Mump3 - AWDG Standard Pangaea, take 4

[Greebley]

I can play this on starting on Friday so no rush on it.

 

[Mumpulus]

1) 860 AD
Abandon Cuzco.

Cav barely kills German rifle. eCav kills Byz rifle. Cav kills Mongol LB. Cav kills Jap musket. [4-0]

Upgrade musket in Camur and in Noviomagus. Rush barracks in Hareid. Upgrade 4 cats. Upgrade knight in Alesia.

Switch builds (some musket builds got changed to rifles probably):
Entremont > Factory
Tabriz > Marketplace
Lugdunum > Cavalry
Nulaan > Library
Richborough > Cavalry
Daland > Library
Ratae > Library
Aged > University
Ebora > Library
Burdigala > Library
Catarac > Library
Tolosa > Library
Isca > Library

Sell barracks in Karakorum, sell walls in Curovernum, buy 12 shields in Lapurdum and MM to shave off 2 turns of Marketplace.

After reading comments on the forum, change research to Electricity.

IT
Lots of movement, our forward towns are bypassed.

Hareid: Barracks > Worker
Burdigala: Library > Cavalry
Rutu: Cannon > Worker

Shaved an extra turn off Elect. already

2) 870AD
eACav kills Mongol LB. eCav kills Byz rifle. vCav kill Byz cav. vCav kills Mongol LB. MDI army covers road crew and kills Incan cav. Knight army kills another and gets back to Hareid. *Cav from Hareid kills the last one clean and finds cover. vCav kills another Mongol LB, to clear the way for the army. vCav kills spear in Groningen. eCav kills another and captures Groningen, along with a worker. Start worker. [14-0]

Knight army moves into Groningen. Rifle from Camur covers our cav south of Groningen, there's a Jap LB that we can't get without exposing more units.

I have cavs left that could attack, but not enough to redline units. Upgrade 2 more cats and 3 more trebs.

Army moves out and pillages a road NW of the spices, just outside our territory. Capture the eastern worker on the last move. Intel:


It turns out Choy can only produce enough shields when in WLTKD; this will need more work than I anticipated. Rush the settler.

Switch temple builds:
Deva > Settler
Camur > Worker
Arausio > Cannon
Septum > Cannon

Switch Glanum to worker

IT
Movement only

Alesia: Cavalry > Worker
Choy: Settler > Worker
Ebora: Library > Factory

3) 880AD
eCav dies on 1hp German rifle. vCav kills him. vCav kills German cav. vCav kills Byz rifle. vCav kills berserk. vCav kills German rifle. eMDI dies on 1hp Jap musket. vCav kills him. eACav kills Jap LB. eCav kills Incan cav. vCav dies on 2hp Incan cav. vCav kills him. vCav barely kills 4hp berserk. eCav kills last berserk near Groningen. Cav army kills 2 vRifles in Arnhem without a scratch and razes it for a worker (forget to check how much gold we got). MDI army takes over in Hareid, knight army kills Incan cav. I forget about a German cav on Hareid mountain, so we'll probably loose a unit; cover everything. [28-3]

The Choy settler goes nearby to ICS just a bit.

IT
Japan drops a cav at Tabriz. Our *Cav defends against the German cav. [29-3]

Alesia: Worker > Factory
Lugdunum: Cavalry > Factory
Camu: Cavalry > Worker
Daland: Library > Factory

4) 890AD
Found Nemau at the front, start worker. Found Mongu in the back, start worker.

vCav barely kills Byz rifle. vCav kills German rifle. vCav kills Byz rifle. fresh vCav kills landed cav. 3hpCav kills berserk. eACav kills berserk. vCav kills berserk. eCav kills Viking rifle. 2 3hpCavs kill last 2 berserks in range. Finally capture Utrecht with a Dutch cat, killing 2 rifles. No gold. Start worker. Knight army kills 2 Incan rifles in the open. [43-3]

IT
viking cav shows up kills cav in Nemau. A Byz cav kills musket at Noviomagus. A cav in Hareid defends against a German cav. A Jap cav runs around to capture a slave near Utrecht. Another attacks our army in Utrecht and looses. A lot of cavs show up, from many civs. [45-5]

Nulaan: Library > Marketplace
Camu: Worker > Factory
Gergovia: Cavalry > Cavalry
Catarac: Library > Marketplace

Daland riots

5) 900AD
Pillage the Incan's only source of saltpeter.

vCav kills Byz rifle. 3hpCav kills Viking cav. vCav kills berserk. vRifle kills berserk. eACav kills last berserk. Knight army kills Incan cav. Pillage the iron road to hold up the remaining two. MDI army kills Jap cav. Cav army kills Incan cav 2SE of Utrecht, then moves NE to cover settler. Kills another 2 cavs from the Germans there. Yellow knight army block the only remaining access to Utrecht for the Incan cavs. I have to use cavs to cover our roading crew at the front now. [55-5]

Upgrade two trebs and musket in Noviomagus.

I have to use the northern ACav army to serve as MP in Alesia, I kid you not.

Start of second session

IT
Our luck in Hareid continues: our eCav and *GS defend against 2 Byz cavs. A German cav takes our MDI army in Utrecht to 1hp then dies. Two more German cavs kill 2 wounded units in Hareid. [58-7]

Hareid riots
Verul: Cavalry > Cavalry
Richborough: Cavalry > Cavalry
Glanum: Worker > Worker

6) 910AD
The situation in Hareid is very difficult. German cavs are still threatening it, as well as a Byz one covered by many rifles that we can't reach without exposing units.

eCav kills German cav. vCav kills the other one. No others in sight now, let's hope our exposed cav survives. vCav kills Incan cav and promotes (which is noteworthy because that hasn't been happingen a lot so far during this set). Bombard the Byz stack, a few cats actually hit. Attack: eCav kills rifle. vCav dies on vCav. vCav kills it. vCav kills rifle and promotes. vCav kills rifle. vCav kills LB. In the end I can free up the Cav army which kills Byz rifle. [67-8]

Railroad backbone between core and front is finished. I can now shuffle healing units to the back as MP, which is good, but means more work. Incense will come in next turn though.

IT
A German rifle and MDI die on our exposed cav, another rifle finally kills it. [69-9]

Karakorum: Settler > Worker
Ratae: Library > University
August: Cavalry > Factory
Tolosa: Library > University
Segusio: Settler > Worker
Deva: Settler > Worker
Camur: Worker > Worker

7) 920AD
We finally have a road to Hareid, and also to our incense town to be.

eCav kills Byz rifle. vCav kills Byz rifle and promotes. Clearing out the incense area: vCav kills Incan cav, vCav kills Incan cav, vCav dies on 2hp Incan cav, vCav kills Incan cav and promotes, vCav kills Incan cav.

Found Incense Town, start walls. Pillage the road on the spices near Noviomagus.

eCav kills Mongol spear at Hareid. vCav kills Byz rifle.

Continue clearing out the Incans near Incense Town: vCav dies on cav, vCav kills cav, vCav kills cav, 4hp*Cav dies on same cav as before, Knight army finishes him off. [80-12]

The new Incan capital is disconnected.

Lux to 0% and a lot of MP shuffling.

IT
Only one attack: an Incan cav dies on our vPike that was covering our worker stack (along with many other units ). Only 2 enemy units within our borders now (not counting the many ships). [81-12]

Choy: Worker > Worker
Odense: Settler > Worker
Lapurdum: Marketplace > Cannon
Lindum: Cannon > Worker

This I have never ever had before: our palace gets a nice lawn, three extra stories and spires

Research time drops by 2 turns, so maybe some other civ has it.

8) 930AD
eCav kills Byz cav at Noviomagus. eCav kills German rifle on southern yellow dot. eCav barely kills another.

Found Cheers, start walls.

vCav kills Incan cav at Utrecht. eCav kills berserk at Cheers. vCav retreats on 2hp Byz rifle. vCav kills him. Cav army kills two rifles in The Hague. 3hp vCav kills LB and razes the town. MDI army kills berserk near Amsterdam. I misclick a musket. [91-12]

Germany is horseless again. They have electricity.

IT
The misclicked musket is killed by a Byz cav. [91-13]

Nemau: Worker > Worker

9) 940AD
Found Den Haag, start walls. Found New Amsterdam, start worker.

eCav kills Byz rifle. vCav kills LB. Cav army kills two rifles and razes Amsterdam. vCav kills Jap cav at Den Haag. 2 eCavs kill the last two they have there.

The Incans are now without horses and coal, the Germans without saltpeter.

Break to get some sleep

eCav and vCav kill 2 berserks at New Amsterdam. vCav avenges our musket. I end up with a healty vCav that has nothing to do, so I kill a spear in Almarikh. MDI army kills another and I raze the city because I like the hill next to it better to settle. Mongols down to 1 city, 2 more slaves for us. [103-13]

Disband two of those useless cats in Cheers.

IT
Loose musket and pike covering a worker stack to German and Incan cav. [103-15]

Burdigala: Cavalry > Cavalry
Isca: Library > Factory

10) 950AD
Found Marsh Town, start worker.

eCav kills German rifle at Cheers. eCav kills Viking rifle at Marsh Town. eCav dies on 2hp German cav near Marsh Town. vCav kills him. 2 vCavs kill 2 Viking rifles and both promote. vCav kills berserk.

2 rCavs and 1 vCav from the Japanese are revealed directly S of Rotterdam. vCav kills the first, knigth army kills the other two. eCav kills Mongol LB near Noviomagus.

Near Incense Town: vCav kills German cav, knight army kills another. [115-16]

MM notes

• Verul was taken off a BG just this turn, needs an extra 2spt to get to 5 turn cavs.
• Axima has been put on a diet for an extra scientist, should be prepared to grow again by the time the settler completes.
• Nemau can grow in 2 by irrigating an railing a grassland next turn, or by firing its specialist.
• Choy can produce 7spt at size 6 and WLTKD; it needs constant attention to produce workers in 3 turns. I've made MM in towns near it secondary to this.
• Segusio can use policemen to gain a shield from time to time.
• Lapurdum has been configured for max shields just this turn; you may want to shortrush and/or switch to something else. Its neighbours can also use some more shields though...

Research down to 60%, Electricity is in 1. You can change 1 scientist to taxman, but not 2.

Tactical notes
I've left cats in three stacks with full movement: native stack on a road, native stack on a railroad, and a foreign one on a railroad. All are fortified except 1 per stack to draw attention.

Cavs in core towns are either healing and/or have attacked already. They serve as MP for the IT, so be carefull if you move units out. The cav army is healing in Camur.

Near the Incense Town - Cheers region I've left the knight army and a cav with (some) movement. I'll indicate some more details in a picture.

Near Erdenet I've left all units with full movement, so you can decide what to do next there. I was hoping I could eliminate the Mongols, but the German rifle stack near Cheers got in the way.

Near Den Haag, I put the rifle on the mountain to assess the situation before using the knight armies.

> Save <

 

[Mumpulus]

1. The army at Rotterdam started here, so the area in the circle is confirmed clear. Cavalry coming from just behind that area may still reach Incense town, so keep some units in it.
2. Our pillaging ACav army saw the German cavs pass by; there shouldn't be many more in the blue oval than what is visible right now, but there may be some.
3. The Byzantine rifles were targetting Noviomagus until just 1 or 2 turns ago. They seem to have shifted their attention to Hareid (or Utrecht) now.
4. The German rifles that are in our way for the final Mongol offensive. There is a road under the stack that we can use. Most in that stack will be healed, and will move in the IT. The single redlined rifle actually moved past Hareid after being pinged once, and was redlined this turn.
5. I can't count.
6. Our intrepid galley never got attacked or bombarded, and can gather some more intel on the nearby Byzantine lands in a few turns.
7. The Japanese and Byzantine fleet in the far north has just been sailing on during my entire set. Nothing was dropped, there hasn't been any bombardment at all. Are they headed to the northern side of our choke? Who knows?
8. The one unit threatening us from the North. I don't expect it to attack, but even if it does, we should be ok.

 

[Mumpulus]

Roster
Mumpulus - just played
Greebley - Up (will start on Friday)
Own - On deck
Mizar MIA
ThERat

There's plenty of time to discuss what's next. I have no time now, but I'll try to post my thoughts tomorrow night, which should still be before Greebley starts.

 

[Own]

It turns out Choy can only produce enough shields when in WLTKD

This cracked me up for some reason.

Am I blind or something? Did you not mention it when you got a leader in your turnlog, or am I just tired and skip lines without realizing it? It seems like you got a bajillion elite victories. I actually just counted 24 elite wins, and apparently no leader. That means you had a 78% chance of getting a leader that round (1-(15/16) to the 24th power). Tough luck.

We're actually expanding again. Later I'm going to look through some old AW SG's where the human player stopped expanding for a while and see the results of those (I can think of two of the top of my head, HNDY01 as Babylon and another Handy SG on AWDG std. pan as China).

If you're feeling impatient, I have all the time in the world from now until friday, but a hockey thing will severly limit my time from friday to sunday. But that's fine if we want to keep it the same, that's fine, Greebley's pretty good at the whole AW thing, something worth waiting for.

 

[Greebley]

Go ahead and play Own if you wish. I don't mind a swap at all. If now is better for you then go for it.

 

[Own]

I got it, but can't play imediately. In a hof attempt of mine I planned to give away the GLib I built and take it back later for rails and cav, but I gave away the wrong city, so I've PMed superslug to see if it's ok to reload, and I must keep the game up, as not doing so will give evidence of reloading w/o permission first. Long story.

 

[Mumpulus]

Sure Own, go ahead and play.

Like I said somewhere in my report, I even got very few promotions. Some losses were also due to very unlikely RNG results, though I can't complain in that department because I got some unlikely wins too.

It turns out I have just a little time now to give you my thoughts on how to proceed:

• Keep playing defense until you get a leader. Then take the two cav armies to take it to the Byz first, then dze Germans. Taking out the Mongols is a nice bonus, but not at all necessary, unless you run out of space to settle. I only went for the Mongols in my 9th turn, because I had some units on unemployment.
• An additional lux would be nice, so expansion towards Rotterdam would be my first goal, while waiting on that leader at least.
• Germany will run out of cavalry soon; when we go for the Byz, there will be no strong opponents left on the southeastern part of the landmass. If we could drive a wedge through the continent between Birka and Stockholm, that would give us more control over the other three civs while we finish Byz and Germany.
• I've been going very heavy on infra. Because I thought Greebley would follow me, I thought I'd give him a nice ride with very few units available. Now that Own will be playing, I'm even happier about the situation, keeping in mind what he left me in Own11. Seriously though: you may want to switch some builds to military, I wouldn't mind. It was a juggling act throughout my turns, but I never felt really threatened.

 

[Own]

Keep playing defense until you get a leader. Then take the two cav armies to take it to the Byz first, then dze Germans. Taking out the Mongols is a nice bonus, but not at all necessary, unless you run out of space to settle. I only went for the Mongols in my 9th turn, because I had some units on unemployment.

Yeah, good idea. I really wish the gamblers fallacy wouldn't apply to this game. We'd be due for a leader. I think I'll go for the Mongols though. Seeing that little screen saying "We've destroyed the "x" Mongols, Sir" is very satisfying and it's convienient for that MDI army near it.

An additional lux would be nice, so expansion towards Rotterdam would be my first goal, while waiting on that leader at least.

Yes, of course. I'll wait for the artillery support on its way. Then capture it until a settler is available to replace.

Germany will run out of cavalry soon; when we go for the Byz, there will be no strong opponents left on the southeastern part of the landmass. If we could drive a wedge through the continent between Birka and Stockholm, that would give us more control over the other three civs while we finish Byz and Germany.

Agreed.

I've been going very heavy on infra. Because I thought Greebley would follow me, I thought I'd give him a nice ride with very few units available. Now that Own will be playing, I'm even happier about the situation, keeping in mind what he left me in Own11. Seriously though: you may want to switch some builds to military, I wouldn't mind. It was a juggling act throughout my turns, but I never felt really threatened

I'll probably switch an infra build or two. Not factories though, we'll need those. You've left me with plenty. I'm cool with only having a cav or two when we've got a million artiller and rails to place them wherever we please. We're only up against slow moving rifles and a cav or two here and there.

Btw, you're up in Own11, you may be a little more pleased with what I left you this time .

I'll only play 5 turns, got to run very soon, will play one or 2 tonight and finish up in the morning. Is today wedn, thurs or fri?

 

[Mumpulus]

I'll wait for the artillery support on its way.

Actually, those artillery near Swamp Town were put there to handle an incoming attack. If you ask me, it's better to keep them for defense. Trebs and cats fare very badly on those many rifles. With the very low number of troops we have, I often found that the huge stack of cats was just sufficient to ping units to make them retreat. The cav army on its own should do fine on the small towns in the vicinity.

And today is Wednesday, Own.

 

[Ansar]

5. I can't count.

lurker's comment:

 

[ThERat]

excellent progress

Once we get RP, things should get much better. We must make sure none of the AI's ever gets infantry. If Germany is getting RP as well, we need to take them out first.

 

[Own]

The steam roller is gathering momentum.

Pre-turn- Sometimes I wish Mumpulus didn't micromanage PERFECTLY all the time. I'm trying to
get pike support up to the front, so I'm looking for an unneeded MP, but there are none. So I have to shuffle
some already moved elites back down for a turn. What I'll do next turn if the pikes I exchanged them for die,
I don't know, probably hire scientists. Switch one scientist to tax collector. Check MM every city. Swap tiles
between Alesia and Catarac. Change Ratae from Univ to cannon. It would give us a whopping 4 beakers. I
spend 5 minutes looking for the town "Nemau." Change Tolosa from Univ to cav. Make a few adjustments, not
errors really, just my preference of emphazising food over shields and vice versa. Now for some fighting. Cav
near Incense Town takes out German redlined rifle unscathed. No promotion. Change Verul from cav to a rifle.

IBT- Lots of byz cav approach. Retreat a german cav, lose a pike to an Incan cav.

1. Electricity to RP. At max SCI it's 10 turns. Lots of builds, can't remember all of them, a few workers, a rifle,
a settler, and a market. Attack Rotterdam, the dyes town with our knight army. Is the army attack bonus just
a myth or something? The knight army's attack should be 6.6666 while the rifles defense should be 8.1. The
knight army killed it but lost about 14 hp doing so. Probably waited for artillery support . RR to get a new
cannon to the front at infinite speed. Bombard lots of cav to one hp, kill them all. Get a leader-



Shuffle wounded cav for fully healed ones at MP, boy that is tough work. Unfortunately I got good battle luck
so there's not many wounded to send back, but plenty fully healed elites that I would like to use. Btw that
leader made an army, which I loaded with four vet cavs, one was 3 hp. They are sent towards Byzantium.
Shuffle tiles thru about four cities to get Ebora to get an extra shield when it's wounded MP comes. Check
on Choy, alls running smooth. Move lots of workers back to the core. RR to get Alesia to 27 spt, when it
gets a factory it will make 40 spt. Rush walls in incense town. After pillaging German wines, the AC army
is teaming up with the knight army to raze Smyrna. Almost forgot, advance the cav armies towards Trebizond.



IBT- Rifleman goes on offense and kills a pike. Nulaan riots. Weird, I saved before hitting enter and loaded the
save into mapstat, no potential riots were mentioned. The Vikes land a zerker.

2. Lots of builds, mostly workers. Raze Trebizond. Attack Erdenet. Some railroading, both Alesia and Entremont
will be 2 turn cav builders after their factories. Kill that zerk. Bombard lots of cav that didn't quite reach our
cities, then exterminate them with elites. This happens



It makes an army, it loads up, and heads for Rotterdam. This time I'll give it artillery support if there's any xtra
from bombarding a stack of rifles. There's no excess. We're stretched really thin here, I just barely have enuf
units to cover our artillery, cities, and MP.

IBT- Retreat 2 cav, one german one byz, kill another byz one. Lots of cav appear as usual. The byz found
a junk town next to where Trebizond was razed. Verul riots . I no longer trust mapstat.

3. I do the easy stuff first. Capture Rotterdam, we'll have dyes once we hook them up. I'm tired of MP shuffling.
Capture Erdenet. The Mongols are no more. Raze Smyrna. Entremont factory > cav (2 turns) . Georgovia
cav > cav. Lots of workers are built. Clear more units out of the battlefield. Clear units inbetween us and
Rotterdam and assemble a roading team. When killing a zerk this happens:



I hate it when I do this: I get a team of 6 workers to rail, I click the rail button too many times, and it makes
another worker build a fortress . The leader makes an empty army. Choy is difficult to MM.

IBT- Byz capture Erdenet, didn't realize their cav could reach it.

4. Dyes are hooked up!!! Happiness problems have vanished. Lower SCI. Still nobody has RP. Alesia facotry
> cav, lots of worker and settler builds. Found Agedicum. Found Eboracum up north. It appears as though
the Germans have run out of cav. Use a knight army to clear some rifles to make way for a RRing crew to
Agedicum, but it's still too dangerous so they just rail the core. Gather some MP spears and send them to
the front. Raze that Byz junk town.

IBT- a spear is killed by a german cav, lose a cannon. Incan cav dies.

5. Entremont Rifle > cav. Some workers and a settler are built. Two cities that didn't have markets riot, oops.
Capture Erdenet. Capture Caesarea, let another cav army go by to pillage Constantinople, then abandon it.
More of the usual, bombard, kill, bombard, kill. Change Verul to a market. Still nobody has RP. Do some
RRing to new towns, and see some settlers out. I glanced at every city every turn for obvious stuff like more
food than needed for growth or working low food tiles in corrupt cities but there's probably lots of subtle
inefficiencies if you're interested, Greebley.



We're going for conquest, right?

Roster-
Mumpulus
Greebley- up
Own- just played
Mizar- MIA
ThERat- on deck

 

[Greebley]

I think grabbing the lands to the East while holding the narrow choke to the north looks the way to go. I will be working towards that.

I would say Conquest unless we find a size 1 island - is this the game that had one? I can't remember.

Might build a boat or two if we want Conquest to make sure there aren't island cities.

 

[Mumpulus]

I'm looking for an unneeded MP, but there are none.

Shuffle wounded cav for fully healed ones at MP, boy that is tough work.

We're stretched really thin here, I just barely have enuf units to cover our artillery, cities, and MP.

I'm tired of MP shuffling.

Choy is difficult to MM.

Mwuhahah

I click the rail button too many times, and it makes another worker build a fortress

I always press 'R'. You can get the same problem, but inadvertently starting a road mostly isn't such a problem. Of course, then you have to make sure not to press the 'E' instead. I hear some players also make that mistake sometimes

Found Agedicum. Found Eboracum.

Aged & Agedicum, Ebora & Eboracum. It seems the shortening of those nice Celtic names has stopped, and we now have "duplicate" cities. Of course, those new cities won't need to be mentioned by name so often as their counterparts during the early game, so no problem really.

We can look at it in a positive way: if ever by some freak occurence we loose one of those core cities, we have some redundancy now to cope with that. Some people occasionally like extra redundancy once in a while.

Is the army attack bonus just a myth or something?

That reminds me: we still haven't built our Military Academy.

We're going for conquest, right?

That's what I proposed earlier, but I didn't know about the Japanese one tile island then (yes Greebley, it's this game that has it).

I think grabbing the lands to the East while holding the narrow choke to the north looks the way to go. I will be working towards that.

Yes. And maybe shift attention to the Germans for a few turns. Taking Hannover will ensure no more cavs for them.

This game is in the bag I think. If the team doesn't feel like waiting for marines, I'm fine with domination, but I would like to take down all cities on the mainland if possible.

I think the heavy MM-days are almost over at least. We'll be able to stabilize quite a lot of cities now or in the near future. Just managing growth in our fringes remains...

Sometimes I wish Mumpulus didn't micromanage PERFECTLY all the time.

Gee, thanks. Ok, I'll continue the heavy MM then.

 

[Own]

We're stretched really thin here, I just barely have enuf units to cover our artillery, cities, and MP.

Mwuhahah

Don't get cocky, that was the doing of the leader luck god, his armies enlisted all of my cav . I had more cav than I needed before I got 3 MGLs in 20 elite victories (anybody know how to find the probability of getting exactly 3 MGL's in 20 elite wins with HE? The probability of getting at least one is 82.45%.)

at your post .

 

[ThERat]

nice progress...now, who has currently all the money in the world?
If Germany is still rich, we should take them out to speed up our research to RP.

 

[Greebley]

BTW, I didn't state it explicitly but I got it will start tomorrow. Just finished up GR17

 

[RFHolloway]

(anybody know how to find the probability of getting exactly 3 MGL's in 20 elite wins with HE? The probability of getting at least one is 82.45&#37;.) .

almost exactly 15%

(20*19*18)/(3*2*1)*p^3*(1-p)^17 where p is the probability of sucess
or more generally

n!/(n-s)!s!*p^s*(1-p)^(n-s)

n number of battles
s number of leaders
p probability of a leader (1/12 in this case)
! is the factorial operation so 6! = 1*2*3*4*5*6 or 720

 

[Own]

almost exactly 15%

(20*19*18)/(3*2*1)*p^3*(1-p)^17 where p is the probability of sucess
or more generally

n!/(n-s)!s!*p^s*(1-p)^(n-s)

n number of battles
s number of leaders
p probability of a leader (1/12 in this case)
! is the factorial operation so 6! = 1*2*3*4*5*6 or 720

Wow, that's impressive. I think I get it.

So I guess the P(4 leaders in 15 elite wins)=(15*14*13*12)/(4*3*2*1)*(1/12)^4*(11/12)^11? 2.5&#37;, that sounds right.