Labour and Tories both suffer setbacks

[ComradeDavo]

My impression is that the BNP is actually appealing to disgruntled voters on the left rather than the right. That is, poor, white, working-class families that supported Old Labour policies during the 1980s and have become strongly distrustful of all three major parties for their abandonment of statist-socialist views. Thus, they're for big government and government economic control, but very much afraid of social change. The BNP is actually far to the left on economics.

These days 'left' means as much socially liberal as it does economically socialist, so I would say they were tajking votes form the left at all. Plus whilst alot of fuss seems to be made about those Labour voters who have gone BNP in a few towns, across the country alot of their supporters are from the far-right types of the National Front or just plain racists.

Anyway, lets not make this a thread about the BNP, Labour should be more worried about the Lib Dems/Tories and the Tories worried about UKIP/Lib Dems.

 

[AxiomUk]

Interesting, I guess the best thing that ever happened to Lib Dems was the advent of Blair and 'New' Labour.

Well, the entire Labour movement's centre was originally in Glasgow, so it's not too surprising the far south of England is not too pro-Labour. In the modern world though, there's a lot more voting based less on political agenda but more on the practical benefits seen.

People want to vote Lib Dem because they've seen nothing good from Labour or the Conservatives. I doubt the Lib Dem's would do much better with some of the situations, and it's a hell of a blanket you've put over your eyes if you feel they would be genuinely better.

 

[colony]

People want to vote Lib Dem because they've seen nothing good from Labour or the Conservatives. I doubt the Lib Dem's would do much better with some of the situations, and it's a hell of a blanket you've put over your eyes if you feel they would be genuinely better.

Well right now I think that all 3 main parties might as well all be as bad as each other. Whichever party is the first to stop chasing headlines will most likely be the one that I vote for next time, but really I don't agree with many of the policies of any of the main parties. I might end up voting Lib-Dem though just to help keep a Labour MP out at the next elections.

 

[Cuivienen]

Anyway, lets not make this a thread about the BNP, Labour should be more worried about the Lib Dems/Tories and the Tories worried about UKIP/Lib Dems.

Frankly, I don't think ultimately the Tories have anything to worry about except themselves. Or, rather, an internal split. UKIP has little credibility with the general public and is widely perceived as a single-issue party, though they claim to have diversified their positions. While I expect that someone will have to benefit from disaffected Tory voters on the right, I don't think it will be exclusively or even largey UKIP. The English Democrats, for example, are in a prime position to exploit the West Lothian Question to their advantage and the disadvantage of the Tories, though it would likely restrict any future activities on the English Dems part to Tory strongholds.

The Tories also have little to worry about from the Lib Dems. I don't expect that the Lib Dems will lose much, if anything, back to the Conservatives next election, but on the same note I doubt that they will gain much from the Tories, either. Cameron's centrism/populism will stop any further bleeding of centrist Tory voters, and the alienated conservative voters are far more likely to switch to UKIP/BNP/NF/Eng Dems/various right-wing Independents than the Lib Dems. On the other hand, anti-Tory tactical voting and a hardening of the Lib Dem vote will allow the Lib Dems to hold on to what they have.

One position that could allow the Lib Dems to expand their share of the vote at the expense of the Tories (and, to a lesser extent, Labour) would be to take up the English Dem position of advocating an English National Assembly. This sidesteps the West Lothian Question, and I can hardly see the idea being unpopular in Scotland or Wales (although the Welsh might demand more power for the Welsh Assembly). It also plays into the Lib Dems' position of wanting to make political decisions as local as possible, and of course is a huge vote-getter in England. What are English (and Scottish and Welsh) Lib Dem supporters' thoughts on this?

 

[Mega Tsunami]

The Welsh vote was a fairly unique anti-Labour vote continued over from what happened at the General election but I fully expect Labour to win it back at the next General election when the Labourites realise that every seat will count.

As for Bromley, I am afraid it is another false dawn for the LibDems, another one of those “Return to your constituencies and prepare for Government” delusional results. I am afraid by-election results like that mean nothing for the LibDems, except to get their hopes up. At a GE the Tories would bother to turn up and Labour would return to voting for Labour. (just look at the turnout – only 40%, down from 64%.)

The opinion polls are more accurate than by-elections and they put the Tories slightly ahead of Labour (in the 35-40% area) with the LDs languishing in their usual 18% third place.

One position that could allow the Lib Dems to expand their share of the vote at the expense of the Tories (and, to a lesser extent, Labour) would be to take up the English Dem position of advocating an English National Assembly. This sidesteps the West Lothian Question, and I can hardly see the idea being unpopular in Scotland or Wales (although the Welsh might demand more power for the Welsh Assembly). It also plays into the Lib Dems' position of wanting to make political decisions as local as possible, and of course is a huge vote-getter in England. What are English (and Scottish and Welsh) Lib Dem supporters' thoughts on this?

England has already rejected regional assemblies and I don’t think any of us really want another layer of MPs anyway. Besides, the cost of an English Parliament would be horrendous and then what would be the point of Westminster? – It would not have very much to do at all and no-one, least of all the MPs, would want that.
Anyway, the Tories have started the ball rolling over the weekend by saying they want a Parliamentary debate on “English votes on English issues”
I started a thread on this a couple of weeks ago here
and this could have very interesting repercussions for the whole of the UK. To me this is all very much in the favour of the Tories if they managed to reduce Labour and LibDem power north of the border.
I doubt if the Scots would like it either as their MPs would be regarded as second class Westminster citizens. Indeed I see the SNP is now ahead of Labour in the polls in Scotland (30% v 28%) when a year ago they were miles behind (47% v 18%)

We have very interesting, even a little scary, times ahead of us as the UK becomes more and more ungovernable (Just look at this to see one example of why (imagining, if you would, a Tory Govt in power) :-


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5138858.stm

While energy policy is reserved to Westminster, Scottish Executive ministers could use planning powers to block new power stations.

 

[ComradeDavo]

Well, the entire Labour movement's centre was originally in Glasgow, so it's not too surprising the far south of England is not too pro-Labour. In the modern world though, there's a lot more voting based less on political agenda but more on the practical benefits seen.

People want to vote Lib Dem because they've seen nothing good from Labour or the Conservatives. I doubt the Lib Dem's would do much better with some of the situations, and it's a hell of a blanket you've put over your eyes if you feel they would be genuinely better.

Well, the thing about the Lib Dems is that they are the most idealogical out fo the 3 main parties, with that idealogy being of course the idealogy of freedom of the individual. This sets them asides from Labour, who have chopped and change dtheir so called socialist idealogy, and the Tories who are split between modernisers and the hardcore right-wing bunch.

 

[ComradeDavo]

Frankly, I don't think ultimately the Tories have anything to worry about except themselves. Or, rather, an internal split. UKIP has little credibility with the general public and is widely perceived as a single-issue party, though they claim to have diversified their positions. While I expect that someone will have to benefit from disaffected Tory voters on the right, I don't think it will be exclusively or even largey UKIP. The English Democrats, for example, are in a prime position to exploit the West Lothian Question to their advantage and the disadvantage of the Tories, though it would likely restrict any future activities on the English Dems part to Tory strongholds.

The Tories also have little to worry about from the Lib Dems. I don't expect that the Lib Dems will lose much, if anything, back to the Conservatives next election, but on the same note I doubt that they will gain much from the Tories, either. Cameron's centrism/populism will stop any further bleeding of centrist Tory voters, and the alienated conservative voters are far more likely to switch to UKIP/BNP/NF/Eng Dems/various right-wing Independents than the Lib Dems. On the other hand, anti-Tory tactical voting and a hardening of the Lib Dem vote will allow the Lib Dems to hold on to what they have.

One position that could allow the Lib Dems to expand their share of the vote at the expense of the Tories (and, to a lesser extent, Labour) would be to take up the English Dem position of advocating an English National Assembly. This sidesteps the West Lothian Question, and I can hardly see the idea being unpopular in Scotland or Wales (although the Welsh might demand more power for the Welsh Assembly). It also plays into the Lib Dems' position of wanting to make political decisions as local as possible, and of course is a huge vote-getter in England. What are English (and Scottish and Welsh) Lib Dem supporters' thoughts on this?

I think that the Tories should be worried about UKIP stealing some of their hardcore right vote. In our first past the post system, a few hundred votes can make a difference, and in some Tory seats their supporters either staying at home or turning to UKIP could see them embarressed.