Spoiler :
Standard D1 Vote.vote: GamezRule
For being the last person not present
Tak's easy to lynch on D1. Doesn't want to lynch Tim.Unvote
vote: Takhisis
GamezRule has spoken up and that vote has done it’s job, I agree that Takhisis is acting a bit oddly and not really being super productive, so maybe the threat of lynch can help fix that. I’m not super keen on lynching Tim just yet, considering he’s at starting up conversations and at least playing the part of acting constructively.
Lots of summary. Doesn't peg anyone in this post.Quick read through the thread:
Aight, so first 3 pages are mostly just banter, random votes, and some meta-based speculation off of one or two posts, it helped get the conversation moving but no real hard information, could be active talkie townies, could be scum faking being a talking townie.
Page 4 is when things start getting interesting where Tim makes explicit he’s trying out a new strategy which raised suspicions and caused Tim to be the early lynch leader.
Page 5 is where Lord Argon made the really weird claim about being mortal enemies with someone illiterate. I’m not really sure what to make of that. One thing to note is that csargo made a public claim to being illiterate. At the end of Page 5 is where Tim dropped the his player-by-player analysis.
Page 6. Samson does that interesting analysis of the forum post numbering. Tim makes a bet that Visor is scum if he survives past night 2. Topsecret makes that post explicitly asking a few people for their opinions on other. Dolbster does some analysis—note he finds Tak towncore for being illiterate, which seems odd and might be either pointing-to or faking some private role information.
Page 7. Talk returns about who is/isn’t illiterate and what LA means about being enemies with an illiterate person. Tim thinks asking about everyone’s literacy is a distraction that wastes time, and wants to move onto more productive stuff. LA admits that the illiteracy thing was a day 1 shenanigan.
Page 8. LA says he’s pretty sure that the two admitted illiterates are on his side. Topsecret does an analysis of all players and Samson follows suit.
Page 9. Rakkoon wakes up and puts in two cents. Interesting to note that the people he thinks lean scummy share significant overlap with people topsecret thinks were acting townie. Tim gives a lynch list, also pretty opposed to what Rakkoon said.
Page 10. Tim & Visor do a bit of back-and-forth discussing leads and info
A few people stand out to me as a bit more suspicious than the rest. Lord Argon threw off discussion and caused a distraction with the illiterate targeting shenanigan. Tak has just been acting pretty bizarre, typing in all-caps and just generally making random, not-very-useful statements. Johanna only did one post but apparently that’s normal for him so I’ll defer to y’all. Rrr has also been pretty quiet so far. Golden Knight has very neatly talked a few times and shown activity without actually saying or contributing much, just some early banter and vote that followed a pressure lynch.
Rakkoon is interesting for having such an exactly contrary opinion and not really defending or arguing it. Any further in the game I’d probably see it as a red flag but on day 1 I’d consider having no opinion more suspicious than a contrary opinion. GamezRule has responded to the pressure lynch and claims to not really know what’s going on. I’m fine with him for now but if he doesn’t get caught up and start contributing then it’ll begin to look really suspicious.
Everyone else has kept up enough talking and analysis that I wouldn’t really want to lynch them day 1 without a clear and solid case against them.
post accidentally sent early, will follow up with rest
Calls GR, Csargo, and me out. Low-hanging fruit, especially at this point.LordArgon - the early shenanigans were a bit odd, though apparently this is pretty typical from him. has mostly leveled out and started contributing now. The second person to vote for Rakkoon and get that wagon rolling. looking back at that vote, I don't like how he called out Rakkoon for "horrible logic" but didn't actually explicitly give an example in-post. one of the most suspicious
Topsecret - feeling mixed signals. on one hand, has been willing to make reads and give analysis of players, on the other hand, I don't quite buy the complaints about not being trusted and the post about how he feels he's more seen as more suspect as town than as mafia, it feels like it's trying a bit too hard to be seen as a complaining townie
Pzelda - Active and making reads and analysis. somewhat independent, with starting a vote for Samson but at least backing it up with decent rationale. looks a lot better now that Rakkoon's turned out town
Csargo - has a tendency to call out other people for inconsistencies and messy logic. has given a bit analysis of his own as well, though not a ton. I don't really like how he says he's voting based on gut or feelings
Gamezrule - quiet with only a few posts, has multiple times said he's lost/confused about what's going on, though this makes sense with finals, it's still suspicious and there isn't exactly much else to base an opinion on
Except for Argon, both of his top wolves aren't wolves. But only I am totally convinced I'm not, so... One thing note is this tendency to go after Argon. It will come up more than once.My top 3 wolves are LordArgon, topsecret, and Dolbster:
LordArgon - I still find his shenanigans involving literacy to be pretty suspect. It feels like it could be an indirect way to try and expose the town's power roles, which are probably more likely to be literate than a vanilla townie. His vote was pretty suspect too—he was the second person to vote for Rakkoon after Dolbster, and I find his reasoning to be pretty poor: he said that Rakkoon had "horrible logic" but didn't point out any examples or try to correct Rakkoon. It feels to me like mafia spotted a town misread and jumped on it to save the survivor and get a townie lynched.
topsecret - has started looking a lot worse today. all the jokeyness since he started coming under pressure feels a bit like an attempt to distract. Looking back at his latest list, it's starting to seem a bit more suspicious. The two people named mafia suspects are the most obvious calls that no one would fault him for or find suspicious, and several of the entries are very basic, just saying a player is playing like normal, or he likes how a player is playing, or that he feels good about a player without any actual evidence or analysis
Dolbster - pretty obvious why he's here, started the lynch against a townie. Could have been a mislynch, could have been mafia trying to fake a mislynch, regardless it still makes him a top suspect.
Special shoutout to GamezRule for missing the cut despite doing almost nothing all game.
GoldenKnight would have been on this list, but I'm less suspicious after his latest big post where he provided some solid, in-depth analysis on topsecret and Dolbster (and some rather less in-depth analysis on Raskol)
Here's what I'm getting out this. As he said earlier, he's going for Argon and Dolby. These are his two top suspects.This is why I’m leaning towards LordArgon today, if he flips mafia it’d make Dolbster a lot more likely to be town or vice-versa. With topsecret I think we’d get less information if we end up getting it wrong and we could go into day 3 on a tight schedule without much information to help.
Because if you and LA were a team, then that means mafia went 1 and 2 trying to get a townie lynched. I’m also less worried about the double mafia scenario because in that case then we’ve already gotten a mafia day 2 and we’ll have more time to figure stuff out. Double mafia isn’t impossible, it just needs the mafia to have been very aggressive on day 1, and even then, it’ll looks like a pretty good situation for town for day 3.
Talking to Dolby.
From here proceeds the Dolby/Argon flipping:
Vote: LordArgon
Unvote
Vote: Dolbster
There’s solid enough cases against either of them to consider a lynching, but tying things up can also give the added information about topsecret’s role. If Tak switches back we can get a 4-4 unless one of the non-voters decides to jump in.
I like this reasoning, and even as I come down wanting to find something, I still like most of his posts.Unvote
Vote: LordArgon
Claiming you have a special role but refusing to say what it is on the grounds that it only helps you and not the whole town is just bizarre. I still kinda want to get topsecret in a tie because, between a doctor, 2 masons, a dog, a tiebreaker, and whatever LordArgon is we have at least 5 non-vanilla townie roles claimed, potentially up to 7 if you count whoever started with the letter or you think the Visor had a power role as the priest
ing to say what it is on the grounds that it only helps you and not the whole town is just bizarre. I still kinda want to get topsecret in a tie because, between a doctor, 2 masons, a dog, a tiebreaker, and whatever LordArgon is we have at least 5 non-vanilla townie roles claimed, potentially up to 7 if you count whoever started with the letter or you think the Visor had a power role as the priest. That's quite a lot in a game that's supposedly heavy vanilla and I think topsecret is the one most likely to be lying.
*clearing things up because switching between pages mangles your post
Claiming you have a special role but refusing to say what it is on the grounds that it only helps you and not the whole town is just bizarre. I still kinda want to get topsecret in a tie because, between a doctor, 2 masons, a dog, a tiebreaker, and whatever LordArgon is we have at least 5 non-vanilla townie roles claimed, potentially up to 7 if you count whoever started with the letter or you think the Visor had a power role as the priest. That's quite a lot in a game that's supposedly heavy vanilla and I think topsecret is the one most likely to be lying.
This sounds like fishing. That's the most suspicious thing I've seen so far.Thinking back on LordArgon's literacy shenanigans on day 1, it could be that he started out with the letter and has some kind of shortcut victory condition in case it gets read. If that is the case, it makes sense that he doesn't want to admit to it, because it'd torpedo the odds of getting the shortcut.
Also @Timsup2nothin mind telling us to whom you're sending the letter during twilight so we can confirm its existence?
Mo' supposition.It's possible. It could also be some weird town/3P mix where you win if either town wins or your letter is read.
It guess it's possible that really it's just you who has a shortcut win and LA is something else, or it's a two-player third faction, but I think a multiple-person third faction is pretty unlikely in a game that's heavy vanilla, and getting a full claim out of LA about what his mysterious power that only serves himself is could help clear up confusion about the first idea. You pointing that out yourself makes me lean against it, but it's still a possibility to keep in consideration.
Argon, Argon, Argon. I'll say one thing: he's consistent with his ideas of who is a wolf.That's a good point, if LordArgon's just doing shenanigans and is unrelated, we don't actually have any guarantee that the letter is more of a help to town or mafia or if it's just general role information that could help either side. tbh you're kinda right that seems complicated and unlikely and it was orignially just a bit of random speculation but LordArgon posted right after me and just completely failed to address a situation he's central in. He's been all to happy to just let this situation go on despite having the easy opportunity to clean it up and I kinda want to get him on the stand for that alone.
Follows Tim with this vote (and one on Argon earlier).Unvote
Vote: GamezRule
We have like an hour left in the day and it seems pretty clear that LordArgon isn't happening fast enough, might as well get the information from tying up topsecret and GamezRule.
GZ has done almost nothing all game, I'm not sure if he's town or mafia but at least giving him the letter would force him to start making claims. I'm fine handing it Golden1Knight for similar reasons, though he's not quite as bad as GZ.
Low-hanging fruit.*GamezRule, yep
Interesting situation here.Yep, I'm literate. Also @Timsup2nothin looking back at my posts, I hadn't actually admitted it before you assumed I was literate, how did you know?
Wow I am really bad at that. My takeaways are:
1. He says he believes Argon is a wolf and does not deviate much.
2. Follows Tim on a couple votes, agitating Tim at one point.
3. Random suppositions on the letter. I've done stuff like this before, most profitably as a wolf, but also a townie.
4. Also willing to lynch GR (although who wasn't? I was willing)
5. Claims to be literate once Tim accidentally (?) calls him literate
