Military size. How big is just right?

don't trust the power graph. on aggressive ai, it is very hard to keep up on military. therefore, if you want to attack, you have to priorities defense/attack. the ai's power graph always looks big but they tend to stack units evenly across most cities, so a big stack can take out many cities. on the other hand, you will have no problem in just letting a warrior defend those inner cities, so consequently what little power you do have can be concentrated on where it's needed in attack or defense.

siege weapons are also a big factor. they don't contribute a vast amount to the power graph but can severely weaken the opposition stack making it an easier target. don't neglect siege weapons, they are vital.

some opponents (Monty is famed for this) will build a gigantic stack in every city of rubbish and outdated units like jaguar warriors or longbowmen. despite the fact that at the right time they are effective but he often still has them when you are charging about with stacks of riflemen, grenadiers, cannons and cavalry. These will obliterate his puny force in seconds, despite his giant power graph.

Power graph, useful but not reliable.
 
Also in maps with enough sea tiles the AIs tend to spam frigates, which substantially inflate their power rating. These frigates may not have any use at all if you pull out a land war. And in fact if you can catch a break you may take out a whole stack of them by taking the city where they stay, and see the rating drop almost like 15-20% in one turn.

Some AI leaders, esp. Toku, set a very high priority on military techs (archery=> BW => IW => construction => metalcast/ horse-riding => machinery, this is almost his routine). These techs will blow up his rating by a lot, so he may only be as good as you. (But Toku is tough to deal with, probably one of the toughest if he has resources).
 
Hit F9 and look at the power graph. You should at least be higher than your target. The bigger the gap, the easier the war will be.

You don't really need more power than your opponent (at least at the level i play at (monarch) ) because the AI is so bad at war that you can get away with losing hardly any troops compared to them if you do it right.

The 2/3 that someone else mentioned seems about right... although ofc its always good to have more power :p
 
You don't really need more power than your opponent (at least at the level i play at (monarch) ) because the AI is so bad at war that you can get away with losing hardly any troops compared to them if you do it right.

The 2/3 that someone else mentioned seems about right... although ofc its always good to have more power :p

I think what Dave said was about how to avoid being DoW. If you have an aggressive neighbour and your relationship with him/her is worse than pleased, a gap of 1/3 rating is almost a guarantee for war.
 
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