable example.
Romania has never been a part of the USSR. Get some basic history classes.

Nuclear weapons do not protect against military attack by the United States.
History shows that they do. I asked you for counterexamples, which you failed to provide.

World history says the opposite. Before World War II, the various nations of Europe fought each other all the time. England vs. Spain, England vs. France, France vs. Spain. Germany in the Thirty Years' War. And lots of others.

You're neglecting the fact that most members of NATO have fought each other in the past. Most of the wars fought between European powers in the past were between nations that never have been, and currently are not, nuclear powers. Your argument doesn't hold any water because there's no nuclear deterrent preventing these nations from attacking each other again.

It was the shock and horror of World War II that did it. The mindset changed.
The world is indeed changed and wars between European states are now much less likely for many reasons. For example because of integration in EU and NATO. But not because of "shock and horror of WW2" - horrors of previous wars never prevented new wars from happening. Anyway, for Russia it doesn't change the situation as much as for EU states - it is not part of EU, and NATO was anti-Russian (or anti-Soviet, which is the same) sinse its creation. Yes, Europe is less aggressive for the last 50 years, but Russia borders with non-European countries as well. And we have the US, which is why we retain 2000+ warheads.

Yeah.....I don't appreciate that first bit.
Then don't write nonsense.
 
Wasn't the removal of the Jupiter missiles just an excercise in saving face for domestic consumption ? I thought that the crisis is generally viewed as a humiliation for Kruschev and even played a role in his downfall?
Not sure about that. If I remember correctly, the fact that the US removed those missiles from Turkey wasn't disclosed for pretty long time after Cuban crisis - may be that's the reason why it was viewed as humiliation for Khruschev.

As for saving face for domestic consumption, in USSR it was not needed. People didn't have access to foreign media, if something wasn't shown on Soviet TV or printed in newspapers, people simply would not know it. (I'm a bit oversimplifying here, but in general, "saving face" inside the country was much less important back then, than it is now)
 
Then don't write nonsense.
Took the words right outta my mouth.

Remember: in most arguments, the Other Guy generally thinks that same way about the stuff you write. If he didn't, there wouldn't be an argument.

Before I depart, I do need to say one thing:
History shows that they do. I asked you for counterexamples, which you failed to provide.
I provided two examples. Cuba and Pakistan.
 
Remember: in most arguments, the Other Guy generally thinks that same way about the stuff you write. If he didn't, there wouldn't be an argument.
For me this is not true. I usually avoid conversation with people who write outright nonsense. In this case I called nonsense one your particular statement - that Russian nuclear military program is in much worse condition than civilian one, and asked where did you get that information.

I provided two examples. Cuba and Pakistan.
Neither one was a victim of US aggression.
Cuba in addition was (and is) a non-nuclear state. The same situation as with Turkey - presense of foreign country's military base with nuclear weapons doesn't make Cuba, Turkey or Italy a nuclear power.
 
In this case I called nonsense one your particular statement - that Russian nuclear military program is in much worse condition than civilian one, and asked where did you get that information.
The daily paper.

Did you see me ask you for proof of your position? No. I took you at your word; you see it differently than I do, I understand that. I expect the same in return.

Neither one was a victim of US aggression.
YES, they both were. Bay of Pigs and the Beatdown on Osama bin Laden. Though the Bay of Pigs is really small potatoes compared to the fact that the U.S. was ready to go nuclear if the missiles weren't pulled out of Cuba. You can't get much bigger than nuclear aggression without upgrading to black hole projectors and spacetime disruption cannons (we're still working on those).
 
Did you see me ask you for proof of your position?
Well, I would expect you to do it, if you don't agree with me. I even gave one link (to the site of Federation of American Scientists :)) without you asking. But ok, if you don't want to discuss it anymore, let's forget about it.
YES, they both were. Bay of Pigs and the Beatdown on Osama bin Laden.
Look, you are not addressing my point. The point is that any country possessing enough nuclear potential to hit aggressors mainland with at least several warheads is almost 100% safe from attack of this aggressor.
Bay of pigs has nothing to do with this statement, simply because Cuba didn't have nuclear weapons to retaliate, and also was not supposed to, because it was not an attack of US army.
Though the Bay of Pigs is really small potatoes compared to the fact that the U.S. was ready to go nuclear if the missiles weren't pulled out of Cuba.
Simple question: Why the US didn't demand USSR to stop providing Vietnam with SAMs which were shooting down American planes? To stop helping North Korea in Korean war? To dismantle Warsaw Pact? It was so easy if deterrence works one way only - threaten to "go nuclear" and USSR will fold.

And, BTW, what is the reason in your opinion that nuclear deterrence doesn't work against USA? Because of sheer awesomeness of American nation, or there are other reasons?
 
Look, you are not addressing my point. The point is that any country possessing enough nuclear potential to hit aggressors mainland with at least several warheads is almost 100% safe from attack of this aggressor.
Yeah, it's a good thing that that India and Pakistan were too afraid of each other's nukes to go to war in 1999.
 
Yeah, it's a good thing that that India and Pakistan were too afraid of each other's nukes to go to war in 1999.
Thank you. The Kargil war solves my disagreement with Red Elk rather nicely.

And, according to Wikipedia, that's not the first time it's happened. Apparently there have been two direct wars between nuclear powers, though I haven't figured out what the second one was.

Edit: aha. Apprently Russia vs. China.

Look, you are not addressing my point. The point is that any country possessing enough nuclear potential to hit aggressors mainland with at least several warheads is almost 100% safe from attack of this aggressor.
And Dachs and I disproved your point with counterexamples. Your point is disproven. The end.

Simple question: Why the US didn't demand USSR to stop providing Vietnam with SAMs which were shooting down American planes?
No idea. But you asked the wrong question. The correct question is: what would the USSR have done if the United States had threatened to go nuclear? You might be better-qualified than most to answer that (you've hinted that you are/were Russian, but I make no assumptions about where CFC-ers live in the real world).

And, BTW, what is the reason in your opinion that nuclear deterrence doesn't work against USA? Because of sheer awesomeness of American nation, or there are other reasons?
None of those. It's another reason entirely. It's because everybody else on the planet is even more scared of wars involving America than America's own citizens are. We can do pretty much what we want, because nobody else on the planet is willing to push The Button. Bad poker analogy: when you know your opponents don't have the nerve to call a bluff, the table is yours.

Side note: seeing as how the U.S. probably already has a functional SDI satellite system in geosynchronous orbit over it, firing nuclear missiles at the U.S. is probably pointless anyway.
 
Thank you. The Kargil war solves my disagreement with Red Elk rather nicely.
...
Edit: aha. Apprently Russia vs. China.
Well, if you want to consider these conflicts as wars, it proves the point which is directly opposite of yours.
It shows that Pakistan and China are less susceptible to nuclear deterrence, than USA. (Or less sane :))
Because unlike them, USA never tried to attack its nuclear neighbor.

What would the USSR have done if the United States had threatened to go nuclear? You might be better-qualified than most to answer that
Depends over what. If you demanded to stop helping Vietnam during war, it would be refused. I'm sure you didn't enjoy losing that war against 3-rd world state and if all what was required to prevent Soviet help to them, was threatening USSR with nuclear war, you would do this immediately.

We can do pretty much what we want, because nobody else on the planet is willing to push The Button.
Try to throw a single bomb on Chinese city. Or Russian. Or invade Belorussia.
You may also demand back your property, captured by Russia during Georgian war and threaten to "go nuclear"
Spoiler :
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Good luck with this :)
 
Well, if you want to consider these conflicts as wars, it proves the point which is directly opposite of yours.
Wrong. You claimed nuclear weapons deter military attack. Counterexamples were posted. Claim disproved.

Try to throw a single bomb on Chinese city. Or Russian. Or invade Belorussia.
Why should we?? None of those knuckleheads ever did anything to us that warrants a nuclear threat. Cuba and the Soviet Union did--but only once. Soviet missiles on Cuban soil would have been a direct military threat to the entire United States. That was a big deal.
 
It was such a big deal you liberated about a square mile of Cuban beach for around 15 minutes. USA #1.
 
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