http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html
These are the latest forecast from the closest thing to a Canadian 538 for the Alberta provincial elections, today.
Yes, Alberta. Yes, the New Democrats look like they might form a majority government there, after 40+ years of conservative party rule. Yes, in US terms, it's kind of like Texas deciding to elect Bernie Sanders governor.
I don't know yet how it's going, since the polls haven't closed yet. It's not too long now, though.
I voted last week by special ballot, since I've got mobility issues and am absolutely not up to the hassles of polling stations (the one where I voted in the last provincial election didn't even have chairs for anyone but the workers - a definite
since it puts hardship on physically-challenged voters).
I guess it's no secret around here after all these years; I've stated outright that I've never voted for a right-wing party in my life, and never will. Yes, that means I'm part of a political minority in this part of the province, since you could run a mosquito or toadstool in Red Deer for the Conservatives and it would probably get elected. I had briefly considered the Liberals this time since I know the local candidate... but he's also running for the Greens at the same time (sounds bizarre, but it's allowed if both parties agree) and his party leader authorized robocalls that included the equivalent of telephone attack ads.
Awesome, Alberta is considered to be a conservative bastion of conservativeness.
I wonder what impact this might have on the federal election, if any? I know nothing about Albertan politics.
Mulcair is pleased with the polls here. And Rachel Notley is intelligent, and comes with a political pedigree that other leaders lack: she's the daughter of a former NDP party leader here, Grant Notley. He was well-respected, but unfortunately he died in a plane crash many years ago.
It's more accurate to say that Central Alberta (where I am) and the rural areas are "Conservative bastions." Edmonton is a tossup, and Calgary... well, that's still considered Ralph Klein's turf (even though he's dead and some people still worship him for reasons I can't fathom). It's interesting that his daughter openly endorses the NDP.
Is it common for Canuckistani provinces to have such disparate-looking local and federal level representation, or is this a leading indicator for October? If the NDP sweeps this election, should we expect them to win the upcoming federal elections?
And what the hell happened to the local Liberal Party? 0 seats projected?
First... Yes, it can be common, except in the case of Alberta when the Conservatives are running things (or more accurate the Reform/Alliance pretending to be Conservatives, as it is today).
I remember back in the '80s, when the federal Liberals were still the older generation (Jean Chretien, for example). I had no particular qualms about voting Liberal federally, depending on who the local candidate was and if the NDP had policies/candidates/leaders I liked more. But back then you could not have paid me to vote Liberal provincially. Not after the fiasco that occurred on Thanksgiving weekend when their leadership convention and our science fiction convention ended up in the same hotel and my suite was next door to their outgoing leader's suite. Damn, they were obnoxious.
As for what happened to the Liberals now... they haven't had a credible leader for awhile, and Prentice deliberately called this election while they didn't have any leader. The guy who's leading them now is only interim, until they can hold a proper leadership convention. So they're disorganized and weren't able to find enough candidates to field one in every riding.
BTW, calling an election while your opponents' party(ies) are leaderless may seem strategically sound, but it's considered really tacky and dishonorable. And it can backfire, which is what happened federally when Trudeau came back after Joe Clark's minority government fell. Trudeau had stepped down but there wasn't time to hold a leadership convention before the Conservatives' budget was defeated. So Trudeau came back... and won.
I *suspect* Albertans, or rather those Albertans whose vote has swung to the provincial NDP for this election, are largely frustrated with provincial conservative mismanagement, while Harper has not suffered from the same backlash. And the provincial scene in Alberta has a disunited right (Wildrose + Conservative) versus a united left (NDP alone, with the provincial liberals largely irrelevant), while the federal scene is the other way around (disunited left - NDP/Liberals and even sometime the Green getting enough votes to spoil the game, plus the Bloc tending more left than right - versus united right).
Plus, while the provincial NDP is one thing, the federal NDP suffers from being largely Quebec-based right now after the 2011 election. This is kind of a significant hurdle in Alberta right now.
I don't think the provincial result should be taken as indicative of a federal swing (sadly).
An NDP victory here would be considered an anomaly, not a sound prediction. But from what I've seen on the CBC.ca comment boards, there are a fair number of people who want Harper gone. That's a national site, though, so most of those comments are likely from the eastern provinces.
I think it's safe to say that some of the people switching from the Conservatives are doing so because it's the only way they can punish the party for Alison Redford's excesses. She's long gone now, so it's another case of "blame Kim Campbell for what Mulroney did." It would be hilarious if the results now matched what happened next in that case!
And yeah - we need to "unite the left" - in a way that doesn't leave things tainted like it was for the "unite the right" movement. That was accomplished with a lot of backroom shenanigans and outright lies. Harper's "Conservatives" are not the real Conservative party, just the Reform/Alliance under an alias.
So, this might be a dumb question, but where do these hundred or so Liberal politicians come from that could win in the federal race? They obviously aren't being drawn from the ranks of the local government, they seem to be lucky to have a single seat. Is it possible the NDP will become the dominant left party in federal races now instead of the Liberals, given how strong they are in the provincial elections?
I assumed that Wildrose and the Greens were affiliated parties, but if they are splitting the local conservative vote, that makes a ton of sense.
The NDP rise federally was largely due to Quebec's dissatisfaction with the Bloc, plus Jack Layton's amazing charisma and vision. He would have made a wonderful Prime Minister. But sadly he died, and Mulcair just doesn't have what it takes to inspire people like that a second time. I rather suspect that I'll be voting for the Greens in the next federal election, because I do respect Elizabeth May's leadership.
The provincial Green party is so low-profile that I have no idea who the leader is or what they actually stand for. But if the local candidate is simultaneously running for the Liberals, I assume they're at least some variety of left-wing.
In general, the federal and provincial party are at arm's lengths to each other. It's entirely possible for the federal wing to have a lot of partisans and supporters, while the provincial wing does not).
Wildrose, as I understand it, is decidedly not Green. Wildrose is the "Conservatives aren't quite right enough" party with an added serving of strong provincialism (not separatism per se, just solid "Keep the other provinces out of our business". )
The Wildrose is presently suffering from the fact that their (now former) party leader and eight other MPs decided that after all the conservative weren't so bad and that they should totally cross the aisle to join them. they lost just a weeeeee bit of credibility that way.
EDIT: Also, it's highly possible that a federal party, or a member of a given federal party will support another party entirely at the provincial level. I can think of at least two provincial premiers who represented different parties provincially and federally (Bob Rae, former Ontario premier, who went from provincial NDP minister to federal liberal, and Jean Charest, former Quebec premier, who went from federal Progressive-Conservative cabinet minister to provincial Liberals premier. For that matter, there is Thomas Mulcair, former provincial cabinet minister in Quebec for the liberals who is now federal opposition leader for the federal NDP. Likewise, during the run-up to the last Alberta elections, it was noted that several wings of the federal conservative actually favored the Wildrose over the Conservatives.
Yeah, that batch of floor-crossing didn't impress anyone. Danielle Smith didn't even win the nomination in her riding. And while some people cross the floor because they genuinely feel that a different party is a better fit with their political philosophy, others do so only out of convenience or spite or opportunism (ie. Belinda Stronach who crossed the floor because she was promised a cabinet post).
This is the most fun I've ever had in an election.
So you didn't get a bazillion robocalls? Lucky you.
A forty-four year run doesn't sound like much fun in terms of elections at all. I love the ebb and flow of politics, but that sounds about as interesting as watching paint dry.
Most times I just shrugged, since the only thing that ever really changes is the premier and maybe a few top-tier cabinet ministers. It was funny, though, how Ralph Klein and some others maneuvered Stockwell Day out of provincial politics when he started to get a wee bit too popular for Klein's comfort. Day was promised all kinds of help, support, and advice, which of course dried up as soon as he'd packed his bags, left the province, and started his foray into federal politics.
